Super Bowl Weekend Snow

[BrianJK]

A glimmer of hope but that is all I am willing to give atm.

Good call

[Niko]

Per the 12z GFS, it's not a heavy thumper snow, but more a longer duration moderate snowfall. Not a bad look tho from this range I like it personally. Prolly won't meet 8"/24hrs for a Watch/Warn, and we all know how GRR rolls with that anyways..  

 

Has snow flying d*amn near 30hrs over mby. I'd take that..  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh60-90.gif

Nice long duration of snow.

[bud2380]

UK - most of what you see in Iowa is the Monday/Tuesday system.

 

 

[jaster220]

Nice long duration of snow.

 

Accuwx has you for 4-8" Sat-Sunday attm, so trend is our friend for sure! Gonna be watching footballs and snow fly at the same time - woohoo! 

[Niko]

Accuwx has you for 4-8" Sat-Sunday attm, so trend is our friend for sure! Gonna be watching footballs and snow fly at the same time - woohoo! 

All depends if a phase occurs. If it does, then, look-out.

 

Euro looks great! Ova 1inch for MBY.

[Tony]

All depends if a phase occurs. If it does, then, look-out.

 

Euro looks great! Ova 1inch for MBY.

It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.

[Jaycee]

UK - most of what you see in Iowa is the Monday/Tuesday system.

 

 ukmet_acc_precip_conus_132.png

 

 

HOW. I mean that little tiny dome is right over us! For the love of god, how are models in agreement with that lol CMONNN MANNN

[Niko]

It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.

Hopefully, by tomorrow, models will have a better handle of this. It is looking very interesting though, that's for sure.

[jaster220]

It's really trying to phase and if it does you guys have a better chance farther east of seeing some darn good snows.

 

We don't even need a full phase, just enough to pump some Gulf moisture into this, and yeah, unfortunately for NIL, it's gonna be just a bit east of you guys, but you could get a boost off the lake on a easterly flow

[Tony]

We don't even need a full phase, just enough to pump some Gulf moisture into this, and yeah, unfortunately for NIL, it's gonna be just a bit east of you guys, but you could get a boost off the lake on a easterly flow

Yea, lake enhancement is always a nice bonus when it does happen for our area.

[Minny_Weather]

At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

[Tony]

At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

Pretty much nada on this run. What a difference 12 hrs makes.

[gosaints]

At least Euro screws everyone. Except Norfolk.

Looks pretty good for Money 

[Money]

Looking solid for 4-6 ish here based on the 12z

[gosaints]

Looking solid for 4-6 ish here based on the 12z

u r due... 

[gosaints]

Models do seem to be cutting total qpf output

[gosaints]

Models do seem to be cutting total qpf output

Unless you live in Indiana and Ohio

[Minny_Weather]

Euro with about 4" between the two systems here. I'd take that and run with it.

[gosaints]

Euro with about 4" between the two systems here. I'd take that and run with it.

Highly doubt ratios are much above 10:1

[bud2380]

Euro is flip flopping like crazy for the early week system. Only jumped about 500 miles from the 00z run.

[Minny_Weather]

Highly doubt ratios are much above 10:1

Why's that? Wind may tear up the flakes a bit but upper air temps don't look like they'll do much, especially Sunday.

[gosaints]

Set up screams dust to me

[jaster220]

From SMI forum thd:

 

Euro crushes areas from I94 south next week. Between 3 systems it is showing 20" by the end of next week. Overall I think we are entering a very snow period.

@Rogue, I was almost thinking the pattern looked like what we had from Dec 30th, 2013 to Jan 5th, 2014.

I would not be at all surprised to see the weekend system trend upwards a bit. I feel comfortable right now going with 3-6".

MJO is also is a strong phase 6 heading into phase 7 and this combined with neutral to negative PNA, Positive NAO and negative EPO into the 10th and we may do very well.

[Niko]

Things are looking mighty interesting for all of SEMI and (even parts of SWMI, depending how far north it comes). Overall, have those shovels and snowblowers ready y'all Michiganders!

[FarmerRick]

OAX Disco:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018

Yet another clipper brings some snow chances to the area on Monday
into Monday night, moving southeast of the region early Tuesday.
It is important to note that the ECMWF also has a clipper during
this time, but keeps the bulk of the snow just to our north and
east with almost no impact for our area. Meanwhile, the GFS has
more of a central Rockies influence, with more snow further south.

Another clipper could be affecting the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, but again, both the GFS and ECMWF have opposing
solutions on timing and location of any precip potential, thus
forecast confidence is overall low through the extended period.

[jaster220]

Things are looking mighty interesting for all of SEMI and (even parts of SWMI, depending how far north it comes). Overall, have those shovels and snowblowers ready y'all Michiganders!

 

Yes they are..finally! 

 

GRR:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

 

Confidence is high for a period of moderate snow Saturday

afternoon through Sunday afternoon as sfc wave tracks along

arctic front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing

should be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show

lift through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday

afternoon into Sunday afternoon. these type of f-gen events can

bring locally heavy amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so

local amounts over 8 inches are possible by Sunday morning.

[hlcater]

GFS takes a big step towards the euro. Not changing my expectations from a week ago. 1" for most of E IA. Best snows should be north and east as the Euro has shown for several days.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM drops an inch here via a moderate squall. That's quite the contrast to other models.

[GDR]

Yeah back to a turd fest

[Tabitha]

Yeah back to a turd fest

 

Do you think there will be more than 2 inches of snow here (very low and unfavorably placed in the Black Hills) through Monday?

 

I seldom ask such questions; but your good taste shone through when you spoke sympathetically of my writing this morning...

[Andrew NE]

Yeah back to a turd fest

Same song and dance, although it fits the pattern all winter long.

[Madtown]

yep today should be a peak in totals and now slide back down to 1 maybe 2 by the time the event starts. Been pretty much the theme.

[jaster220]

Kinda sucks when only 1.5 peeps can be enthused for an event around here..

[Niko]

Yes they are..finally! 

 

GRR:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

 

Confidence is high for a period of moderate snow Saturday

afternoon through Sunday afternoon as sfc wave tracks along

arctic front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing

should be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show

lift through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday

afternoon into Sunday afternoon. these type of f-gen events can

bring locally heavy amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so

local amounts over 8 inches are possible by Sunday morning.

Sweet...

[Stacsh]

Light to moderate snow here on Lake Michigan. Temp @ 12 degrees. Blowing fine crystals. Beautiful sight. Almost have the grass covered for first time in 2 weeks. Looks like south central Michigan could be the sweet spot the next 10 days.

[Stacsh]

Light to moderate snow here on Lake Michigan. Temp @ 12 degrees. Blowing fine crystals. Beautiful sight. Almost have the grass covered for first time in 2 weeks. Looks like south central Michigan could be the sweet spot the next 10 days.

[jaster220]

100+ mile streamer formed just west of BC. Looks to be hitting Kzoo pretty decent

[St Paul Storm]

MPX with a rare evening update stating the snow tomorrow afternoon/evening may overachieve. May get 2” in about 3 hours, then snow most of the day on Saturday. Traffic could be an epic disaster with all the out of towners spinning their wheels.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yea these systems are quickly becoming a non event. One snow event south one mostly north and to get backlash light snow on backside

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is pretty sold on a snow squall solution for here. Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the sun come out right after similar to Spring squalls.