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The Presidents Day Storm


Tom

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I would say there was about 3.4" new snow here as of 5:35 PM.

 

Since it has been snowing for about 6 1/2 hours; the average rate is about 1/2 inch per hour.

 

Temp is now down to 9 F and it is quite chilly at twilight.

Fresh powda will always put a smile on a winter fans face...enjoy the storm! I can only imagine what the scene looks like. Snap some pics tomorrow.

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I would say there was about 3.4" new snow here as of 5:35 PM.

 

Since it has been snowing for about 6 1/2 hours; the average rate is about 1/2 inch per hour.

 

Temp is now down to 9 F and it is quite chilly at twilight.

 

4.1" new snow at 7:20 PM MDT

 

Temp 8 F.  Winds a bit lighter; averaging 10 to 15 mph.

 

Snow had slackened around 6 PM; then picked up before 7 PM...and looks to be diminishing again as I type.

 

One can always tell if weather is improving or deteriorating by looking to the north here; as the weather almost always comes in from the north.

 

If the ceiling and visibility are dropping when one looks north; it is a sure sign precipitation is inbound.

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4.1" new snow at 7:20 PM MDT

 

Temp 8 F.  Winds a bit lighter; averaging 10 to 15 mph.

 

Snow had slackened around 6 PM; then picked up before 7 PM...and looks to be diminishing again as I type.

 

One can always tell if weather is improving or deteriorating by looking to the north here; as the weather almost always comes in from the north.

 

If the ceiling and visibility are dropping when one looks north; it is a sure sign precipitation is inbound.

 

One mile in light snow at 8:30 MST.

 

Temp 8 F.

 

4.3" new snow on the day.

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it's terrible. You don't want to experience one, trust me on that. E IA had a really bad one in like 2009, but hasnt had much in the way of FZR since. I'd very much like to keep it that way.

You might be thinking of Feb 2007?? That was the last and worst one i can think of. Widespread 1-2 inches and power out for a week for a lot of people.
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5.0" new @ 10:40 PM MDT.

 

Looks like just flurries at the moment.

 

Temp 6 F.

 

5.1" @ Midnight MST

 

13.1" on the Month

 

28.6" on the Season

 

Models have been all over the place; but it looks like snow (some moderate, some light) should continue until late in the day Monday...or even into very early Tuesday.

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO reported 5.7" new snow @ Midnight on just 0.17 LE...for a 33:1 ratio.

 

Again; ratios & cold enough temps are seldom the problem...

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Ice is back in the forecast for the TC metro. They have 0.1” in the grids but 0.1-0.25” in the graphics. 2-4” of snow in addition to the ice. Latest HRRR shows about 4” of snow. Radar starting to fill in to the west.

Good luck on the snow bud!   I think your in a good position to finish off this month really strong in the snow dept....why not???  #buildtheglacier

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Thankfully we've remained mostly dry. Barely any ice accumulation here on my balcony. Temps getting to where they are now already is shocking. Thankfully we didn't get any more rain or thing would be a mess with flash freezing. Now I don't feel nervous about driving to downtown.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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5.1" @ Midnight MST

 

13.1" on the Month

 

28.6" on the Season

 

Models have been all over the place; but it looks like snow (some moderate, some light) should continue until late in the day Monday...or even into very early Tuesday.

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO reported 5.7" new snow @ Midnight on just 0.17 LE...for a 33:1 ratio.

 

Again; ratios & cold enough temps are seldom the problem...

 

Very little additional snowfall since midnight; I was going to make a post right around then commenting on how the loss of daytime heating causes everything to fall apart around here...but I was reluctant; for fear of jinxing things.

 

No worries; the radar showed that it fell apart almost Everywhere overnight...just like I sensed it might.  In fact it was party cloudy here briefly; only an hour ago.

 

With the return of the heating of the day...and a second wave...it should start to snow again pretty soon...I hope.

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The models and the radar are not too far from useless around here.

 

Completely different series of forecasting problems than in a place where the land is more or less flat.

 

Yesterday, the HRRR had it dry here from 11 AM until 5 PM...and it snowed hard the entire time.  Not just one run of the HRRR...several runs in a row.

 

Then it had it snowy here overnight...and nary a flake fell.

 

The radar does not move like in normal areas...it just sits in one place.  It also moves in the most unusual and unexpected directions.

 

Also; it can look great over the entire area...and then in 5 minutes; the whole area goes partly cloudy.  The reverse is also true.

 

You have to rely on the basics; daytime heating...better chance of snow.  Night time precip minimum...even in winter.

 

You also must rely on climatology.

 

The heaviest snow always seems to fall here between 10 AM and 4 PM....no matter what the weather map looks like.

 

Much, much trickier area to forecast for then back East...where things move normally.

 

The EC seems to have the best handle on things around here; but even it has its problems.

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You have to rely on the basics; daytime heating...better chance of snow.  Night time precip minimum...even in winter.

 

The heaviest snow always seems to fall here between 10 AM and 4 PM....no matter what the weather map looks like.

 

 

Right on cue; its starting to pour snow again with the light taking hold...after being practically dry for 6 hours.

 

Life; it holds no challenges...lol.

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temps definitely fell quicker than expected here. We were down near freezing already at around midnight, when yesterday's forecast discussion said it would be between 4-7am. freezing rain/drizzle started by 2-3am. not sure on exact amounts, but there was enough to see icicles hanging from tree branches and signs. the side roads were pretty bad on my way to work, but main roads were okay.

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GFS showing almost no rain after 12pm today from roughly Iowa City to DBQ to the Northwest in eastern Iowa.  Heaviest bands are from the Quad Cities and to the east.  Particularly heavy through central IL. 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021912/054/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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A line of thunderstorms just moved through my area.  Very heavy rain led to a quick 0.51".  The ground is frozen, so lakes quickly formed in the yards.  For the first time in years, there was a river of water flowing through my backyard.  I love heavy rain, so I'd typically root for it to keep coming down, but in this case it's a good thing it stopped when it did.

 

As Bud posted a bit ago, the GFS says this is all the rain we'll get.  However, all other models are still showing more light rain tonight/Tuesday.  In general, all models have gradually dried us out, but since we already have a half inch, everything else is pretty much a bonus.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Canadian still clinging to a massive ice storm for Eastern Iowa.  Seems to be the coldest model.  I'm not too worried about that coming to fruition.  

 

I'm not worried about ice, here.  The Canadian has a cold bias.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5.1" @ Midnight MST

 

13.1" on the Month

 

28.6" on the Season

 

Models have been all over the place; but it looks like snow (some moderate, some light) should continue until late in the day Monday...or even into very early Tuesday.

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO reported 5.7" new snow @ Midnight on just 0.17 LE...for a 33:1 ratio.

 

Again; ratios & cold enough temps are seldom the problem...

 

At 11 AM MST we had 5.5" new snow here.

 

Winds are light and snow growth is (as usual) non-existent.

 

This area is excellent for heavy white drizzle / mist.

 

Temp is 9 F but w/o wind it feels like Spring outside (literally / no sarcasm).

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At 11 AM MST we had 5.5" new snow here.

 

Winds are light and snow growth is (as usual) non-existent.

 

This area is excellent for heavy white drizzle / mist.

 

Temp is 9 F but w/o wind it feels like Spring outside (literally / no sarcasm).

 

Now why is this?

 

Obviously it is related to the topography...but most importantly; to what seems to the constant inversion that hangs over the area.

 

For good snow growth, one needs rising air...and for good lift one needs a column where the temperature decreases with altitude. 

 

Here; so very frequently, the cold air gets trapped in the low elevations while warm air rides over it.  This is called an inversion; and it places a cap on the atmosphere...making convection (rising air) impossible...and shutting down the precipitation process.

 

At least; that's my best guess...

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