1/11 - 1/13 CO Low/Lower Lakes Cutter??

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright...is there a late game dynamic system coming into play for the MW/Lower Lakes??  Suddenly, the models are honing in on a CO Low that tracks near the TX Panhandle and takes a track due east through the S Plains/S MW and then cuts up the OHV.  Thermals are marginal but I'm seeing some signs that the storm may be phasing early than previously thought and farther NW than just a few days ago.  Let's discuss this potential potent late week system!  

 

0z GEFS...

 

0z EPS...I'm seeing the EPS showing more members with snow down near KC and @Clinton.  Last minute surprise?  

 

0z Euro Control...

[MIKEKC]

I like the trends overnight for KC to see some snow Wednesday night, but, as usual, thermals will be in question. 

Can't it just be cold and snow in KC? Why can't it snow this morning, it was 24 degrees and frosty. Why can't the clouds and snow move in right now???  

Might hit 60 here in KC today and tomorrow. 

Plenty of winter left, we'll get some snows. 

[tStacsh]

@jaster220  Low magnet.  Just think how much more bitter I would be about winter if I lived in Detroit.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

I like the trends overnight for KC to see some snow Wednesday night, but, as usual, thermals will be in question. 

Can't it just be cold and snow in KC? Why can't it snow this morning, it was 24 degrees and frosty. Why can't the clouds and snow move in right now???  

Might hit 60 here in KC today and tomorrow. 

Plenty of winter left, we'll get some snows. 

Euro look ok for a few inches of snow let's keep the good trends going.

[sumweatherdude]

Jumps right over KC on this run.  Good stuff. 

 

[bud2380]

Looks like this thing isn't going to really crank up until it's over Michigan.  So much warm air in place, even areas on the good side of the low, aren't getting hit that hard.  Last week I said let's wait a week and see if models show anything good.  For much of us, may as well wait another week.  Awful pattern right now.  

[tStacsh]

Too warm.  Even if that solution happened, Sloppy wet snow/mix followed by melting and rain.  

[bud2380]

Euro showing surface temps in the mid 30s on the snow side of this.  Just can't accumulate much in that.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Haven't been following much lately, way to much basketball to attend or coach.  Forecasts are not too enthusiastic about much accumulation around here.  Hopefully a little rain.  I guess we have to wait and see if later January on brings us back to winter.

[Tom]

12z Euro...stat padder?

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...stat padder?

Dead on bullseye IMBY.  No thanks.  

[Tom]

12z EPS...

 

 

12z Euro Control...

[jaster220]

As expected, slop nuisance event here at best. Days ago I posted wouldn't be model watching for 10 days to get 2" of slop. Looks like I was too optimistic

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON and GFS both way southeast, nothing for Michigan.

[Clinton]

0z Euro on it's own for the most part with this storm for producing winter weather.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro on it's own for the most part with this storm for producing winter weather.

Ya, no doubt about it!  We are literally inside 48 hours and the differences between all the models is really sad in this era of global modeling.  In any event, I got a feeling this storm will be a "nowcast" type of system due to the timing/strengthening of this storm.  

The CAM's are developing the SLP much earlier over across the C Plains which bodes well for more snow.  We shall see if today's 12z suite show some consistency.

I'm really not expecting much over here...what could have been a fantastic OHV cutter gone to waste given the lack of any cold around.  

 

0z GEFS...the main band of precip is literally off by more than a 100 miles...

 

 

0z EPS...

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, no doubt about it!  We are literally inside 48 hours and the differences between all the models is really sad in this era of global modeling.  In any event, I got a feeling this storm will be a "nowcast" type of system due to the timing/strengthening of this storm.  

The CAM's are developing the SLP much earlier over across the C Plains which bodes well for more snow.  We shall see if today's 12z suite show some consistency.

I'm really not expecting much over here...what could have been a fantastic OHV cutter gone to waste given the lack of any cold around.  

 

0z GEFS...the main band of precip is literally off by more than a 100 miles...

 

 

0z EPS...

model mayhem, especially when there is not any true cold air to be found. Storms aren't pulled NW in a warm air regime. Euro trying to show what "should happen" given track and time of year. This kind of season is why I moved N back in Sept of '90. Winters of 87/88/89/90 where mostly trash in SEMI where I was living at the time. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

model mayhem, especially when there is not any true cold air to be found. Storms aren't pulled NW in a warm air regime. Euro trying to show what "should happen" given track and time of year. This kind of season is why I moved N back in Sept of '90. Winters of 87/88/89/90 where mostly trash in SEMI where I was living at the time. 

Looks like tonight the Euro and GFS agree on some accumulating snow for SE Michigan.  For Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri the Euro and some of the Hi-Res models bring just enough cold air down combined with snow falling while it's dark to produce a wet inch or two of snow.

[Up_north_MI]

28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like tonight the Euro and GFS agree on some accumulating snow for SE Michigan.  For Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri the Euro and some of the Hi-Res models bring just enough cold air down combined with snow falling while it's dark to produce a wet inch or two of snow.

That middle map has our place down state in northern St Clair county getting a foot of snow lol.

[Tom]

It appears the UKIE had the right idea a few days ago taking the southern route and not showing much snow at all.  On the contrary, the Euro did horribly with this storm inside 3 days.  Kuddo's to the GFS/GEFS and UKIE as those models I think handled it much better.

While not much snow with this system, there will be good moisture coming with it across the OHV and blustery winds on the back side of the storm.  Maybe some light snow will fly here Thu PM into Friday the 13th.

 

0z Euro.

 

 

[tStacsh]

Looks like it was a big whiff for the Euro on the track a couple days out.  Is it me, or are the models getting worse in the medium range?  Maybe the active pattern is messing with them.  Either way, I'll be snowless now for another week.  That will put us about 20 days into January with less than 1/2" of snow.  Think we have officially a trace this calendar year. 

48 days until March.  

[Niko]

So far, this is how this thing is looking. Too bad there is no real cold air around for this storm, but, hey, some snow is better than no snow and w/ colder air following this system, any snow, will be otg for a good part of the weekend. Its going to at least look and feel wintry for some.

The track of a storm and limited cold air will lead to a rather narrow zone of 1-3 inches of snow from central and northern Kansas Wednesday night to southeastern and central Michigan and northern Ohio Thursday night, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. In much of this swath, the storm will begin as rain before transitioning to snow. During this time, accumulating snow is likely to stay north of St. Louis.

[jaster220]

Another dud - shocked!

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Another dud - shocked!

Agreed! I can’t believe we had a gusty north wind all night long with a storm in the middle of January and the temps was marginal for snow. We had a sneeze of snow early this morning that will be gone by noon today.  Here we are in the middle of January and we have 3 more storm systems for next week that all look to be rain storms! 

[jaster220]

Oh wait! Just about to go into model cyber-world to enjoy my modeled cyber-storm. Just found out they have an air terminal there (KRIP) so I decided to fly. See ya all when I get back!

(and somehow NOH manages a WWA, lol)

[Tom]

Geeze, I didn't realize this storm was going to have such a huge Severe Wx threat down in the SE U.S.  Gosh, you have to wonder what this storm system (among others) will produce during the Spring season.  I got a feeling the OHV/MW will be a big target this year.

[jaster220]

Dust in the Wind  here

[tStacsh]

I saw a couple snow grains fall this morning.  So it wasn't completely a bust...

[Tom]

ORD picked up a whopping 0.2" of snow yesterday as we had on/off light snow showers coming down the lake.  As sad as this sounds, it did "sorta" feel like Winter for a day. 

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

ORD picked up a whopping 0.2" of snow yesterday as we had on/off light snow showers coming down the lake.  As sad as this sounds, it did "sorta" feel like Winter for a day. 

Over here it was a "mood dusting" kind of day. I think we got mostly SHSN via help from Huron. Felt like a Nov event really. Last winter DEC was the warm and snowless wonder while this year it looks like JAN will take that award.