bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Models have been showing a strong clipper for days now, and are starting to come into agreement on placement. Here is last night's Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Here is the GFS from 06z http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020206/102/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Thanks for starting the thread for the Mon/Tue wave Bud! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 GFS Further N. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z GFS...that is 00Z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 that is 00ZSorry Grizz, your right...my head is still not 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 No prob, that's why we work as a team!! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Thanks for starting a thread! NOT!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Closer view of the GFS http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020212/096/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 No prob, that's why we work as a team!!Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is? 24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 . Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 .Gotcha...thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed. Shall we edit this title to include both?? Prob will keep things cleaner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed. Shall we edit this title to include both?? Prob will keep things cleaner.Yes please! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Canadian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Canadian Hey Bud, do you mind if we edit the title to include both systems??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Sure, whatever you want to call it is fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 This could be a doozy of a storm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 This could be a doozy of a storm. Well, it's nice to see the GooFuS leaning towards the 0z Euro Cntrl that was posted by Grizz earlier. Take that track due east and we'll be white gold 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map 20180201_CPC_hazards_d3_7.pngIn the Heavy snow circle for MBY, as this thing has abundant GOM moisture to work w. Man, its going to get very white here. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well. The UK has some decent energy dipping into the pacnw in six days, as well. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Wednesday, they're edging us closer to the 50/50 line.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z GEFS have trended NW in the previous 4 runs and more noteably more members are tracking the secondary stronger wave on Tue near the TX Panhandle up through C MO/C IL.... 24-hour qpf trends over the previous 4 runs are looking better... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 I'm actually decently confident we make up some significant ground on our ~12" deficit. I dont think we will make up all of it, but most models are pretty consistent of having 6+ here from multiple systems over the coming week. Although I don't wanna be too confident as last minute shifts seem to be a recurring theme this season. Of course, the one on Monday seems to be the biggest out of them all and that's the one I really want. The one tomorrow night looks like a 0-2 incher. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.Looks like you are in for some snow w this storm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro looks like about .3" qpf for much of E Iowa and into Illinois for the Monday evening system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z mean is north of operational again 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro very solid for the sound 2/3's of NE for Tuesday with the next wave by hour 102. Widespread qpf of around 1/4" so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro looks a lot like the UK with the Tuesday storm. Starting to look promising. Hits southern IA good and is even getting snow up towards Cedar Rapids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro even has snow for E.NE on Tuesday. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting IOW and CID I'd appreciate it. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting IOW and CID I'd appreciate it. Thanks. I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. IOW- (corrected)SUN 12Z 04-FEB -7.2 -11.0 1017 61 78 0.01 538 525 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -7.9 -17.5 1025 41 79 0.00 534 514 MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4 -17.1 1029 26 7 0.00 537 515 MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8 -13.5 1030 33 4 0.00 542 519 MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4 -11.5 1026 33 2 0.00 547 527 MON 18Z 05-FEB -9.3 -10.6 1024 47 100 0.07 548 529 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -8.9 -12.3 1022 71 92 0.15 548 531 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0 -9.9 1025 82 36 0.00 550 531 TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2 -9.2 1028 80 38 0.00 551 530 TUE 18Z 06-FEB -8.6 -10.0 1028 74 97 0.03 551 530 WED 00Z 07-FEB -7.8 -9.9 1025 82 99 0.14 549 530 WED 06Z 07-FEB -9.7 -11.5 1027 81 97 0.14 546 525 WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0 -12.0 1030 74 80 0.01 544 521 CIDSUN 12Z 04-FEB -8.4 -12.2 1018 61 77 0.01 538 524 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -9.0 -18.0 1026 41 78 0.01 532 512 MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2 -17.5 1029 28 7 0.00 536 514 MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0 -13.5 1030 36 4 0.00 541 519 MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1 -11.8 1026 35 3 0.00 546 526 MON 18Z 05-FEB -9.8 -10.9 1024 52 100 0.10 547 529 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -9.5 -13.3 1023 75 85 0.14 547 529 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7 -9.6 1025 85 33 0.00 549 530 TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4 -9.4 1028 82 37 0.00 550 529 TUE 18Z 06-FEB -8.7 -10.3 1029 74 99 0.03 550 528 WED 00Z 07-FEB -8.2 -10.5 1026 80 98 0.09 549 529 WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2 -11.9 1028 77 99 0.09 545 524 WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5 -12.4 1031 72 76 0.01 543 520 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Thanks Grizz. With those 850s so low, ratios could be 15:1. This could be a fun week. And only about a 12-18 hour break between systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. IOW- (corrected)SUN 12Z 04-FEB -7.2 -11.0 1017 61 78 0.01 538 525 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -7.9 -17.5 1025 41 79 0.00 534 514 MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4 -17.1 1029 26 7 0.00 537 515 MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8 -13.5 1030 33 4 0.00 542 519 MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4 -11.5 1026 33 2 0.00 547 527 MON 18Z 05-FEB -9.3 -10.6 1024 47 100 0.07 548 529 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -8.9 -12.3 1022 71 92 0.15 548 531 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0 -9.9 1025 82 36 0.00 550 531 TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2 -9.2 1028 80 38 0.00 551 530 TUE 18Z 06-FEB -8.6 -10.0 1028 74 97 0.03 551 530 WED 00Z 07-FEB -7.8 -9.9 1025 82 99 0.14 549 530 WED 06Z 07-FEB -9.7 -11.5 1027 81 97 0.14 546 525 WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0 -12.0 1030 74 80 0.01 544 521 CIDSUN 12Z 04-FEB -8.4 -12.2 1018 61 77 0.01 538 524 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -9.0 -18.0 1026 41 78 0.01 532 512 MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2 -17.5 1029 28 7 0.00 536 514 MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0 -13.5 1030 36 4 0.00 541 519 MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1 -11.8 1026 35 3 0.00 546 526 MON 18Z 05-FEB -9.8 -10.9 1024 52 100 0.10 547 529 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -9.5 -13.3 1023 75 85 0.14 547 529 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7 -9.6 1025 85 33 0.00 549 530 TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4 -9.4 1028 82 37 0.00 550 529 TUE 18Z 06-FEB -8.7 -10.3 1029 74 99 0.03 550 528 WED 00Z 07-FEB -8.2 -10.5 1026 80 98 0.09 549 529 WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2 -11.9 1028 77 99 0.09 545 524 WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5 -12.4 1031 72 76 0.01 543 520 Can you get OLU for me? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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