February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

12z GFS...second piece...plenty of time to see if that energy can phase into something bigger...

[Niko]

Snow percentage already is at 80% for Thurs thru Fri. That is impressive.

[Hawkeye]

Canadian has shifted south and is similar to the GFS... favors eastern NE, southern 2/3 Iowa, northern IL.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX has us at 60% for Saturday.

[hlcater]

What did the euro have? Probably not much because it wasn't posted lol.

[Minny_Weather]

What did the euro have? Probably not much because it wasn't posted lol.

Euro is just starting to pick up on the main wave. I'm eager to see 12Z. All that stands in the way of a storm is Euro.

[Snowlover76]

OAX has us at 60% for Saturday.

snow?

 

sorry at work right now

[Minny_Weather]

snow?

 

sorry at work right now

No, a 60% chance of a rabid herd of dogs with rabies coming thru Lincoln.

[jaster220]

No, a 60% chance of a rabid herd of dogs with rabies coming thru Lincoln.

 

 ROFLMAO!

[bud2380]

canadian.  

 

 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018020612/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

why are we looking at the long range NAM?

Because it's out there and many times we just want to see some really beefed up numbers. Why would we look at the ICON.

[Niko]

GFS is extremely bullish on the weekend major snowstorm. Snow for much of the area from Thurs nite through Sun. Dang! Get those snowblowers/shovels ready once again.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK has come south a bit with the initial wave of precip.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[bud2380]

This was last night's UK.  Very strong for Chicago. Similar to today's GFS and Canadian.  

 

[Iowawx]

When would the first wave begin in eastern Iowa on Thursday?

[james1976]

Gonna be interesting how offices handle headlines.

[Minny_Weather]

Gonna be interesting how offices handle headlines.

OAX will probably issue a watch tomorrow. They issue a watch when someone sneezes.

[Snowlover76]

I'm feeling this one

[hlcater]

OAX will probably issue a watch tomorrow. They issue a watch when someone sneezes.

I don't know though. Duration may only warrant an advisory.

[Minny_Weather]

I don't know though. Duration may only warrant an advisory.

If you're joking: They'll issue a Blizzard Warning for Northeast Nebraska and give us nothing.

 

If you're serious: They always issue a watch when a potentially big thing comes then gauge what to issue next after. Actually a smart move tbh.

[bud2380]

This is the UK through only 6am Friday, so not even the heaviest bands yet and still impressive qpf.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

[Tom]

12z GEFS about as share the wealth as we have seen all season.  Of note, lake enhancement being picked up along the WI/IL border...to see an ensemble spitting out .50-.75 qpf this far out is incredibly juiced, esp the .75-1.00" qpf near the lake.

 

 

[NH4NU]

With this pattern and current indications, I am feeling oddly confident with 6”+ for eastern Neb this weekend.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust.  Remember, this includes the midweek snow as well.

 

[bud2380]

12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust.

 

UK_12zFeb06.png

yes please.  

[Money]

IA/IL/NE in a great spot

[jaster220]

GFS is extremely bullish on the weekend major snowstorm. Snow for much of the area from Thurs nite through Sun. Dang! Get those snowblowers/shovels ready once again.

 

Euro and GEM even better for SWMI

 

Comparison:

 

GFS top, Euro btm

 

 

GEM

 

[Niko]

Euro and GEM even better for SWMI

 

Comparison:

 

GFS top, Euro btm

 

20180206 12z GFS n Euro thru weekend.png

 

GEM

 

20180206 12z GEM thru weekend.png

Take your pick . Gotta like the Euro though....crushes the area.

[gosaints]

Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right?

[Sciascia]

Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right?

The Nero Storm.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is still aimed farther north with the first significant wave.... from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois.  N IL gets through S MI gets nailed.

 

I hope this can sink south to where the other models are

 

.

[GDR]

Euro needs to play catch up

[Snowlover76]

What's the euro showing here

[hlcater]

Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much,

[Hawkeye]

Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much,

 

I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks.  The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

[Niko]

I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks.  The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

euro_12zFeb06.png

Assuming the phase occurs. If it does, then, it will snow hard. Map makes sense for a phase to be taking place.

[Sciascia]

I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

euro_12zFeb06.png

What kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher?

[Madtown]

John Dee talking 8+ for the first wave Thurs/Thurs night!

[Hawkeye]

What kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher?

 

I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is still meh. Further North too. What an a** that model has been to us.