February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The recent talk of the major flip in the weather pattern during the opening days of February has constituted the start of this thread a little earlier than normal.  IMO, and with more modeling support, my earlier call of a "Ferocious Feb Open" to this month is certainly on the table.  There is a lead system that kick starts the BN temp pattern but we are far from illustrating any sort of exact details of who will see snow or mix and/or rain.  However, post system, the overall theme is cold with multiple waves of energy coming off the PAC that will have to be monitored.  I do not believe this will be a boring pattern for various regions....(although, it may be for some regions on here)...let's discuss....

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z GFS trending towards more of a developed SLP along the arctic front which comes out of the TX Panhandle and shoots up towards the Lower Lakes...I'm digging this trend and fits the 500mb analog maps I have been showing for this period...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018012412/216/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

@ Jaster, where do we sign please????  

 

 

12z GGEM showing something similar...

 

[Tony]

February looks good from a distance but once we get closer it will most likely change. Only pessimistic because of what has happened so far this winter even though everything seems to be lining up for an active start to the month. Won't get too excited until February 1st arrives and all is still on track.

[jaster220]

February looks good from a distance but once we get closer it will most likely change. Only pessimistic because of what has happened so far this winter even though everything seems to be lining up for an active start to the month. Won't get too excited until February 1st arrives and all is still on track.

 

Fully understand your position and I get excited by those maps at my own risk, lol. But, as if to convince Self, my post in the other thread regarding how suddenly Feb has replaced both Jan and March as our favored month for a Big Dog, these "tele's" may be "telling" for us to finally see this pattern go our way!

[indianajohn]

Since Chicago and NWI (lake county) don't have too many 10" + snowstorms it gonna  be fun to track this......even though being the bulls eye this far out is never good 

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, where do we sign please????  

 

 

12z GGEM showing something similar...

 

 

Love the GFS..wowza, and only 9 days..   Who said the DACA for Dreamers program was cancelled?? 

[jaster220]

Since Chicago and NWI (lake county) don't have too many 10" + snowstorms it gonna  be fun to track this......even though being the bulls eye this far out is never good 

 

But we can enjoy this til the next model runs! Don't be such a wet blanket..

[jaster220]

Prediction..If this continues for more than 3 model runs, Neb peeps will be saying this thread shoulda been titled the Chicago and S Lake's thead

[jaster220]

Since Chicago and NWI (lake county) don't have too many 10" + snowstorms it gonna  be fun to track this......even though being the bulls eye this far out is never good 

 

Obi-wan will guide this home..have faith

[Niko]

February looks good from a distance but once we get closer it will most likely change. Only pessimistic because of what has happened so far this winter even though everything seems to be lining up for an active start to the month. Won't get too excited until February 1st arrives and all is still on track.

I agree!

[NEJeremy]

Prediction..If this continues for more than 3 model runs, Neb peeps will be saying this thread shoulda been titled the Chicago and S Lake's thead

Nope, you won't hear that from me! No more condescending talk about how bad the weather has been! I apologize to anyone I offended last night with my skepticism for the long range pattern. After all we did double our yearly snowfall total with that last storm that was supposed to miss us. We're now about a 1/4 of the way to our yearly average with the snowiest 2 months of the year coming. It'll be pretty easy to make up those deficits.

Lock it in, it's only 10 days away   We'll get the next one!

Tom is the person here that watches the models the closest and I've been on this forum for at least 5+ years, so when Tom says this is the best pattern he has EVER seen, you can't help but to be excited! I know not everyone is going to get hit, but maybe this forum will finally have one of those 3 foot snowstorm for a big area on the forum that when we see on a model run, we always laugh at. From the sound of it, this will be the pattern that could maybe deliver one of those beasts!

[Niko]

@ Jaster

Be careful you don't get sucked into those glorious maps again. You do not want to keep getting disappointed. Just enjoy the maps. If they are the same a day prior to the storm, then, heck ,start jumping up and down.   

[gimmesnow]

Well, the torch that was on the extended is now gone, whatever that's worth. That rain obliterated my ski hill, they got 5 to 8 on top of solid ice now.

[Tom]

12z Euro has a swath of 6-12” from STL/INDY/CLE...on the road so no maps available

[indianajohn]

12z Euro has a swath of 6-12” from STL/INDY/CLE...on the road so no maps available

GFS has been on a roll lately Euro been playing catch up.........

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Come back north!

[Tom]

12z EPS expanded the snow shield father NW into IA/WI. At this range, IL/IN/MO/MI posters look great.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah enjoy your storm, you earned it after a rough January.

[Madtown]

I'll get excited 24hrs out until then #wintercxl #2018/19gottabebetter

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly, even after getting this last storm, I still feel like this was just another miss lol. A winter storm warning that didn't feel like one. Even with how much wind there was we got this much from the Christmas clipper. Still need a direct hit with a big storm. Hoping this one can come back north. Plenty far away.

[Jaycee]

Prediction..If this continues for more than 3 model runs, Neb peeps will be saying this thread shoulda been titled the Chicago and S Lake's thead

 

Oh gosh, not you too the Nebraska hate train is at full capacity already!

 

In all seriousness, I get as emotional as anyone when it comes to this and I hope I haven't attributed to this poor mental image of Nebraskans as a whole (even though I probably have). That said, I hope sometime we can find peace with you guys to our east, there are some awesome people out here that have been on this forum with me since 2009, before it was even called theweatherforums (westernusawxforums baby!) and several others as that offer constructive ideas rather than just spewing crap on here. I don't want those poor behaviors of some to tarnish those who are here to discuss weather. Of course emotion is unavoidable to some extent, but maybe we can just get stricter with warnings/bans instead to help, because it feels like we're not all in this as a group anymore, which really sucks.

 

 

EDIT: wanna know what's weird? I feel like we're all kind of a group of friends that know eachother's personalities, even though none of us have really met. Insane to think about.

[jaster220]

Oh gosh, not you too the Nebraska hate train is at full capacity already!

 

In all seriousness, I get as emotional as anyone when it comes to this and I hope I haven't attributed to this poor mental image of Nebraskans as a whole (even though I probably have). That said, I hope sometime we can find peace with you guys to our east, there are some awesome people out here that have been on this forum with me since 2009, before it was even called theweatherforums (westernusawxforums baby!) and several others as that offer constructive ideas rather than just spewing crap on here. I don't want those poor behaviors of some to tarnish those who are here to discuss weather. Of course emotion is unavoidable to some extent, but maybe we can just get stricter with warnings/bans instead to help, because it feels like we're not all in this as a group anymore, which really sucks.

 

 

EDIT: wanna know what's weird? I feel like we're all kind of a group of friends that know eachother's personalities, even though none of us have really met. Insane to think about.

 

Whoa there, easy.. Not hating on you or any other Neb peeps. It was said "tongue-in-cheek" due to the known jealousy of Chicago's luck. (see complaint thd for non-Chicago peeps). I'm actually quite entertained by almost everything you guys out there post. While it's super boring over my way, it was a riot following the play-by-play posts and all the drama about said drama and emotional swings up and down, lol. Yes, some negative/bad taste posts add nothing and aren't called for. But, those posts/posters usually get a good smack-down from sensible peeps just as they would if we were hangin' together in person at the local pub    

 

This is a FUN sub..let's not lose that. We're having to survive a winter where Ma Nature has chucked us more storm duds than bones and we're dealing with it the best we can! ..mostly 

[Minny_Weather]

We should all have a convention somewhere.

[gimmesnow]

Only if hazing of snowlover76 is allowed.

[bud2380]

18z GFS sucked just for the record.  

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Euro EPS starting FEB 1st  was about as winter as it  gets....

[Tom]

12Z Euro EPS starting FEB 1st was about as winter as it gets....

It’s like the switch was flipped to the “ON” position....haven’t seen runs like these in a while...

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like we're going back to a clipper pattern for February. It'll be hard to get any measurable snow besides clippers for the first week or two it seems like. I have a paralyzing fear that we'll see this cold snap with a bare ground.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Judt depends on how strong the cold air will be with supression

[jaster220]

OHwx followed-up his earlier post

 

"I am becoming increasingly optimistic about the storm just after the turn of the month. A large number of GEFS and EPS members have a nice storm (probably 70-80%), though with disagreement on location. There seems to be some agreement on potentially some STJ activity in that timeframe along with a strong northern stream shortwave riding along a steepening temp gradient. As you have pointed out, a lot of storms so far this winter haven't panned out due to too much PJ influence, and given the magnitude of the cold over Canada and changes run to run on the models in their exact handling of it at this point that will remain a concern until we get closer in.

 

Thereafter, the MJO evolution is both good and bad IMO...bad for the reason you pointed out, it limits the opportunity for a larger STJ shortwave to blow up into a juicy Gulf low, but good because a phase 8 MJO in February is cold in the eastern US...a -EPO in February is cold in the east...I have to think once we get into phase 8, probably at some point during the second week of February, the trough axis does shift east and become prohibitive for our area. It's still possible to spin up a moderate storm with little STJ help before the pattern gets too suppressive.

 

Wavelengths do start getting a bit shorter, especially later in the month, which would in theory bode well for the trough axis being centered a bit farther west than late December/early January, but a -EPO/+PNA/phase 8 to 1 MJO, which appears to be a quite possible combination the second week of February or so, is decidedly a pattern that favors the trough axis being too far east for us to see more than clippers. I'd certainly hope/expect that we see some more variability the latter portions of February into March which opens the door back up for us. There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March. By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this sub-forum back into better position."

[NEJeremy]

Clippers ho!! If I read this right, 1st week is the best chance for any biggie, than after that clipper train with maybe a change heading into March.

 

OHwx followed-up his earlier post

 

"I am becoming increasingly optimistic about the storm just after the turn of the month. A large number of GEFS and EPS members have a nice storm (probably 70-80%), though with disagreement on location. There seems to be some agreement on potentially some STJ activity in that timeframe along with a strong northern stream shortwave riding along a steepening temp gradient. As you have pointed out, a lot of storms so far this winter haven't panned out due to too much PJ influence, and given the magnitude of the cold over Canada and changes run to run on the models in their exact handling of it at this point that will remain a concern until we get closer in.

 

Thereafter, the MJO evolution is both good and bad IMO...bad for the reason you pointed out, it limits the opportunity for a larger STJ shortwave to blow up into a juicy Gulf low, but good because a phase 8 MJO in February is cold in the eastern US...a -EPO in February is cold in the east...I have to think once we get into phase 8, probably at some point during the second week of February, the trough axis does shift east and become prohibitive for our area. It's still possible to spin up a moderate storm with little STJ help before the pattern gets too suppressive.

 

Wavelengths do start getting a bit shorter, especially later in the month, which would in theory bode well for the trough axis being centered a bit farther west than late December/early January, but a -EPO/+PNA/phase 8 to 1 MJO, which appears to be a quite possible combination the second week of February or so, is decidedly a pattern that favors the trough axis being too far east for us to see more than clippers. I'd certainly hope/expect that we see some more variability the latter portions of February into March which opens the door back up for us. There are indications that the -EPO could persist into March on climate models, and the "organic" techniques such as RRWT and BSR suggest the end of February and into March could remain quite cold, so it's possible we see significant wintry weather into March. By then the wavelengths do shorten some more, which could put this sub-forum back into better position."

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Models look very boring so far, and even the strength of the cold air isn't anything to sneeze at so far, but still a long ways out.

[Minny_Weather]

Already a 5" GEFS mean for Eastern MO for next week's storm. Pretty impressive for 8 days out.

[OKwx2k4]

Oh gosh, not you too the Nebraska hate train is at full capacity already!

 

In all seriousness, I get as emotional as anyone when it comes to this and I hope I haven't attributed to this poor mental image of Nebraskans as a whole (even though I probably have). That said, I hope sometime we can find peace with you guys to our east, there are some awesome people out here that have been on this forum with me since 2009, before it was even called theweatherforums (westernusawxforums baby!) and several others as that offer constructive ideas rather than just spewing crap on here. I don't want those poor behaviors of some to tarnish those who are here to discuss weather. Of course emotion is unavoidable to some extent, but maybe we can just get stricter with warnings/bans instead to help, because it feels like we're not all in this as a group anymore, which really sucks.

 

 

EDIT: wanna know what's weird? I feel like we're all kind of a group of friends that know eachother's personalities, even though none of us have really met. Insane to think about.

I have agreed with this since I stumbled across this group a couple of years ago. We are all incredibly unique and different but I would buy any of you good folks a beer and enjoy one with ya too. I'm the odd duck here but it's awesome that people think of each of us (even the Okie here) when we are writing and even go as far as finding things to keep each other interested when the weather isn't so favorable or interesting. Cheers to that. Good post buddy. I'm sincerely glad to see Nebraska have some fun this year even though I don't have much fun to speak of right at this moment.

[Tom]

00z EPS snow mean took a step back as the volatility continues.  It shifted the mean snow SE and mainly targets IN/OH but still has the 2" line across N IL/E MO/S IL/IN/MI.  Sorta looks similar to the GEFS at this range.  Unless this wave can develop stronger I don't see it becoming a wound up storm but more of a frontal wave.  There are still a number of good hits among both the GEFS/EPS but we are still 7 days out so this event can go either way.

 

Some interesting trends in the overnight data.  Both the 00z GEFS/EPS are in agreement to keep a -PNA pattern alive and well throughout the extended period.  This takes up through Feb 10th and if you think about the potential in this pattern when you couple a -AO/-WPO/-EPO all in tandem, this screams an intense battle zone across our southern parts of the sub forum that should spark an atmospheric river of precip in early Feb.  The SE ridge may in fact be strong enough to keep the storm track right over our sub forum, those farther north may be dealing with suppression.  On the other, those south may be in the jackpot zone.  Nearly every model is in agreement that PAC waves will be coming out of the Rockies every 2-3 days sparking an extremely active period enhanced by the seasonally peaking jet stream.  Fun times tracking systems just around the corner.

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018012500.png

 

 

 

 

 

Nearly every model is spitting out copious moisture as a conveyor belt of moisture is poised to come out of the GOM.  Could we have some support from the STJ???

 

 

 

 

'

[Tom]

Just for fun, 00z GEFS 10mb strat forecast looks like the "Eyes of the Polar Vortex" will be visiting us in Feb...

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks for the posts Tom.  It is amazing how much time I have when there isn't a storm to track.   

[Tony]

Unfortunately next weeks storm looks to target places along I-70 on east so will not see much for places North of this. I know its a week away but that's the way the trends have been so no denying it. Just does not look any better in the long range with regards to any major storms. It's really a shame that winter has turned out this way and I hope winter does not decide to show its face in March or April.

[Tom]

Latest MJO from the Euro has the MJO pulse slowing in Phase 7 which is an EC ridge Day 7-15....this has an interesting look bc it will likely cause a huge battle zone with arctic air pushing up against the ridge/warmth across our sub forum.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png