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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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The Canuck is relatively toasty....

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

 

 

Tons of very strong members in there, if true, this thing is going northwest and nothing can stop it.

 

LOL, so much for the "seasonally adjusted Jet Stream theory"..GEM looks like a carbon copy of Dec 4-6 N MN special

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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And this storm will only work on moving the baroclinic zone to the north

 

these are the tracks storms normally take in November ,not mid January!

 

But...  "On an interesting note, Paducah KY received 7.1" of snow this week, (including 5PM climate report today) almost as much as their annual average of 9.1"

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nobody's really freaking out. Just commenting based on what we're seeing.

It's also not like what everyone is saying is false. Many of these observations are straight true when it comes to a strong system.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I think the major shifts (more than 100 miles north or south) are now over and what the 12z European showed will be fairly close to the final outcome (again, within 100 miles either way).

 

The blizzard track from NE Nebraska through SE SD (including Sioux Falls)...up through Minneapolis...then the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and, of course the UP of Michigan has considerable historical climatological precedent...as many, many storms have taken that path.

 

It is still possible that Lincoln, Omaha and, to a lesser extent, Des Moines could fall under the heavy snow band...but I would not expect anything south and east of there.

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I think the major shifts (more than 100 miles north or south) are now over and what the 12z European showed will be fairly close to the final outcome (again, within 100 miles either way).

 

The blizzard track from NE Nebraska through SE SD (including Sioux Falls)...up through Minneapolis...then the Arrowhead of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and, of course the UP of Michigan has considerable historical climatological precedent...as many, many storms have taken that path.

 

It is still possible that Lincoln, Omaha and, to a lesser extent, Des Moines could fall under the heavy snow band...but I would not expect anything south and east of there.

I agree. Besides a couple of minor ones,models are coming to a general consensus. Minor shifts will still happen as additional data comes out.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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