Tom Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 It seems like every year there is a system to track around GHD or the Super Bowl. This won't be a larges system, but a system nonetheless that will lay down an accumulating snowfall across the region. Let's discuss... Overnight 00z EPS/GEFS ensembles seem to be holding onto the idea of a 1-3"...maybe 4" in spots near the GL's?? 00z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 DMX not excited about this or even early next week. Light snow/flurries chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Some of the ensemble members are picking up on a stronger southern feature on Sunday that transports more moisture north bound after the first initial wave on Sat/Sat pm. This is an interesting change I've noticed over the last 24 hours. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 This will be about as ‘spread the wealth’ as you can get for a sub forum this large. MPX calling for 1-3” with the higher totals in eastern MN/ western WI. Maybe of more significance here will be the wind chills. Headlines being considered for Sat/Sun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Hastings not excited either, says models really cutting back on precipitation amounts. What looked like great chances 24 hours ago, looking less likely. Winter 2017-2018 ladies and gentlemen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 00z GEFS members...some good hits, some not...I think the best areas will be across the eastern sub forum... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Its only Wednesday. Couple days available to track this. Friday is when to start taking forecasts seriously. Per NOAA: A developing clipper system will bring thenext opportunity for widespread accumulating snowfall on Saturday.The shortwave will be embedded within a broad and relatively flatupper level trough with a lower level sub tropical jet streams infrom the southwest providing additional lift. Models are in goodagreement on the occurrence of this event, but uncertainty stillremains with snowfall amounts. Will have to keep an eye on thissystem and moisture availability in subsequent forecasts. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'm thinking 1-2" at most from this first wave, assuming it doesn't just pass to our West. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 OAX put in likely wording for snow Sunday but said QPF is looking rather low. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 started out on Monday with Snow likely wording Sat and Sunday, down to snow showers sat...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Euro is saying that Ptype could be an issue for both waves here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.Not a bad signal for ensembles at this range 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player tan initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario.Don't you dare try to get me sucked back into this snow "potential" for this weekend!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Ensembles actually don't look like trash here for the Sunday wave. A few are showing advisory levels. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 12z Euro looks good for C NE/WI/IL/MIN IN for atleast a couple inches or more of snow. E NE/IA are in for 1-2” it looks like on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 So far, today’s model runs are trying to phase the southern stream energy which may be more of a player than initially advertised. Of note also, is the lake effect potential into SE WI/NE IL. Could be an interesting scenario. Yeah, that surface map in the Feb thread with the two 1010 SLP's had the look of possible phasing. Would be such a great surprise if we finally got one to work out that way for all.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 more than 1 or 2? Any maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 This is the Euro through 7 days. Major change from last night for the early week clipper. Much much weaker. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018013112/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_168.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 10:1 maps won't work for this event. There will be wind to dumb down ratios a bit, but I still think we'll be looking at well over 10:1 for this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Maps change so much from run to run, it is difficult to even follow at times. I have gone from many inches of snow to very little in just 1 run. By tomorrow it might bump up again or go to nothing. One of the frustrating things about this winter, is that events that look very promising even a day out have usually weakened or moved dramatically. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....Yeah lol. Honestly not sure how well that'd bode for us. I'd think that scenario would have it breaking apart/fizzling before it got here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 18Z GFS looks significantly different for the weekend too. Models aren't wasting any time flip flopping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 More phasing this run for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Anything over 1" will be a bonus with the Sunday wave I think. I know models look better than that, but dry air concerns me for this. I feel like some people will be screwed over by that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 D**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 thinking about moving to STL, but then I'd be expected to root for the Cardinals. Forget it. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018013118/240/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 d**n GFS looks great here but every run is COMPLETELY different.To bad its the 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 All these waves are going to fun to track in the coming days. LRC lines up well from back around Dec 21st - Dec 29th, none of them were significant snows but we picked a few inches out of all them around Christmas time. Model watching has been crazy lately. Hope everyone can score some snow out of these.If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution. I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 If I remember right it seems the models really had a hard time in Dec settling on a solution. I wonder what part of this pattern gives them so much trouble?Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?I think that could be it, I have also noticed when the ridge is strong out west the models have a hard time as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yes you are correct, I remember at least 1, if not 2 of them were now cast events for the most part. I don't know why but maybe with the jet stream moving so fast it gives the models trouble?Every model besides Euro performed horribly with the Christmas Eve snow here. Euro was good with the thought that there would be snow, but it was off by about 100 miles and continued to be until about right before. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Have to take these one wave at a time. past that the rest of the waves are to far out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 GRR ups the ante to 8" amnts..hmm LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)Issued at 319 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 Confidence is increasing for a period of moderate snow Saturdayafternoon into Saturday night as sfc wave tracks along arcticfront draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing shouldbe sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show liftthrough a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturdayafternoon into the early morning hours of Sunday. As we have seenrecently, these type of f-gen events can bring locally heavyamounts where the narrow bands pivot...so local amounts over 8inches are possible by Sunday morning. Cold air follows for Sunday but also low inversion heights as sfcridging builds in. Lake effect on Sunday and Monday should also belimited by the low DGZ heights and subsequent diamond dust natureof the snow crystals. Lower confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday as fast flow bringstiming differences for snow potential from clippers and arcticfropas during this period. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Huh. The 18z NAM looks like it begins phasing the two 1010 lows creating what could be a much longer duration event. Granted it’s the 84 hr NAM so.....Another 6"+ for me in the works??!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Gfs looking good for WI/MI/IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Another 6"+ for me in the works??!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2018 Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.