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February 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

 

 

00z to 12z GFS shift N is apparent here. This is valid for 00z on Fri of next week. C'mon Tom, pull out that snow magnet and keep this thing coming north!

12z Euro showing nada!  Wish I could dust off the snow magnet and make it work...

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Skilling had the following post on his FB page

 

La Nina winters--the current one included---are noteworthy for their volatile temps, as we flip flop from mild Pacific to blasts of frigid arctic air. But they're also characterized buy a historic bias toward above normal precipitation. Our in-house studies have shown that over 60% of La Nina cold seasons have produced above normal precip. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the "the other shoe to drop" at some point before the cold season ends and to more active systems-- in terms of their precipitation production--to show up in the Chicago area. Just when that might happen isn't clear at this point. But the expansion of the mass of frigid arctic air, currently bottled up in Canada, continues to be predicted by all global models for later this coming week (with an advance lobe of chilly air possibly activating some lake snow Sunday night into Monday night), next weekend and into the following week. All in our weather office will be keeping an eye on that.
In recent days, the full suite of forecast models we watch each day and their ensembles have oscillated from day to day on the potential for snowy disturbances later next week and the following weekend--rendering a precise period on which to hang our hats for snow---VERY dicey at the moment. But with a west to east jet stream likely to lay out across the Lower 48 along the southern flank of the expanding arctic air mass later next week into the following weekend and the week which follows, that's certainly a period to at least watch

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Skilling had the following post on his FB page

 

La Nina winters--the current one included---are noteworthy for their volatile temps, as we flip flop from mild Pacific to blasts of frigid arctic air. But they're also characterized buy a historic bias toward above normal precipitation. Our in-house studies have shown that over 60% of La Nina cold seasons have produced above normal precip. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the "the other shoe to drop" at some point before the cold season ends and to more active systems-- in terms of their precipitation production--to show up in the Chicago area. Just when that might happen isn't clear at this point. But the expansion of the mass of frigid arctic air, currently bottled up in Canada, continues to be predicted by all global models for later this coming week (with an advance lobe of chilly air possibly activating some lake snow Sunday night into Monday night), next weekend and into the following week. All in our weather office will be keeping an eye on that.

In recent days, the full suite of forecast models we watch each day and their ensembles have oscillated from day to day on the potential for snowy disturbances later next week and the following weekend--rendering a precise period on which to hang our hats for snow---VERY dicey at the moment. But with a west to east jet stream likely to lay out across the Lower 48 along the southern flank of the expanding arctic air mass later next week into the following weekend and the week which follows, that's certainly a period to at least watch

 

This per a LOT met on Amwx

 

It's right to not get excited or too hopeful about anything yet because it's so far out. I've acknowledged being much too optimistic in previous occasions this winter, for instance for mid December and the late December-early January period.  

The key difference from what was being modeled for those periods and the current state of the models/ensembles for the medium-long range is that the tropical forcing via the MJO stands to actually benefit this time should what is being shown verifies. The ensembles were incorrect with the pattern for late December into January (GFS had a mega big dog for a few days) that should have occurred with the phase of the MJO (was a cold eastern troughing phase and ensembles were showing southeast ridge influence).

 

For the upcoming pattern, the placement of the significant -EPO ridge is forecast to be westward of previous occasions. The MJO during early Feb is forecast to be traveling through phase 7 with amplitude greater than 1 (variance on ensembles how strong the wave will be in phase 7). The two in concert should work to keep higher geopotential heights south and east instead of constant dry northwest flow or a crusher PV look.

 

I'm not gonna speculate as to whether a big moisture laden system will occur in the pattern being modeled, and certainly wouldn't rule one out. But we should at least have chances for more frequent moderate+ events, such as via overrunning. We'll see how things look as we get closer. Definitely need the more west based -EPO ridge to verify. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CPC keeping hopes alive for a couple of us on the far east end

 

20180126_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Indy hyped up about the upcoming pattern reversal, and they should be in a good position, so rightfully so

 

http://indywx.com/2018/01/25/potential-on-the-table-for-a-spectacular-period-of-winter-weather/

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This per a LOT met on Amwx

That's pretty much exactly what my thoughts are at the moment and I haven't really backed down.  In fact, I'm more inclined to believe the ridge in the E/SE will have some staying power.  For instance, today's 12z EPS keeps the EC warm Day 10-15 and an active storm track in our general vicinity.  The model continues to show a stout -PNA pattern which would allow a favorable storm track for a lot of us.  As long as the -EPO/-WPO/-AO hold on (I don't see why they wouldn't), this will def keep things active around here.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018012612.png

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That's pretty much exactly what my thoughts are at the moment and I haven't really backed down.  In fact, I'm more inclined to believe the ridge in the E/SE will have some staying power.  For instance, today's 12z EPS keeps the EC warm Day 10-15 and an active storm track in our general vicinity.  The model continues to show a stout -PNA pattern which would allow a favorable storm track for a lot of us.  As long as the -EPO/-WPO/-AO hold on (I don't see why they wouldn't), this will def keep things active around here.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018012612.png

Like what I am hearing. I need a direct hit from a monster then I'll be happy.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Super bowl Sunday period has the looks of a stormy period. EPS/GFS both showing storm potential on the table.

And Im not talking about being on the southern or northern edge either, I want to be in the middle of the heaviest band. That hasn't happened for 8-9 years lol.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Have a gut feeling February will end up dry and cold w bare ground.  :lol: Hope I am wrong.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Any chance it moves this far north? No? Eh, I don't care.

 

 

It's literally 50 degrees out, and I LOVE it. Give me spring and I'll be just as happy!

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

I'm sorry to hear that Tom. Hope your family is doing well.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Condolences Tom. Remember the good times you shared together and you realize how important that families are.

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Accuweather getting in on the storm train.

 

 

 

90.jpg

Interesting write up on their thoughts for February. I wish I could remember what year it was, I want to say late 90’s - early 2000’s, there was a February set up like they are predicting that was very stormy in Nebraska. Will have to do some digging to find the year.

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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

So sorry to hear about your grandma Tom. May she be at eternal rest!
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It's been a rough past couple of days here. I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well. She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral. I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week. I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event. With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Sorry to hear. I just went thru the same thing. My Grandma passed at 330am as well on January 9th.
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The 00z and 12z euro are wildly different for the I-80 corridor... the 12z keeps the baroclinic zone farther north, so only MN, ne IA, n IL and points north get snow, while NE gets little to nothing.  The pattern potential is there, but models are still fluctuating wildly from run to run.  Last night's GFS showed nothing for snow here through 16 days, but this morning is a jackpot.  Expect more of this for the next few days.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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