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February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Sciascia Explorer

Sciascia

Posted
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I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again.

We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Sciascia
Sciascia

18z NAM, I know. But just for the sake of maps...   http://i63.tinypic.com/2z3qwz6.gif   LOT also updated their snow map through 6pm Friday. Thinking 8-12 for Chicago & most of N IL.  

Jaycee
Jaycee

Here, I'm going to try:       I will bet the sleep of several fortnights upon thee of the most east longitudes of this forum that a miniscule, yet triumphant storm will reign its might and fury upon t

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

It is snowing so heavily right now that I can now barely see the lights 1/8th mile away..

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
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Ratios statistically have a hard time panning out. However, ratios have been good to us for all but one event this year, and even then they were only down 2-3:1.

Change the years in your signature. It says 2016-17 still.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Accu-weather has my area from Thurs evening to Fri evening for 8-12inches. Sweet! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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BrianJK Enthusiast

BrianJK

Posted
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We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend.

 

Yep - that D**n pixie dust doesn't stack up well

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
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What time would this snow begin on Thursday in Cedar Rapids?

 

Current model runs are showing late afternoon Thursday, wherever the band is aimed.  The euro is north, so the band doesn't sag down into CR until before sunrise Friday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I just looked at the 12z Euro's wind profiles and they have an easterly flow for 30-36 hours into SE WI/NE IL.  About as perfect as it can get on a model run.  However, 850's oscillate from the start time roughly -8C and cool towards -12C, then warm again up to -5C, of which, they cool back down past -10C.  With that being said, thermals won't be the most ideal but I've seen this type of set up once before in my lifetime and given the cold ground temps, relatively warm and ice free Lake Michigan, this set up should be favorable for Lehs. 

 

Woah, just took a glance at the 12z EPS/Control and this is about as locked and loaded for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI as one can ask for.  Chitown, this is probably going to mirror something close to the Dec 31st - Jan 2nd, 2014 system.  Near perfect pivot of both waves of energy are looking more probable at the moment.

 

It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second!  #Mindblown

 

 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
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One thing of note regarding the Euro.  We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday.  Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids.  The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids.  The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

what's the ratios on those maps?

 

10:1 

 

Euro's the new NAM this winter  :lol:

 

Iiuc, this would be Kuchera or some similar algorithm:

 

20180206 12z Euro 120 hr Snow Kuchera.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Just need like a 30 mile shift north

 

Verbatim, I can tolerate a 60 mile shift N or S. This feels a lot like Feb 2015

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
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Tom said: "It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second!  #Mindblown"

 

Opens the door for GRR to issue 3 days worth of WWA's (awwta cover it, lol)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Flashbacks of 13-14' are coming back.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

One thing of note regarding the Euro.  We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday.  Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids.  The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids.  The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids.

 

18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Prolly ends up that the Euro is again just a bit far north (if the NAM is south already), thus an IN Toll Rd special appears to be on tap. Surprised how low-key IWX's afd was about this period.. :huh:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BrianJK Enthusiast

BrianJK

Posted
Posted

18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

All models are juiced for this wave.

 

ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board.  Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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This is all our NWS office says about the upcoming snowfall Thursday night through Saturday. What did that take 20 seconds to write up?

 

An h85 baroclinic thermal boundary sets up Thursday night between
mild air to the south and much colder air to the north. Look for
periods of light accumulating snow from Thursday night through
Friday with the broadening trough aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

Periods of light snow continue into Saturday night. Gradual
warming occurs Sunday and even more so Monday as milder westerly
flow nudges out the Arctic airmass.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

ICON is really juiced on the 2nd wave for Nebraska through 81 hours.

 

Both the 18z NAM and ICON have shifted south from the 12z runs.

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_40.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
Posted

This is all our NWS office says about the upcoming snowfall Thursday night through Saturday. What did that take 20 seconds to write up?

 

An h85 baroclinic thermal boundary sets up Thursday night between

mild air to the south and much colder air to the north. Look for

periods of light accumulating snow from Thursday night through

Friday with the broadening trough aloft.

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

 

Periods of light snow continue into Saturday night. Gradual

warming occurs Sunday and even more so Monday as milder westerly

flow nudges out the Arctic airmass.

You didn't even post the name of who did that and I can already tell.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Posted

ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board.  Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.

Geez, what the heck are ya smokin. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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