February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Iowawx]

Radar is expanding in western Iowa so I’m not giving up on this storm at all yet. First round was a nice moderate band. Let’s see where things stand in the next couple hours.

[Trinomial]

Sounds like it should really pick up after midnight. Still talks of 1+ rates after midnight for NIL.

[bud2380]

The ICON hits me pretty good tomorrow night. Wouldn’t be a bad consolation after this bust

[james1976]

Just took a quick walk up n down the street. Pounding here. Flakes have been failry small most of the event so far.
Just measured 3.5"

[hlcater]

Radar is expanding in western Iowa so I’m not giving up on this storm at all yet. First round was a nice moderate band. Let’s see where things stand in the next couple hours.

Not really. I think we get 1" or less of additional snow.

[Sciascia]

How would you define under perform?

If the forecast was 8-14", I'd say 4-6 would be underperform. Basically 50% or less than forecast.

[Tom]

That band out near Norfolk stretching just south of Sioux city looks amazing.  Hoping to get see it hold together overnight as it heads east.

[Iowawx]

Not really. I think we get 1" or less of additional snow.

Look out by Denison?

[james1976]

I'm getting 30 DBZ right now!
​I am literally in the heart of this right now. I cant believe it!
This just reminds me of how much I love snowstorms.

[Wartburger]

That's the million dollar question.  Will the bands entering Iowa move E or NE

[hlcater]

Look out by Denison?

That's one band and it's progressive, realistically that won't drop very much on a single area despite the rates.

[Hawkeye]

I just measured 1.8 inches.  Couldn't even get 2 before it lifted up and away. 

[Madtown]

....looks like 1.5" atm...its a glitter globe out there!

[Wartburger]

Trained spotter just reported 7.5" 2 Miles NE of Fort Dodge, Iowa

[Sciascia]

Mesoscale Discussion 0061

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0907 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2018

 

Areas affected...Portions of IA...southern WI...and northern IL

 

Concerning...Heavy snow

 

Valid 090307Z - 090900Z

 

SUMMARY...A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow will likely

produce snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour through the early

morning.

 

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough present over NE/KS

will move eastward across the Upper Midwest overnight. Large-scale

lift ahead of this trough has promoted a broad area of light to

moderate snow extending from eastern SD to southern WI/northern IL.

A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across southern IA is

focusing a low-level baroclinic zone across central IA as of 03Z.

Related frontogenetic forcing should remain centered around 850 mb,

and a narrow west-to-east oriented band of moderate to heavy snow

has recently developed across central IA on the nose of the

low-level jet. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour in this band

will likely occur through the remainder of the evening and continue

through the overnight hours. As the shortwave trough develops

eastward, the moderate to heavy snow band will shift eastward into

southern WI and northern IL (including the Chicago metro), mainly

after 05Z.

 

..Gleason.. 02/09/2018

[bud2380]

Canadian looks good for tomorrow night too for my area. Might get a few inches out of this system after all. I sure wish I was at my parents house in Guttenberg. Looks like they should easily get 8-10”.

[james1976]

Just hit 4.0"
​I noticed this last time out measuring there is a bit of a breeze now. Gonna affect ratios a bit.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow! CMC has the band as well

 

 

 

 

And its trying to move the snow north for Saturday!

 

[Madtown]

gotta believe I manage 3 more inches outta this

[bud2380]

Sweet 7.5” from the Canadian for tomorrow night. Guaranteed to happen.

[Hawkeye]

In central Iowa, the snow has lifted so far north that even HW-20 is on the southern edge and the heavy snow is north of them.

[Madtown]

just upgraded to a wsw.....7" or more here

[indianajohn]

Looks like they are backing off on the amounts...

[hlcater]

If this system is flying north, you'd think its cousin tomorrow evening will too. Although it isn't as strong.

[Jaycee]

Weenie band unite over omaha!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020900/033/snku_acc.us_c.png

If you can give me 65 and sun while it happens, go ahead and have fun with your weenis band. Otherwise screw you guys, that ween is mine. where’s muh pitchfork ————-E

[Hawkeye]

DVN finally downgraded the warning for the I-80 corridor.

[james1976]

Heavy band has lifted just north of me now. I cant believe how far north this has lifted. It was supposed to sag SE and looked like it earlier. The only thing sagging SE is the tail.

[james1976]

Wow! CMC has the band as well

 

 

 

 

And its trying to move the snow north for Saturday!

 

 

Seeing how far north this first system has went, I would expect this wave to go north. You might score a nice event out of this.

[Iowawx]

DVN finally downgraded the warning for the I-80 corridor.

Do you think they’re right to include CR in the warning still? Forecast for Linn County says an additional 2-4 inches tonight.

[Tabitha]

Just 7/10ths of an inch of snow from this system down at the Rapid City NWS WFO as of 5 PM MDT...so beating O'Hare is going to be a very tall order indeed!

 

It is snowing rather earnestly in the Black Hills at present and should continue to do so into Friday...so we'll see what happens.

 

I have snow, blowing snow, and very dense fog at 6:42 PM MDT...with a temp of 11 F and a very gusty NE wind.

 

 

 

I have measured 1.8" of snow from this storm as of 9:30 PM MST.

 

The monthly total is 3.5" and the seasonal total is 19.0".

 

Current snow depth on the property ranges from 2 to 4 inches.

 

Some snow should continue on & off here until late tomorrow afternoon; but the additional amounts are sort of hard to pin down. 

 

I would think that at least a little more is possible; maybe more than a little if lucky.

[Madtown]

2" down....calling for 5 to 7 more!!!

[james1976]

Still dumping here even though I'm back in the 15 DBZ. The thing Ive noticed this entire system is the flakes have been fairly small the whole time. Definitely cutting into ratios. I'm only a lil over 4" and its been snowing pretty hard for 7 hours. Seems like I should have more. I wonder what ratios are.

[Jaycee]

Heavy band has lifted just north of me now. I cant believe how far north this has lifted. It was supposed to sag SE and looked like it earlier. The only thing sagging SE is the tail.

And your snow boner amirite?

[Money]

Wagons north

[james1976]

Back edge is by Spencer already. I may not even get 6" total. Not complaining!!! Still great but things were looking crazy an hour ago. Back edge is moving in fast!

[Tony]

Wagons north

Radar sure looks to point your way. Gertting concerned down this way

[Sciascia]

I guess this is part of the weather roller coaster. Difficult for people that work at NWS offices that see model run after run that show a lot of snow to fall. So they put out reasonable warnings, and then it falls apart. Has to be frustrating.

[james1976]

4.5" now but the breeze has really picked up. Might be the last good measurement I get.

[Madtown]

the blob headed to Omaha looks sick!!!!

[Tabitha]

I have measured 1.8" of snow from this storm as of 9:30 PM MST.

 

The monthly total is 3.5" and the seasonal total is 19.0".

 

Current snow depth on the property ranges from 2 to 4 inches.

 

Some snow should continue on & off here until late tomorrow afternoon; but the additional amounts are sort of hard to pin down. 

 

I would think that at least a little more is possible; maybe more than a little if lucky.

 

It is interesting (and rather melancholy) how the progged snow band set up just to my SW.

 

This afternoon the 12z models had some debate; with the NAM getting it right; while the RGEM had it right over me.  The ICON also had it over me at 12z; before moving towards the NAM in a later run.

 

A really close miss; and par for the course.

 

On the good side; there is pretty fair 0z support for that little band to the SW to back a little to the NE over the next few hours (sort of expanding in breadth); and chances of some accumulating snow overnight seem pretty fair.