February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[bud2380]

Models have been showing a strong clipper for days now, and are starting to come into agreement on placement.  Here is last night's Euro.  

 

[bud2380]

Here is the GFS from 06z

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020206/102/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Thanks for starting the thread for the Mon/Tue wave Bud!  

[Grizzcoat]

GFS  Further N.

[Tom]

12z GFS...

[Grizzcoat]

12z GFS...

that is 00Z

[Tom]

that is 00Z

Sorry Grizz, your right...my head is still not 100%

[Grizzcoat]

No prob, that's why we work as a team!!

[GDR]

Thanks for starting a thread! NOT!!!

[bud2380]

Closer view of the GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020212/096/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Tony]

No prob, that's why we work as a team!!

Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is?

[Grizzcoat]

Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is?

 

24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 .

[Tony]

24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 .

Gotcha...thanks.

[Tom]

This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed.  Shall we edit this title to include both??  Prob will keep things cleaner.

[Clinton]

This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed.  Shall we edit this title to include both??  Prob will keep things cleaner.

Yes please!

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[Tom]

Canadian

 

Hey Bud, do you mind if we edit the title to include both systems???

[bud2380]

Sure, whatever you want to call it is fine.  

[Niko]

This could be a doozy of a storm.

[jaster220]

This could be a doozy of a storm.

 

Well, it's nice to see the GooFuS leaning towards the 0z Euro Cntrl that was posted by Grizz earlier. Take that track due east and we'll be white gold 

[jaster220]

CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map

 

[Niko]

CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map

 

20180201_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

In the Heavy snow circle for MBY, as this thing has abundant GOM moisture to work w. Man, its going to get very white here.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.

[james1976]

[bud2380]

GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well.  

[Hawkeye]

GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well.  

 

The UK has some decent energy dipping into the pacnw in six days, as well.

[jaster220]

Wednesday, they're edging us closer to the 50/50 line..

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS have trended NW in the previous 4 runs and more noteably more members are tracking the secondary stronger wave on Tue near the TX Panhandle up through C MO/C IL....

 

 

 

 

24-hour qpf trends over the previous 4 runs are looking better...

 

 

 

[hlcater]

I'm actually decently confident we make up some significant ground on our ~12" deficit. I dont think we will make up all of it, but most models are pretty consistent of having 6+ here from multiple systems over the coming week. Although I don't wanna be too confident as last minute shifts seem to be a recurring theme this season. Of course, the one on Monday seems to be the biggest out of them all and that's the one I really want. The one tomorrow night looks like a 0-2 incher.

[Niko]

12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.

Looks like you are in for some snow w this storm.

[bud2380]

Euro looks like about .3" qpf for much of E Iowa and into Illinois for the Monday evening system.  

[Tony]

12z mean is north of operational again

[bud2380]

Euro very solid for the sound 2/3's of NE for Tuesday with the next wave by hour 102.  Widespread qpf of around 1/4" so far.  

[bud2380]

Euro looks a lot like the UK with the Tuesday storm.  Starting to look promising.  Hits southern IA good and is even getting snow up towards Cedar Rapids.  

[Grizzcoat]

Euro even has snow for E.NE on Tuesday. 

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting  IOW and CID I'd appreciate it.  Thanks.  

[Grizzcoat]

Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting  IOW and CID I'd appreciate it.  Thanks.  

 I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. 

 

IOW- (corrected)

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -7.2   -11.0    1017      61      78    0.01     538     525   

SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -7.9   -17.5    1025      41      79    0.00     534     514   

MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4   -17.1    1029      26       7    0.00     537     515   

MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8   -13.5    1030      33       4    0.00     542     519   

MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4   -11.5    1026      33       2    0.00     547     527   

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.3   -10.6    1024      47     100    0.07     548     529   

TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -12.3    1022      71      92    0.15     548     531   

TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0    -9.9    1025      82      36    0.00     550     531   

TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2    -9.2    1028      80      38    0.00     551     530   

TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -10.0    1028      74      97    0.03     551     530   

WED 00Z 07-FEB  -7.8    -9.9    1025      82      99    0.14     549     530   

WED 06Z 07-FEB  -9.7   -11.5    1027      81      97    0.14     546     525   

WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0   -12.0    1030      74      80    0.01     544     521

 

​CID

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -8.4   -12.2    1018      61      77    0.01     538     524   

SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -9.0   -18.0    1026      41      78    0.01     532     512   

MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2   -17.5    1029      28       7    0.00     536     514   

MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0   -13.5    1030      36       4    0.00     541     519   

MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1   -11.8    1026      35       3    0.00     546     526   

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.8   -10.9    1024      52     100    0.10     547     529   

TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.5   -13.3    1023      75      85    0.14     547     529   

TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7    -9.6    1025      85      33    0.00     549     530   

TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4    -9.4    1028      82      37    0.00     550     529   

TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.7   -10.3    1029      74      99    0.03     550     528   

WED 00Z 07-FEB  -8.2   -10.5    1026      80      98    0.09     549     529   

WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2   -11.9    1028      77      99    0.09     545     524   

WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5   -12.4    1031      72      76    0.01     543     520

 

   

[bud2380]

Thanks Grizz.  With those 850s so low, ratios could be 15:1.  This could be a fun week.  And only about a 12-18 hour break between systems.  

[gabel23]

 I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. 

 

IOW- (corrected)

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -7.2   -11.0    1017      61      78    0.01     538     525   

SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -7.9   -17.5    1025      41      79    0.00     534     514   

MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4   -17.1    1029      26       7    0.00     537     515   

MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8   -13.5    1030      33       4    0.00     542     519   

MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4   -11.5    1026      33       2    0.00     547     527   

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.3   -10.6    1024      47     100    0.07     548     529   

TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -12.3    1022      71      92    0.15     548     531   

TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0    -9.9    1025      82      36    0.00     550     531   

TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2    -9.2    1028      80      38    0.00     551     530   

TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -10.0    1028      74      97    0.03     551     530   

WED 00Z 07-FEB  -7.8    -9.9    1025      82      99    0.14     549     530   

WED 06Z 07-FEB  -9.7   -11.5    1027      81      97    0.14     546     525   

WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0   -12.0    1030      74      80    0.01     544     521

 

​CID

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -8.4   -12.2    1018      61      77    0.01     538     524   

SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -9.0   -18.0    1026      41      78    0.01     532     512   

MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2   -17.5    1029      28       7    0.00     536     514   

MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0   -13.5    1030      36       4    0.00     541     519   

MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1   -11.8    1026      35       3    0.00     546     526   

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.8   -10.9    1024      52     100    0.10     547     529   

TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.5   -13.3    1023      75      85    0.14     547     529   

TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7    -9.6    1025      85      33    0.00     549     530   

TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4    -9.4    1028      82      37    0.00     550     529   

TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.7   -10.3    1029      74      99    0.03     550     528   

WED 00Z 07-FEB  -8.2   -10.5    1026      80      98    0.09     549     529   

WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2   -11.9    1028      77      99    0.09     545     524   

WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5   -12.4    1031      72      76    0.01     543     520

 

   

Can you get OLU for me? Thanks.