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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Deweydog

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Typhoon watch for hawaii. The next 3 weeks.

Out of season... strange indeed!

 

This will be the best chance for a true arctic front coming through quickly in a long time. Models just don't quite show that yet.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much.

 

As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint.

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Looking at the Feb 1990, 2011, and 2013 cold snaps the -15C 850mb temps predicted for this one would top all of those.  None of those 3 was a classic Fraser River blast either.  If we end up with snow on the ground the numbers from this event could be spectacular.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much.

 

As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint.

 

Yeah...this is certainly going to be a Puget Sound northward type event.  The gradients will be highly favorable for gusty north winds here on Sunday.  I get my coldest temperatures here with this type of situation due to no east wind to keep the atmosphere from decoupling.  I still think you guys could see some surprisingly cold low level air though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I want an arctic mega BLAST and I want it NOW!!

 

This looks like a classic.  The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday.  Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also.  This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways.  Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This looks like a classic.  The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday.  Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also.  This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways.  Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible.

What do you think of our snow chances after Sunday?  

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This looks like a classic. The WRF spits out temps well below freezing during the afternoon on Sunday. Really impressive north winds blasting down the Sound also. This could be on the level of 1956 in some ways. Just how cold the low level cold will be is always a bit of a question mark with events like this, but over performance is very possible.

Big mistake here Jim.

 

ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting.

 

Not an attack... but worth a reminder.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Big mistake here Jim.

ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting.

Not an attack... but worth a reminder.

Jaya mentioned alot of this cold is coming from upper levels before the front.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Big mistake here Jim.

 

ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting.

 

Not an attack... but worth a reminder.

Careful...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looking at the Feb 1990, 2011, and 2013 cold snaps the -15C 850mb temps predicted for this one would top all of those.  None of those 3 was a classic Fraser River blast either.  If we end up with snow on the ground the numbers from this event could be spectacular.

 

It should be impressively cool. Wouldn't be surprised if we score some kind of impressively cold/cloudy day or a day with cold high temps with precip falling...Lots of potential and really that's all we can ask for. 

 

NWS point forecast here is 33/21 Monday 37/16 Tuesday

 

This would be a record min/max on Monday and Tuesday would tie the record min/max and set a record low up here....These forecasts tend to run a bit warm here so I could easily see these verifying a couple degrees lower. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Big mistake here Jim.

 

ECMWF shows temps in the mid 30s on Sunday at 4 p.m. with a north wind and precip winding down. WRF is garbage with temps as we have seen many times with cold air coming in... this is where you frequently make a mistake in forecasting.

 

Not an attack... but worth a reminder.

Now my gut without any kind of expertise is most areas will get half inch to an inch and a half with the area getting the more than that will be the area with the convergence zone.

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Mid-30s would be pretty D**n impressive...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Careful...

Yeah. I am done discussing it. Its the same thing every time with the WRF. You have to go with the ECMWF surface map in this situation. WRF is always too aggressive in this situation.

 

Just the reality. Ignore it if you want.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mid-30s would be pretty d**n impressive...

Yes... and that is very likely. But not well below freezing on Sunday afternoon with a north wind blasting into Seattle.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yes... and that is very likely. But not well below freezing on Sunday afternoon with a north wind blasting into Seattle.

 

Wait people are serious about that?! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z NAM looks colder!!!!!!!

 

More cold biased than Rod Hill and Mark Nelsen's illegitimate stepson. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still loving the track of the low on the ICON.

 

Anywhere on the very north edge of that low should get some nice snowfall. I'm assuming that's what the ECMWF has hinted at with it's occasional focus on the South Sound.

Yep each model run shows some very heavy precipitation right around the low.  If the northerly winds pick up prior to the precipitation moving out of the region, you could get some pretty nice snowfall.

Screen Shot 2018-02-15 at 7.49.25 PM.png

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gfs_asnow24_nwus_9.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Seems like the timing has moved up a bit.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Models seem to be agreeing on an impressively cold upper airmass Monday/Tuesday. Too bad the surface does not appear to be cooperating so much.

 

As Justin said, if PDX manages to score anything below 40 for a high and 20 for a low I will consider this a solid event from a cold standpoint.

 

History would agree with you. Doesn't happen very often this late.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Shows 1 to 2 inches in king county at face value if reading it right

 

At face value... its less than an inch for most of the lowland areas of King County.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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