The Presidents Day Storm

[Tom]

A very complex and multi faceted system will develop across the central Plains late on Sunday creating an extreme temp gradient from CO east into the GL's region.  This gradient pattern coupled with GOM moisture will feed into this system creating a potpourri of precip from snow, heavy rain, ice potential and possible thunderstorms.  Let's discuss....

 

00z Euro took a step towards the GFS and is targeting the MSP region up through N WI/U.P with snow.

 

 

00z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021500/150/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021506/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings mentions a possible significant freezing drizzle threat Sunday Night-Monday Morning but holding off on headlines yet.  Give us dry and windy instead of that stuff.  Yuk.  

[St Paul Storm]

12z runs still looking good here. Although there has been a northern trend over the last day. We’ll see if that continues.

[hlcater]

I'm definitely getting a severe wx vibe from this system. Not in my area, but the OV, MO and OK may have some stuff to look out for. The combo of CAPE and hodograph curvature seems best over eastern OK, but I could see a squall line, non zero QLCS tornado threat further NE. OK is definitely an unusual spot to have 60s dews this time of year, but as of right now, looks to be the best spot for any supercell activity.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro for MN

[Madtown]

She's a beaut Clark!

[jaster220]

18z NAM still likes us for some SN Sunday?

 

[Tabitha]

She's a beaut Clark!

 

OK Eddie...

 

Though I think they lived in Kansas...

 

___________________

 

Eddie: You know Clark; the bank's been after me like flies on a rib roast...

 

Eddie's wife: Now Eddie; Clark and Ellen don't want to hear about our problems..

 

Clark: No, no...its very interesting...

 

Aunt Edna: Why don't you just ask him for the money Eddie...sure as hell can't take a hint

 

Eddie: Well Clark...could you maybe spare a little bit?

 

Clark: Sure Eddie...how much you need?

 

Eddie: About $52,000.

 

[St Paul Storm]

18z GFS increased snow totals a bit but overall no major changes. Interesting how MPX is not very excited. They mention several rounds of light snow but no major storm.

[Stormgeek]

For what it is worth, the 18z GFS is a MN special. Snow nearly border to border with 6+ from north of Duluth to down by Rochester.

Edit: Looks like St. Paul Storm beat me to this!

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.

Id rather have rain too. Anything is better then a dry slot.

[centralweather44]

Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.

Haven’t had a chance to look at maps or pull them up. What are the chances of the freezing rain. Significant?

[Minny_Weather]

Haven’t had a chance to look at maps or pull them up. What are the chances of the freezing rain. Significant?

Enough to cause a nuisance but we'll get the dry slot before it becomes historic or anything. Like below 0.1".

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NAM looks a little more robust with the frozen precip

 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM looks a little more robust with the frozen precip

 

NAM has had a moist bias all Winter so I'm not surprised.

[gosaints]

NAM has had a moist bias all Winter so I'm not surprised.

You mean since it's inception.

[St Paul Storm]

Well this quickly turned into a low-end event. As this trends father north it’s keeping the warmer air father north as well. Looks like freezing rain is a decent bet here followed by a few inches of snow.

[Tom]

Well this quickly turned into a low-end event. As this trends father north it’s keeping the warmer air father north as well. Looks like freezing rain is a decent bet here followed by a few inches of snow.

00z EPS not to crazy on the snowfall amounts...looks like a 3" mean for MSP...more the farther N/NE you go...

 

On the flip side, I sure hope the Euro is wrong with the placement of the frontal boundary bc its pumping out 2-4" rains down here...to top it off, it has some light snow on the tail end...#bipolarwx

[Snowshoe]

Been pretty consistent painting a narrow stripe of frz rain.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021606/108/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[St Paul Storm]

00z EPS not to crazy on the snowfall amounts...looks like a 3" mean for MSP...more the farther N/NE you go...

 

On the flip side, I sure hope the Euro is wrong with the placement of the frontal boundary bc its pumping out 2-4" rains down here...to top it off, it has some light snow on the tail end...#bipolarwx

Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.

[NEJeremy]

She's a beaut Clark!

Cousin Eddy?

[Snowshoe]

Melted quick.

 

Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mkx/hyd/SnowDpt_wi.png

[Stacsh]

Near 50 degree temperature difference in Iowa Monday on GFS.  

[Tom]

Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.

1-2” at best over here. All crust now with the colder temps. If those rainfall totals pan out local rivers are gonna flood.

[St Paul Storm]

12z models bouncing all over the place. Trying to figure out the thermal profiles is going to take up until the start of the event most likely. GEM (7-9”) brings the heavier snow back down to MSP while the GFS is stepping down the snow totals (4-5”). Either way, some wintry weather coming back. I’ll take it.

[Tabitha]

12z models bouncing all over the place. Trying to figure out the thermal profiles is going to take up until the start of the event most likely. GEM (7-9”) brings the heavier snow back down to MSP while the GFS is stepping down the snow totals (4-5”). Either way, some wintry weather coming back. I’ll take it.

 

What a mess the 12z Suite was!

 

The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.

 

Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.

[St Paul Storm]

What a mess the 12z Suite was!

 

The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.

 

Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.

You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

[Tabitha]

You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

12z EC has about 0.8 LE...from Sunday through Tuesday...long duration event.

 

Since the ratios are always good here...that could be a lot of snow.

 

By Saturday, the models should sort of form a better consensus.

 

Five years ago, the Euro was a lock in that 48 -72 hour range; then they "upgraded it"...which really seems quite the opposite...and it has had its problems...still better than any of the others; but not quite as good as it once was...or so it seems to my subjective eye.

 

If it ain't broke; don't fix it!

[Tabitha]

You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

 

Duluth with just 11.3" of snow since January 1st (2.2" for February)

 

International Falls with just 10.5" of snow since January 1st (1.2" for February)

[St Paul Storm]

Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

[Tabitha]

Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

 

I was just going to note that..at least 50 - 75 mile shift south...as it gets a drop closer to its range.

 

Close to useless outside of 48 hours.

[Tabitha]

Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

 

 

It would be kind of odd for Minneapolis to be "too far south" for an average February snowstorm; would it not?

 

They are at 45 N...or a latitude about 220 miles north of Chicago's.

 

You know your area better than I do...

[St Paul Storm]

It would be kind of odd for Minneapolis to be "too far south" for an average February snowstorm; would it not?

 

You know your area better than I do...

Very rare. In fact it’s almost a lock that Minneapolis is way too far north to get a good snowstorm in mid-February. We don’t get much snow here in Feb. We typically get rocked in March as the ‘zone’ swings back to the north.

[Tabitha]

What a mess the 12z Suite was!

 

The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.

 

Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.

 

 

Lol at the 18z ICON / German...the system half dies after leaving South Dakota.

[St Paul Storm]

Contrast the 18z ICON with the GFS which now shows +8” totals even south of the TC metro. So there’s that.

[Tabitha]

Contrast the 18z ICON with the GFS which now shows +8” totals even south of the TC metro. So there’s that.

 

 

The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.

 

Nevertheless, I would still trust it over that "ICON"...lolz.

 

Sooo aptly named.

[Tabitha]

The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.

 

Nevertheless, I would still trust it over that "ICON"...lolz.

 

Sooo aptly named.

 

Better the Devil you know than the Devil you don't!

[Tabitha]

21z SREF's had a wide range of outcomes for down in the Rapid City...anywhere between 6 & 22 inches.

 

Actually that is way out east at the airport...which is at a lower elevation relative to the town and about 12 miles to the east of downtown.

[Tabitha]

You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

The 0z NAM was too far N&W for Duluth.

 

By 6z it will be in Churchill, Manitoba...

 

Then at 12z it will have a blizzard in St Louis...

 

I remember that song; "Meet Me in St Louis"

 

Catchy tune...