Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north. Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Skillings FB Page.....A snowier pattern ahead? It continues to look that way over the coming week--but with some interesting twists on the way, including some possible patchy light rain Saturday afternoon and evening as the Chicago area break above freezing for a day Saturday. Highs may top out in the mid 30s. T Any liquid-form precip would amount to quite a change from this morning's 5-degree lows at Midway and O'Hare--and the 0-deg min recorded at Rochelle and the 1-deg lows at McHenry, Mundelein and Barrington. Lows bottomed out at +2-deg at Elgin, DeKalb, Joliet, Willowbrook, Dwight and Batavia. It's always interesting to see the graphics depicting one week cumulative snowfalls pop up on line when snowier patterns loom. Skill levels of such forecasts are low at longer ranges in time--even in this era of quite remarkable numerical modeling of our weather. They make facscinating viewing but should hardly be viewed as carved in stone. We're much better at identifying potential trends in snow frequency and occurrence--then identifying amounts as we move closer to the snow amounts in question. We continue to monitor the following periods for potential snowfall in the coming week. None of these is yet carved in stone (though the late Saturday night and Sunday snow seems a reasonably good bet--what's a dicey call at this point are the amounts which might occur here)--and the level of uncertainty of precise snow tallies with the more distant systems is not yet clear. The periods being monitored are: ---Late Saturday night into Sunday ---Monday night --Tuesday night into Wednesday (the track of the system will be critical in how much if any snow occurs in this instance) --And toward Friday Included are some graphics identifying trends and offering some insight into the range in model projections of possible accumulations on the Sunday system. When looking at a system like that one, which is still days away, the best approach is to look at the range in current machine accumulation projections. Specific numbers will become cleared as the system is closer to us. One trend that seems to be coming through on the various snowfall forecasts on this system is that amounts are likely to taper off the farther south you move from Chicago. Also true is that this system is hardly a major storm of the time we've been reflecting on looking back 7 years at the Ground Hog's Day storm in early February 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Can you get OLU for me? Thanks. OLU- then I'am off to bed. Working the "nightshift" with Lionel (Ritchie) SUN 18Z 04-FEB -10.5 -18.3 1035 35 64 0.02 542 516 MON 00Z 05-FEB -9.7 -14.9 1031 35 2 0.00 546 522 MON 06Z 05-FEB -10.5 -9.5 1027 40 64 0.00 552 531 MON 12Z 05-FEB -8.1 -6.0 1018 42 67 0.00 552 538 MON 18Z 05-FEB -0.2 -3.2 1014 42 61 0.01 552 540 TUE 00Z 06-FEB -2.9 -7.7 1019 60 41 0.00 551 536 TUE 06Z 06-FEB -7.6 -8.0 1025 63 49 0.00 552 532 TUE 12Z 06-FEB -8.4 -12.1 1027 66 92 0.03 551 530 TUE 18Z 06-FEB -10.6 -12.6 1030 70 99 0.15 549 526 WED 00Z 07-FEB -10.3 -12.3 1030 70 98 0.02 547 524 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north. Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week! Hopefully getting extended a bit up my way. But, I get treated better than most with Sat/Sun so not gonna be greedy..Chitown needs this SOOOO bad! SMI close-up: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 I know, I know, It's the NavGem, but I like the moist look. still holds the SLP too long and thus it tracks quite far south.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z mean is north of operational again Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting There are some big dogs in that group that are eye popping for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 From DVN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long 20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png Our snow drought has to end soon right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea.Normally seeing this type of map showing yet another snow shaft for East Central Nebraska would make me pretty angry... however I have checked out of wanting to see snow here after our last system. Enjoy this “token” snow, whoever gets it... this guy is ready for an early Spring (and I hope and believe the groundhog was full of s%^t earlier today). Bring the state of Nebraska a February torch again, please Mother Nature! Cold and dry sounds utterly painful as we have seen way too much of that around here the last 3 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 18z GEFS...nudged a little more NW again...if 00z GFS maintains the trend, its something to pay attention to going forward. Also, I'm seeing more juice ensemble members which may provide a clue towards a better organized southern stream system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then us Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then usMaybe we should just call ourselves lucky... no thanks to more “token” snows. Also makes me feel better that I turned down an awesome deal on a snowblower last year, I figured I wouldn’t need it around here. Let’s add another WAY below normal snowfall Winter season to the list and move on to Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Models should have better understanding by early next week. Overall, looks very, very interesting. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long 20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.pngPicture-perfect map! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Out in 00z NAM lala land, a sweet high end advisory type event across parts of IA/N IL/N IN Mon/Mon pm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice.This is the 1st wave on Mon/Mon pm that drops a nice swath of snow. The secondary piece which develops later Tue into Wed may end up being the stronger system to watch. Let’s see what the 00z suite of runs show. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Could you post the map from 6 or 12 hours prior for those of us in the plains?I would if I had those. That map was snagged elsewhere Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Gfs coming in south with the next two waves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS still looking solid for Iowa on Monday... a nice 0.3" qpf band from nw to ec IA. DVN's disco this afternoon mentioned 15 or even 20+ to 1 ratio. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 The Monday event looks very similar to the December 29th system that dropped 6” IMBY. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Kc gets hit well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS keeps shearing out this wave on pretty much every run but Euro and ensembles think otherwise. Lots of runs to look out before this wave gets figured out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Canadian a bit further north with the first wave than the GFS and then way south with the second wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Noaa: Attention in the extended period remains on the potential for moresignificant snowfall on Wednesday. The aforementioned shortwave overthe western CONUS will dig through the central plains and eventuallytrack up the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, leading to a developingsurface low pressure system over the eastern CONUS. As with itsprevious several runs, the ECMWF places this surface low overeastern OH/western PA which keeps SE Michigan in a favorableposition for heavy snow on the NW side of the system. However, theGFS and Canadian models remain adamant on the system trackingfarther east and thereby keeping our area out of the precipitationaltogether. Chance PoPs remain in the forecast while variability inmodel solutions remains so high. Expect a clearer picture to developas the upper wave is better sampled early next week. Guidance doesagree that highs will remain slightly below average Wednesday. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Icon is way south on the 2nd wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Icon is way south on the 2nd waveI guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z GFS paints 4-6” across NE IL (5” at ORD) nice trend and certainly looking like Lehs is in the table. This would be a nice base to build off of to start a snowy trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Can anyone spot the dome? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday 00z runs for Cedar Rapids GFS: 0.32"GDPS: 0.32"ICON: 0.37" I'm getting a bit excited. It's still 60 hours away, though... plenty of time to lift or sag a couple counties, or weaken. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Can anyone spot the dome?Peyton Manning: Omaha! Omaha! Omaha! Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 I guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash. Never say that! The ICON is an icon! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 It's the ICON, but thats juicy. I like it. Especially sitting just north of the model mean. I think we're in a good spot for this one. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Can anyone spot the dome? Yes, Logan is running away from it... Jessica is with him Francis is in hot pursuit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Uk also solid hit along the i80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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