February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Like on Tuesday when they kept insisting Eugene was going to see accumulating snow when no model showed it. Then the next system they were calling for rain/snow mix in Eugene until the last minute even though every single model showed Eugene getting 2-4". It'd be one thing if this was a new thing, but they've been whiffing like this on events for over a decade. It is kind of embarrassing.

 

I cannot tell you how many times they have issued advisories or warnings up here when it is obvious the snow level is not going to get below 2500'. And just as many times they have not issued anything for the foothills when it is equally obvious heavy snow is going to fall to 1000'-1500'. 

 

I feel like they are vastly overstating tonights system, and understating Sunday PM/Monday AM's system. 

 

What's weird is that their morning AFD sounded perfectly reasonable about our chances tonight, saying maybe a dusting below 500' in some spots. Then they come blazing in a few hours later with this, in spite of no new data to support a change. 

 

I'm sorry to say but I think a handful of their forecasters just fail to understand the nuances of the setups that deliver low elevation snow. New transplants to the region perhaps, although it's been a problem with them for a decade...

[BLI snowman]

The AFD seems to make some sense:

 

"Bottom line: precipitation will begin as snow from

Washington/Multnomah counties, and northward. But due to light nature

in precipitation, think only minor accumulations (less than an inch)

in spots down low, with main accumulations staying above 500 to 800

feet.

 

Have issued Winter Weather Advisories for Willapa Hills and North

Coast Range above 700 feet, as well as the Cascades and Cascade

foothills, starting later this afternoon."

 

Not sure how issuing a WWA for everywhere after concluding this makes any sense though.

 

Yeah, they backtracked from that and went for 1-2" in the WWA for the entire metro area. Probably was a different shift that issued it.

[MossMan]

Holyshit, What?

Yeah it’s weird but the only way I have found that works.

 

Up to 19! A heatwave!

[Phil]

Hope you're all enjoying the SSW enhanced snowfall up there. Now if you could just send some of that precipitation down here.

Retracting the z-cells requires time, especially after such an unfavorable subdecadal background state. The SSW has definitely accelerated the process, but they might not respond fast enough to help you when the MJO/intra-seasonal forcing becomes more favorable in 2-3 weeks. Plus, by then you’re starting to fight seasonality, as the ITCZ begins to shift northward asymmetrically.

 

The tropics are a coupled, inertia-laden thermodynamic machine. They rarely flip on a dime. Thst said, the combination of the recent SSW, the approaching solar minimum, and the -QBO (maturing towards the summer solstice) will all aid in retracting the z-cell network equatorward, which in the long run, will benefit the southwestern states. Whether it happens in time to send some storminess into the SW over the next three months, however, remains to be seen.

[snow_wizard]

40° cold rain coming up for a week or so.

 

Those with a little elevation may do okay.

 

Way too pessimistic here.  The snow level goes below 500 a number of times.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not liking the temperature trend here in Bellingham......IMBY at midnight it was about 23, it hit 20 around 3am and has been warming ever since. Up to 28 now in what is *supposed* to be the coldest part of the day. Looks like most of the weather stations in the hills on the east side of Bellingham are reporting 28-30. KBLI has been down around 20-21 all night, but has shot up to 25 in the last hour.

 

Kelly Rd north, its still in the low 20's. I have a feeling this is going to be a December repeat (or was it in November) where North County gets the goods and south county gets the shaft!

This entire event has been pretty weak for Bellingham, compared to most the region.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to a bone chilling 19 here this morning.  I have to tip my hat to the cold aspect of this event.  Still need more snow and might get it.  Thew NWS seems very confident about today's prospects and then snow showers on Sunday night in spite of the models being so stingy with precip.

[Front Ranger]

Canadian curling team missed getting a medal. What a shame.

[seattleweatherguy]

25 with a dp of 19 cold!

[Blizzard777]

I like the snow shadow from the overpass!

 

You suppose the insects there are having a conversation about how the bridge will probably

cast a shadow in there area and will be able to hold onto the snow while south of the bridge their in the screw zone!

[snow_wizard]

The GFS seems to have shifted the screw hole south of the Central Puget Sound over the next week.  Not really buying the south Sound getting nothing either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, imagine this in December or January!

 

[snow_wizard]

I have a generally good feeling for the EPSL for tonight and tomorrow morning.

 

NWS seems to think the onshore flow/south wind never really makes it in over here and we stay snow for the most part. Hope they're right.

 

I've noticed straight south winds have a very hard time getting into my area.  I'm having a hard time understanding why the GFS is so light with precip amounts though.  It's not like we have a moisture killing east going.  We will also have WSW flow at the 850mb level to hook the moisture around the Olympics.

[HighlandExperience]

I've noticed straight south winds have a very hard time getting into my area. I'm having a hard time understanding why the GFS is so light with precip amounts though. It's not like we have a moisture killing east going. We will also have WSW flow at the 850mb level to hook the moisture around the Olympics.

Looks like more snow chances next week. To bad this didn’t happen 3 weeks ago

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This time frame is going to be one to watch. Been looking good for days now.

[Front Ranger]

A few flakes falling now, blown around by the south wind.

 

Fortunately, a lot of cold air to the south.

[snow_wizard]

Major snow threat around day 6/ 7 on the GFS.  A low comes up from the SW.  Huge potential with that.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking Bellingham will be ok temp wise.  In spite of some sudden warming they have a very low dp.  SE winds are amazingly powerful at raising temps in Bellingham.

[snow_wizard]

Fortunately, a lot of cold air to the south.

 

For sure.  The cold is deep too.

[Timmy]

Just another casual foot of new snow shown on the gfs here over the next 7 days. After spending an hour digging my rig out, I’m really regretting not getting new snow tires this winter...

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian curling team missed getting a medal. What a shame.

Ouch. I stayed up and watched that game. The US getting a medal might be a good thing for the game overall. Shuster has come a long ways in recent years. I played them years ago and they were pretty average back then. A team we were disappointed to lose to.

[Front Ranger]

Impressively cold week across the West.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Forecasts for up to 10” in parts of Metro Vancouver today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think temps finally start moving back towards normal around March 5th...Just a hunch...And the ensembles agree...

[Front Ranger]

Just another casual foot of new snow shown on the gfs here over the next 7 days. After spending an hour digging my rig out, I’m really regretting not getting new snow tires this winter...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1652-hard-evidence-for-a-cold-pnw-wintermy-nps-index/

[snow_wizard]

Looks like more snow chances next week. To bad this didn’t happen 3 weeks ago

 

I think we should just be grateful it's not 3 weeks later.  This part of the winter is still capable of good things.

[umadbro]

12/29/09 is stuck in my head right now, though I believe Dewpoints were lower during that surprise event.

[snow_wizard]

If the track of that low around hour 156 can shift east a couple of degree many areas would get blasted with snow.  As it is many still score.

[Geos]

16 degrees and clouding up!

Cloudy here now too. About 24 right now. I dont think we'll have any issue staying all snow into tomorrow.

[HighlandExperience]

I think we should just be grateful it's not 3 weeks later.  This part of the winter is still capable of good things.

 

A March 1989 (was it March?) type event would be something amazing to see. Sure did get cloudy fast. Hopefully will have some flurries by late afternoon. 

[Geos]

 

Chilly morning. Records falling all over the place.

Seattle 24° Old rec 27° in 2011.

Olympia 16° Old rec 20° in 2005

Bellingham 19° Old rec 22° in 1952

Hoquiam 24° Old rec 27° in 2017

Quillayute 22° Old rec 25° in 2017

NWS Seattle 27° Old rec 30 in 2011 #wawx— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 23, 2018

Nicely done.

[HighlandExperience]

Canadians generous as usual 

 

[snow_wizard]

That pattern late next week is full of huge potential.  If you take a blend of the ICON and GFS things get really interesting.

[Esquimalt]

Not liking the GEM in the MR.  Looking pretty rainy at the low levels even in that March 1st/2nd period.  

[BLI snowman]

This entire event has been pretty weak for Bellingham, compared to most the region.

 

They should do fine today.

[snow_wizard]

A March 1989 (was it March?) type event would be something amazing to see. Sure did get cloudy fast. Hopefully will have some flurries by late afternoon. 

 

Yup.  March 1989 was a thing of beauty.  Widespread 8 to 12 inch accumulations.

[HighlandExperience]

Not liking the GEM in the MR.  Looking pretty rainy at the low levels even in that March 1st/2nd period.  

 

Is it snowing in Victoria? Looks like some stronger echos on the radar moving thru

[TT-SEA]

I think temps finally start moving back towards normal around March 5th...Just a hunch...And the ensembles agree...

 

Evil.

 

This post destroys everything that will happen in the 10 days before that time.    You have just ruined everything and seem to take joy in it.    

 

No one will be able to enjoy their snow and cold now.   Why did you do this? 

[HighlandExperience]

Yup.  March 1989 was a thing of beauty.  Widespread 8 to 12 inch accumulations.

 

That would be amazing if something like that happened next week. Still within the realm of possibility even in our warm climate lol

[Canadian guy]

Is it snowing in Victoria? Looks like some stronger echos on the radar moving thru

Very light snow coming down here.