February 9th - 11th - Plains "Chasing The Weenie Band" Thread

[Jaycee]

This is sort of a joke, but maybe it's best that us users out here start taking matters into our own hands with this storm. There is going to be a wee knee band somewhere around here, and were at the point where everyone in Chicago and Michigan are going to focus on themselves with this-- pretty sure they could care less about a 5" band 600 miles west while they are tracking a potent 17" storm in their area; I think we've annoyed them enough with our inevitable complaints that we all have from this storm and the past decade anyways.

 

That said, we can track our own  "storm" here, smash some brews, complain about whatever, make fun of snowlover76, it doesn't matter, cuz this is our thread boys. Let's do this.

[jaster220]

This is sort of a joke, but maybe it's best that us users out here start taking matters into our own hands with this storm. There is going to be a wee knee band somewhere around here, and were at the point where everyone in Chicago and Michigan are going to focus on themselves with this-- pretty sure they could care less about a 5" band 600 miles west while they are tracking a potent 17" storm in their area; I think we've annoyed them enough with our inevitable complaints that we all have from this storm and the past decade anyways.

 

That said, we can track our own  "storm" here, smash some brews, complain about whatever, make fun of snowlover76, it doesn't matter, cuz this is our thread boys. Let's do this.

 

Can never get too much snow over here in da Mitt, so don't mind if I follow along for fun  . After I came in from shoveling the past two day's snow, I was staring out the window trying to imagine how it could look come Sunday evening if all goes just right 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Winter cancel? Winter cancel.

[hlcater]

Wee knee band lol. Glad autocorrect sorted that out for you. I love it

[Jaycee]

Wee knee band lol. Glad autocorrect sorted that out for you. I love it

 

Lol I did it on purpose actually it seems more fitting.

[jaster220]

Lol I did it on purpose actually it seems more fitting.

 

That's how I took it knowing the source. LOLz - nice work 

[Jaycee]

That's how I took it knowing the source. LOLz - nice work 

 

Lol I knew you would pick up on it you know me too well man!

[jaster220]

Lol I knew you would pick up on it you know me too well man!

 

Need to have Tom "Pin" this btw 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

GFS isn't showing any chances of severe weather here over the next 384 hours.

[Jaycee]

GFS isn't showing any chances of severe weather here over the next 384 hours.

Which sucks cuz I’d love me some severe wx rn

[snowstorm83]

18z GFS looks a bit less anemic, wide enough for both OMA and LNK to get in on the action. Also idk if this thread is serious or if this post is supposed to go in the Chicago/Michigan one.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

18z GFS looks a bit less anemic, wide enough for both OMA and LNK to get in on the action. Also idk if this thread is serious or if this post is supposed to go in the Chicago/Michigan one.

I'm using it as a sh*tposting thread.

[Tom]

HRRR looks pretty decent across NE through today...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looked outside and I have light snow falling and windy conditions but the radar shows nothing. Hope to get a few inches in the next couple of days, but thinking I am missed to the north and the wave tomorrow grazes me. Need that wave tomorrow to move north just a little more. Temperature at 13, winds gusting to 25 mph makes the wind chill -6.

[GDR]

Looks like anywhere south of 30 in Iowa is looking good

[CentralNebWeather]

I wasn't supposed to get anything until later today or tonight, but have had light snow for over 2 hours with nothing showing up on radar, strange.  Roads are partly covered with blowing snow.  I think these next couple of days will be radar watching as the bands that show up are razor thin and seem to be in different spots on different models.  There may be fluctuations in amounts from one side of a county to the other side in this setup.

[CentralNebWeather]

RGEM would be great for many, but seems way to high for amounts compared to other models so far, unless it is on to something at the last minute.  GFS, CMC, and Euro coming out so will see if amounts have increased from those.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS says RGEM "what are your smoking"?  Not even close to amounts of the RGEM, especially for Omaha.  I am basically missed to the North and South by the GFS.  Just keep watching radars to see where the heavier bands set up in the next 36 hours or so.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

3km NAM looks pretty good for Lincoln...

[IMoveALot_Weather]

HRRR drops 5" on me overnight. That'd be legendary for this kinda thing.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z CMC also shows much more snow in Nebraska than the other models.  I get a good hit and Omaha gets slammed. We'll see.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

My adventures have taken me to Yutan, NE today. Light snow right now but decent sized flakes. I may have to cut my day short with the band that's coming towards here. My POS car can hardly handle an inch of snow so I'd rather not get stranded in Yutan.

[Jaycee]

My adventures have taken me to Yutan, NE today. Light snow right now but decent sized flakes. I may have to cut my day short with the band that's coming towards here. My POS car can hardly handle an inch of snow so I'd rather not get stranded in Yutan.

Yeah they might be in a good spot there too i think. Though HRRR looks glorious for a Lincoln ravaging.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I'd be more excited by what HRRR is showing if HRRR had a better track record this season.

[hlcater]

Nailed last night.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Yeah it's showing WSW level snow for here tonight. Perhaps the biggest storm total since 2011-2012 when we got 11.1".

[Jaycee]

Yeah it's showing WSW level snow for here tonight. Perhaps the biggest storm total since 2011-2012 when we got 11.1".

 

HRRR is the best this close in. The 3k NAM is usually second. Honestly though, the RGEM nailed the last storm around here, and it absolutely dumps on us tonight. It’ll be interesting to see what happens, the HRRR has had a 7” snow band over LNK for 4 runs now.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Just made an emergency firewood run. I feel like I may be pulling an all nighter tonight. I'll have to make an emergency snack run later I think.

[Jaycee]

Just made an emergency firewood run. I feel like I may be pulling an all nighter tonight. I'll have to make an emergency snack run later I think.

Got my pre workout ready. Gunna track the shyt outta this thing. Not gunna miss a D**n second if the models are right.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

It's not the NORTH American Mesoscale for nothing. The word "North" is even in the name.

[jcwxguy]

Grid says 2-4 now

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Grid says 2-4 now

It's been 2-4 since this morning. I think they'll ignore 12km NAM and up those amounts.

[jcwxguy]

I would go with 2-5, iso 6"

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I would go with 2-5, iso 6"

If I were NWS, I'd do 3-6" so that I could issue a WSW.

[Money]

If I were NWS, I'd do 3-6" so that I could issue a WSW.

Why do you want a WSW so bad lol

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Why do you want a WSW so bad lol

We all know that trolling us arouses you, you don't need to tell us.

 

OAX is going with a WWA for 2-4". Think they're giving the conservative models too much credit.

[Snowlover76]

money hates it when Nebraska gets snow 

[Jaycee]

We all know that trolling us arouses you, you don't need to tell us.

 

OAX is going with a WWA for 2-4". Think they're giving the conservative models too much credit.

 

RAP, HRRR, and RGEM all show 6+, and have all day. 3k NAM is bouncing back and forth, and yet they're siding with it, despite it sucking within 12 hrs. They're going to fall flat on their face somewhere in this area. I hope it's us, this could be a hidden gem.

[Money]

money hates it when Nebraska gets snow

It doesn’t snow in NE tho

[IMoveALot_Weather]

GFS is way less efficient with the snow. Not sure what it does but it's less impressed with the weenie band (it still shows a weenie band).

 

OAX thinks that the snow will accumulate pretty efficiently. Cuz it will. Nothing is stopping it besides maybe dry air.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Radar's looking not half bad. Weenie band may even be South of HRRR. That'd be good considering I'm right on the line right now as HRRR would show it

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lincoln better not steal the show and get that 6 inches lol.

[Snowlover76]

Lincoln better not steal the show and get that 6 inches lol.

oh cmon, lots of women are happy with less than 6". its no big deal 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

oh cmon, lots of women are happy with less than 6". its no big deal 

LOL

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Flurries from the first (small) band have started here. For flurries, these are some pretty fat flakes. Good sign, means we won't have to worry about dry air. Let this event roll.

[Jaycee]

Flurries from the first (small) band have started here. For flurries, these are some pretty fat flakes. Good sign, means we won't have to worry about dry air. Let this event roll.

 

HRRR totals continue to increase too. went from 6.1 to 7.5" across Lancaster. RGEM looks similar too. I think this will catch a lot off guard.

[hlcater]

Flurries from the first (small) band have started here. For flurries, these are some pretty fat flakes. Good sign, means we won't have to worry about dry air. Let this event roll

HRRR has an exceptionally deep DGZ, but the same model also isn't detecting the ongoing precip over NE right now very well. 

 

That DGZ is so deep it looks weird.

 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2018020921_002_40.76--96.7.png

[Snowlover76]

HRRR totals continue to increase too. went from 6.1 to 7.5" across Lancaster. RGEM looks similar too. I think this will catch a lot off guard.

you got a map bud? 

[Jaycee]

you got a map bud? 

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Weenie band is looking North on both radar and the latest HRRR run. ******* sucks for me cuz I'm in Southeast Lincoln.