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February 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Fun times tracking systems just around the corner.

 

Gosh, let's hope so...default_popcorn.gif

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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February is looking to be coldish, but not too stormy. Main action seems to be going south of i-80. We will see how it turns out. EC has more chances as it stands for now.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Unfortunately next weeks storm looks to target places along I-70 on east so will not see much for places North of this. I know its a week away but that's the way the trends have been so no denying it. Just does not look any better in the long range with regards to any major storms. It's really a shame that winter has turned out this way and I hope winter does not decide to show its face in March or April.

Looks like you and Tom are at opposite ends in your long range views

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Take it for what it's worth, but 12Z GFS is very active in the long term.  It looks like what Tom has been talking about with a battleground setting up through the subforum, though we know nothing is set in stone that far out.  Just interesting to look at.

It's actually the first thing Tom has said for that time period I am 100% also on board with. Nothing against Tom, he's great at what he does, but it's more of me being a pessimist. But with a -EPO and an MJO in phase 7, I actually do like our odds for once...

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Looks like you and Tom are at opposite ends in your long range views

I hope he is right as I would rather be wrong but the only thing in the long range that models were correct on was the cold intrusion. As far as next weeks storm GFS looks like a frontal passage while the Gem is a little more interesting with more of an overrunning event but neither of them showing anything bigger.

 

Edit: Of course the EC looks like a big hit for next weekend...figures.

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I hope he is right as I would rather be wrong but the only thing in the long range that models were correct on was the cold intrusion. As far as next weeks storm GFS looks like a frontal passage while the Gem is a little more interesting with more of an overrunning event but neither of them showing anything bigger.

 

Edit: Of course the EC looks like a big hit for next weekend...figures.

that's what was shared from another forum earlier. according to this other individual they feel the pattern has the best chance the first week, but then after it doesn't favor big storms and favors nw flow around our forum and looks much better for the east coast. maybe a shift back west towards the end of the month. time will tell of course, but if you look back at the beginning posts of the previous month's threads there is always optimism for a great month and the pattern looks great, etc, but then it has basically fallen well short of expectations or predictions from the models each month.

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Earlier today when I was analyzing all sorts of data and looking back at the LRC's previous cycles, a thought came across my mind and light bulb went off.  Someone on here, can't remember who it was, mentioned something along the lines that in order for Chicago to make it back to the seasonal avg snowfall a Feb '15 Boston type of set up would have to happen.  After today's research and digging, the idea came over me....What if that can actually happen???

 

Here is my thinking...we are about to enter a 2 week period of cold that we all know has happened in the previous LRC cycles.  Now, the wettest of the 2 cycles was the 1st cycle and not so much the second.  Not only have I, but Gary Lezak has mentioned in previous blog posts that sometimes the LRC works in a way where cycles 1 & 3 match up better than 1 & 2 or 2 & 3 and so forth.  Having said that, I'm starting to lean towards the idea we may be heading towards a rather interesting open to the month because in LRC cycle #1, there were many systems that did in fact deliver juicy systems and if we are to believe that at face value then there is a lot on the table here.

 

Today's 12z GEFS are spitting out some big accumulations over the next 2 weeks...

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Next weeks system has just as good of a chance of being a fropa as it does a real storm

Maybe even 60/40 fropa, but those are prolly some of the better odds around here so far this season

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sure wish it was 40 yrs ago tonight tho!! If only time machines were real :-\

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some rain to start of Feb 1st followed by colder air as a cf pushes through. Afterwards, skies will clear and seasonably to slightly below normal temps follow w sunshine making an appearance.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Well most models have all the clippers north of Nebraska...wonderful lol. At least its active, considering how strong the PV has been wouldn't be surprised to see all of those systems dip south.

Trying to forecast a clipper 10 days out is like trying to win the lottery.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Believe Me; what I wrote was justified.

 

After my long trip and charming write-up; instead of being courteous and saying, "hello, how are you"...you behave as if I am not even there; as if I do not exist.

 

Count yourself outside of Providence; and I sure don't mean Rhode Island.

LOL. ok then.

 

Hello Tabitha, how are you?

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Last nights Euro Weeklies lining up quite well with the LRC keeping it in a predominantly BN pattern through about the 18th-20th of the month before the cold relaxes. After this period, I would watch for ridge to build in the SW/W just like it did in late Nov before Thanksgiving. Before we get that far ahead of ourselves, I'm still on board for an active first 2 weeks of the month. Models are struggling with any sort of run-to-run consistency with the PAC waves coming out of the Rockies. This is such an amplified pattern its like a crap shoot for models to sort it out.

 

Meanwhile, the Feb 1st-2nd system is still showing up on the models and last nights 00z EPS shifted back NW with the snow and has some bigger hits but its been struggling trying to figure out what happens.

 

I'm encouraged to see the -PNA pattern showing up on the long range Euro Weeklies through mid month....this should keep the storm track across our sub forum that will keep things interesting.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_meps_pna_2018012500.png

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00z Ukie showing a rather strong 996mb SLP near the TX Panhandle towards the tail end of the run.  Last nights 06z GFS matched up similarily to the location of the Ukie.  This will be the most important piece of the equation if you ask me.  We need a stronger and earlier development of this SLP.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_25.png

 

Later in the run, the GFS amps up the SLP tracking thru the OV...I'd say about 40-50% of the GEFS and EPS members do have a surface low develop along this frontal boundary.  Let's see if the models trend better and look more like what happened in previous LRC cycles.

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EC next week looks interesting, especially by weeks end.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My forecast shows dry weather throughout the 10 day extended. Wow....and temps vary, from cold to milder to very cold briefly, to milder and etc and etc.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Everything being squashed to the south and if it does amplify then it goes too far west. Story of our winter

 

You're beginning to sound like Snowlover's bro.. :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Easy Tony, just hold your horses buddy...you can see pretty big trends in the GFS for the GHD system.

The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall.

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The only trend I am seeing is the low continues to amplify east of us. Call me a pessimist but don't see this coming NW for any measurable snowfall.

 

For sure, Chicago's got an uphill battle to steal one from the E OH magnet, but you could get lucky once this season!

 

From my post in SMI forum..

 

That "MAY" trend just enough NW to graze us again, but I had a hunch way before Dec that Ma Nature's biggest deficit region snow-wise was the OHV and she'd be on the hook to target that area with the love. Seems to be playing out that way so far, with PAH for example being way above avg to date. I'd rather we weren't flashed 30" just to have that become 3-4" like last time. Happier if we look fringed with 2-4" and it trends our way at the last minute and ends up more. Key will be how phased it can get before it's too far east like last time.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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