February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

I think February is pretty much done w cold and snow for some. What March has to offer is another story, but like I have said in the past. Mid March is where I draw the line. Slopfest is not in my nature afterwards.

[Hawkeye]

The euro has trended toward a stronger wave Thursday, and the 00z run even has a few inches of snow falling in Iowa.  The 12z UK also trended toward something similar.

[Minny_Weather]

52.5*F on my balcony right now. Just opened up my windows for the first time since December. The cat likes it!

 

As much of a Winter lover as I am, I'm excited for Spring. This is a nice teaser.

[hlcater]

While trying to find the 2009 ice storm, I found this storm, which I had largely forgot about until now. It would be nice to get a storm like this again. We haven't had a true blizzard in a really, really long time. Widespread totals of 12-15" and a strengthening low from St. Louis to Chicago. Funnily enough, storms like these seem like a relic of the past nowadays.

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/120808-120809_Blizzard

[snowstorm83]

Clouds have somewhat kept temperatures down, but it's still mild enough to comfortably wear shorts and t-shirt. Last dirty snow remnants are hanging on for dear life. 

[jaster220]

While trying to find the 2009 ice storm, I found this storm, which I had largely forgot about until now. It would be nice to get a storm like this again. We haven't had a true blizzard in a really, really long time. Widespread totals of 12-15" and a strengthening low from St. Louis to Chicago. Funnily enough, storms like these seem like a relic of the past nowadays.

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/120808-120809_Blizzard

 

Was expecting the usual rainer whiff here in SWMI, but due to the rapid deepening, a rare early occlusion occurred and got Lake Michigan involved on the backside giving this area a 10-14" backside bliz! One of the neatest surprise storms of my life anywhere I've hung my hat. As you say, would be nice to see more of these types of systems. It was on par if not better than the Dec '87 bomb that raked Chicago and SMI in a similar fashion. 

[Hawkeye]

A couple days ago, it looked like we had a decent shot at 50 today, but the surprise 2 inches of snow yesterday held us back a bit.  By this evening, the new 2 inches was melted, but we still have the inch that was already on the ground.

 

The euro has been steady with a high temp of upper 50s to low 60s Monday, although it's trying to back off just a bit.  The other models never got on board the warm train, bringing the front through earlier.  If anything, those models have gotten even colder.

[Tom]

Happy President's Day!  It's going to be quite an active week of wx around here and most of our sub forum.  Day to day chances of precip and several storm systems are on the radar and recent model run trends are suggesting more snow chances creeping into the picture for those out in the Plains/MW/W GL's region.  By the time we flip the calendar into March, some spots across NW of here will be building a deep glacier.  An incredible late season snowy pattern shaping up.

[Tom]

As high latitude blocking overwhelms the pattern this week, this will set the stage for a fun finish to what has already been an extremely interesting and fascinating Feb.  Who's ready to finish off met winter strong???  Models will struggle trying to figure out the storm track over the next 7 days but latest guidance is suggesting that folks from NE into the W GL's will begin to see their chances of late season snowfall to increase.

 

Here is the 00z GEFS output...00z EPS is very similar and also suggesting an active pattern this week into the opening days of March.  What's interesting, as the blocking takes shape, we will see a more west/east storm track evolve instead of seeing cutters which will be the theme this week.

 

 

[Snowshoe]

Took a hike at Mill Bluff State Park in C. Wisconsin on Sunday. If you're ever driving I90/94 between the Twin Cities and Madison do yourself a favor and take a hike up the bluff. Taking a hike in the snow is always enjoyable.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Already mentioning 70% of snow here on Thursday.  Fairly high chances for 3 days out imo.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS wants to bring another 0.1" of ice here Thursday.

[westMJim]

I generally do not like to talk about records until they are broken but as the forecast for tomorrow mentions “near record warm temperatures” I will toss up the records for February 20^th at several locations across southern lower Michigan.  The forecasted High in Grand Rapids is near 60° the record is 61° in 1930 but with 1 to 3” of rain forecasted the current record is 1.40” in 1898. Here is a list of the 1. Forecasted highs for the 20^th 2. The current record and the 3. Current record precipitation record.

Muskegon 1. Upper 50’s 2. Record 62 in 2017. 3. Precipitation record 1.13” in 2004.

Lansing 1. Mid 60’s  2. Record 59° set in 2017 3. Precipitation record 1.04” in 1891

Detroit 1. Mid 60’s 2. Record 63° set in 2016  3. Precipitation record 1.07” in 1891

Flint 1. Mid 60’s 2. Record 61° set in 1930 3. Precipitation record 0.65” set in 2002

Saginaw 1. Low 60’s 2. Record 62° set in 1930 3. Precipitation record 0.96” set in 2005.

We shall see if any temperature or Precipitation records are set tomorrow

[Tom]

12z Euro says, “buckle up MN and C/N WI”...it’s about to get pretty darn wintry and active. OMA/LNK peeps may see some snow Thu/Fri period into IA also with 2-4” being a good starting point.

[Hawkeye]

[Minny_Weather]

Think it's a one run wonder. Every other model is showing ice.

[Hawkeye]

Think it's a one run wonder. Every other model is showing ice.

 

The KS/NE/IA/sWI snow is from the Thursday and Saturday systems.

[Tom]

Very impressive ensemble agreement that the next 2 weeks are going to be packed with systems and many snow storms from the looks of it. 12z EPS turned the snow magnet into the “ON” position from NE into IA/WI and all of MN over the next 10 days.

[Minny_Weather]

The KS/NE/IA/sWI snow is from the Thursday and Saturday systems.

Yeah that's what I'm talking about. Euro is the only model with snow as the ptype. Every other model is ZR or sleet for Thursday.

 

This is no doubt an active pattern. If only it were January.

[Tom]

IMO, I think we are heading into one of the most wildest March patterns we have seen in quite some time.  I know March '13 was pretty interesting, but we may have to go back into the early 60's as some suggest we may be heading.  The latest Euro Weeklies spitting out the snowiest signal I have seen all season long and it looks to me that this pattern is going to fuel juicy storm systems and this week is just the beginning.  #Winter #Snowmagedon

 

Something tells me this Spring is going to produce some serious flooding concerns. 

[westMJim]

IMO, I think we are heading into one of the most wildest March patterns we have seen in quite some time.  I know March '13 was pretty interesting, but we may have to go back into the early 60's as some suggest we may be heading.  The latest Euro Weeklies spitting out the snowiest signal I have seen all season long and it looks to me that this pattern is going to fuel juicy storm systems and this week is just the beginning.  #Winter #Snowmagedon

 

Something tells me this Spring is going to produce some serious flooding concerns. 

Will have to see how March plays out. Here is a fun fact since 1999 Grand Rapids has set new monthly snow fall records in November 31.0” in 2014. December 59.2” in 2000. January 46.8” in 1999. February  41.6” in 2008.  Of the remaining records 4 were set in the 1960’s April 15.6” 1961. MARCH 36.0” 1965. October 8.4” 1967 and May 5.5” 1923. One of the months that I have targeted for a new record is for March. Could this be the year? I kind of hope that it is not April or May. As I work for the local minor league baseball club and it is no fun when its cold but if that is what it is well nothing I can do about that.

[james1976]

@Tom....that would be a serious back loaded Winter. March is known to have juicy systems as we transition from Winter to Spring. I say bring it on!

[Niko]

Foggy, drizzly, and damp out there w temps rising in the 50s by morning. Still snow otg, but, Its going to be history soon.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS going crazy with snow across Nebraska this weekend.

[Money]

GFs crushes NE/IA/MN for the weekend

 

14+ for gosaints area

[hlcater]

The Eastern Iowa low magnet is revving up. Can't wait for my 39, 500ft cloud deck and drizzle.

[Money]

The Eastern Iowa low magnet is revving up. Can't wait for my 39, 500ft cloud deck and drizzle.

How about some fzr instead?

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2018022000&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Snow

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022000&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[hlcater]

How about some fzr instead?

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2018022000&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Snow

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022000&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=

kill me

[CentralNebWeather]

 

0z GFS. Nice.

[Money]

Gets down to 984 just east of here

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018022000&fh=132&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[hlcater]

That's a storm of the breed that we haven't seen around here in the past 4 years. Drizzle or not, a strengthening storm towards the lakes? I can hardly believe it.

[Tom]

0z GFS going crazy with snow across Nebraska this weekend.

Fits the pattern and my thinking...let’s go for it!

[Money]

Gem and icon both have a storm but both weaker (icon takes it over Chicago 1004 mb)

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Holy crap!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018022000/150/sn10_acc.us_c.png

[james1976]

Another nasty cutoff on the south edge. Id rather be way north at this range.

[Niko]

Winter is OVA...Spring is here for some to stay. "Time is running out" for those at or below normal snowfall. Good luck w that.     Even the EC is BN snowfall.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says weekend storm is a difference between the slower, closed low GFS, and more open, progressive Euro. How many times have we heard these differences before? Well let’s see which is correct.

[GDR]

Please stay where it is I don’t want anymore of that crap.

[Tom]

I just stepped outside and the air mass feels very humid and warm...very Spring-like out there this morning while sitting in the warm sector of this large storm system.  CF is knocking on the doorstep though...it'll feel quite different later this evening.  The difference in temps across our sub forum is quite amazing for late Feb standards.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I just stepped outside and the air mass feels very humid and warm...very Spring-like out there this morning while sitting in the warm sector of this large storm system. CF is knocking on the doorstep though...it'll feel quite different later this evening. The difference in temps across our sub forum is quite amazing for late Feb standards.

 

Your are right Tom. It is 8 degrees here with wind chill of -7. I would say we had over and inch of snow last night.