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February 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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You just got a blizzard

You felt the need to respond with that.... Why?

 

60 miles North of me got a blizzard. Also, did I say anything about us lacking snow? NO! I have said nothing along the lines of "feel pity for Nebraska" since we got the Christmas Eve snow and we were on par with the rest of the sub.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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We should make a scale for what we consider “blizzards”

 

 

1. Blizzard - A blizzard where you get 6”+

 

2. BlizzTurd - A “blizzard” for a brief moment, but you get 2-5”

 

 

This most recent storm was definitely a BlizzTurd for Omaha and Lincoln, so I’m going to keep being greedy.

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You just got a blizzard

 

Just do the arithmetic.

 

You need at least 3 hours of heavy snow / visibility under 1/4 mile and strong winds.

 

Technically, moderate snow is one inch an hour snow, truth be told.

 

Heavy snow is snow greater than an inch an hour.

 

So let us say that heavy snow; at its lightest, is 1.5" per hour.

 

Three hours of that would yield 4.5" of snow; standing alone, as a bare minimum...not accounting for more slackened periods.

 

The Lancaster Airport has 1.8"; so the numbers do not add up there.

 

I lived back east before re-locating; and the WFO NEVER issued a blizzard warning when less than 8 inches of snow was anticipated.

 

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Just do the arithmetic.

 

You need at least 3 hours of heavy snow / visibility under 1/4 mile and strong winds.

 

Technically, moderate snow is one inch an hour snow, truth be told.

 

Heavy snow is snow greater than an inch an hour.

 

So let us say that heavy snow; at its lightest, is 1.5" per hour.

 

Three hours of that would yield 4.5" of snow; standing alone, as a bare minimum...not accounting for more slackened periods.

 

The Lancaster Airport has 1.8"; so the numbers do not add up there.

 

I lived back east before re-locating; and the WFO NEVER issued a blizzard warning when less than 8 inches of snow was anticipated.

 

 

Well, they were forecasting 6-8” for us though.

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Well, they were forecasting 6-8” for us though.

 

Yes, they over-forecast.

 

In the Old Days; there was also a temperature threshold for blizzards...20 F or under for a standard blizzard; 10 F and under for a severe blizzard.  "Severe" blizzards also had an augmented wind level criteria; IIRC it was 45 mph.

 

Since it was very hard to meet (especially in the East; where it is usually above 20 F during major snowstorms); NOAA discarded that element of the criteria.

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Condolences Tom. Remember the good times you shared together and you realize how important that families are.

+1. Hang in there, Tom. Prayers for you and your family.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yes, they over-forecast.

 

In the Old Days; there was also a temperature threshold for blizzards...20 F or under for a standard blizzard; 10 F and under for a severe blizzard.  "Severe" blizzards also had an augmented wind level criteria; IIRC it was 45 mph.

 

Since it was very hard to meet (especially in the East; where it is usually above 20 F during major snowstorms); NOAA discarded that element of the criteria.

Back in the 80's in the Twin Cities it was 15F for the threshold.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Back in the 80's in the Twin Cities it was 15F for the threshold.

 

Gemini's would seek a middle ground...

 

All the models look delightful the first 10 days of February out here; as the pattern suddenly looks quite wet.

 

It has looked that way before w/o delivering; but climatologically February is a better snow month around here as anticyclonic January loosens its grip just a bit. 

 

With 15.2" of snow on the entire winter; there is some ground to be made up.

 

If not now; when?

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Sorry to hear that Tom. My condolences to you and your family

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It's been a rough past couple of days here.  I visited my grandma this past Thursday where she was in hospice care to say my final fare well.  She passed away early this morning at 3:30am and my parents are flying in from AZ on Tue for the wake/funeral.  I prob won't be posting much this week for obvious reasons.

 

On a brighter note, last nights 00z Euro run is showing some pretty exciting potential for a large portion of our sub forum right around Super Bowl Sunday into the early part of the following week.  I saw a map on the local news showing 6-12" all the way from CO/KS/IA/IL/MO/WI/IN with a long duration over running/inverted trough event.  With that being said, it should start to get rather active around here as the much anticipated open to Feb is about to begin.

Sorry for your lost Tom. Prayers for you and your family's comfort..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Still not buying GFS because there's no other models backing it. But these maps showing >12" for us are pretty.

True-- and to be expected at this range - but the CMC is coming around to something similar. 00z GFS is even colder then a month ago....

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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True-- and to be expected at this range - but the CMC is coming around to something similar. 00z GFS is even colder then a month ago....

 

I must say, record lows will drop like flies if we can get enough snow cover to mess with temps. Even a few inches will be enough for that.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Euro still like, "lol Nebraska, you thought"

Your not looking at the big picture here. The fact is..that it did shift south some. The models at this moment are mostly south over us.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Gemini's would seek a middle ground...

 

All the models look delightful the first 10 days of February out here; as the pattern suddenly looks quite wet.

 

It has looked that way before w/o delivering; but climatologically February is a better snow month around here as anticyclonic January loosens its grip just a bit. 

 

With 15.2" of snow on the entire winter; there is some ground to be made up.

 

If not now; when?

 

The NWS WFO has just a dusting to an inch in the forecast for this area today; and since I am new to this area they likely have a good deal more insight than I do regarding the ups & downs of the climate here.

 

However, it was interesting to note the 0z RGEM-LAM / HRDPS printing out 0.2 LE...which, with a temperature under 10 F at the moment; would generate a nice little snowfall today.  I always tout the LAM as the best short range model; and it would be nice to see a good outcome for once.

 

In my favor would be the forecast east wind at the surface throughout the day; indeed winds have already veered to the east at all the local stations around here.  An easterly component to the wind is essential on the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills as the upslope flow is moist; a west wind is a sinking & dry wind here.

 

With 15.2" of snow on the winter; I am just 9 inches behind that snow mecca called Atlantic City, NJ...so the incongruity of this winter is profoundly disturbing.

 

Time will tell..

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Thank you everyone for your kind posts.  Your support is noteworthy and certainly does help during this stressful period.  In the meantime, the weather brings joy into my life and that is why I like coming on here discussing the weather.  With that being said, both the 00z EPS/GEFS  are still showing the Super Bowl weekend system's potential.  This particular set up will need a lot of patience to see how it will evolve.  Nonetheless, I do feel fairly confident that we will have a system to track during the upcoming week.  Let's see how today's runs look.

 

As for the longer range, I expect to see these PAC waves to continue and come out of the Rockies post Super Bowl weekend.  According to the LRC, there is a system that I'm looking for around the Feb 7th-10th period that may ultimately tug down the Polar Vortex and usher in a major shot of arctic air.  This particular system could become a big deal later on, but first, let's lay down a fresh snow cover by next weekend.  Who wouldn't want some snow falling during the Super Bowl???

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 Your support is noteworthy and certainly does help during this stressful period. 

 

My condolences for your loss. 

 

Since it was your grandmother who passed away; you can take solace in the fact that she lived to a ripe old age; which is really the most important thing.

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The NWS WFO has just a dusting to an inch in the forecast for this area today; and since I am new to this area they likely have a good deal more insight than I do regarding the ups & downs of the climate here.

 

However, it was interesting to note the 0z RGEM-LAM / HRDPS printing out 0.2 LE...which, with a temperature under 10 F at the moment; would generate a nice little snowfall today.  I always tout the LAM as the best short range model; and it would be nice to see a good outcome for once.

 

In my favor would be the forecast east wind at the surface throughout the day; indeed winds have already veered to the east at all the local stations around here.  An easterly component to the wind is essential on the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills as the upslope flow is moist; a west wind is a sinking & dry wind here.

 

With 15.2" of snow on the winter; I am just 9 inches behind that snow mecca called Atlantic City, NJ...so the incongruity of this winter is profoundly disturbing.

 

Time will tell..

 

Oh my; it is starting to snow here at last...

 

As Warden Norton said after discovering that Andy Dufresne had escaped from Shawshank Prison:

 

"Lord its a miracle!"

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Still not buying GFS because there's no other models backing it. But these maps showing >12" for us are pretty.

Sure are! Beats looking at maps dumping snow elsewhere!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The euro is trying to pull the rug out from under the February arctic blast.  It's way north with everything.  The great lakes do well, but south and west of the lakes?  Nothing.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On super bowl sunday, GFS has highs in the single digits in Nebraska. Euro has highs in the upper 30s and 60 the next day. Weather models are just lovely. 

 

The temp forecast for Monday, Feb 5th, for Lincoln, NE, on the last four Euro runs... 7, 18, 33, 59.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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