2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

[Tom]

If things go as they're supposed to, that cold will get stuck over Canada soon enough.

Nature doing, what nature does...it's going to be a fascinating pattern across N.A. if things line up the way I have dreamed "once upon a time" heading into the cold season...haha!  A day like today, cloudy, cool and breezy, makes you think how fast summers are around here and there isn't much time left if you consider how quickly it may end this year.  Seriously, we have been blessed with extended summers for the past 3 years and I don't think this Sept will be all that warm.  Gotta enjoy life in the "present" moment and take the good with the bad.

[OKwx2k4]

Nature doing, what nature does...it's going to be a fascinating pattern across N.A. if things line up the way I have dreamed "once upon a time" heading into the cold season...haha! A day like today, cloudy, cool and breezy, makes you think how fast summers are around here and there isn't much time left if you consider how quickly it may end this year. Seriously, we have been blessed with extended summers for the past 3 years and I don't think this Sept will be all that warm. Gotta enjoy life in the "present" moment and take the good with the bad.

I could see how the long summers could be a blessing up there. They're a curse down here. I've got summer down pat after 30 years of this nonsense weather. Lol. I'm ready to try doing 30 years of real winter with short summers.

[OKwx2k4]

Ready to see summers and autumns go back to a more 70s and 80s theme around here.

[Andie]

Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

 

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.

[OKwx2k4]

Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

 

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.

Yuk. I'm sorry. It's been seriously hot down there lately.

[Minny_Weather]

Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

 

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.

Heading to Houston on Monday where I'll be for 2 days before flying to Florida. Looks like both days I'll have mid-70s dew points to look forward to. That's oppressive even by Houston standards. Makes the mid-60s DPs we've had seem like child's play.

[Tom]

Woah, the ECMWF seasonal suggesting a big trough across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation for the last month of met summer.  Will we rival last year's Aug temp pattern?  Something tells me it will end up being cooler, esp closer towards the GL's region.  

 

[OKwx2k4]

Woah, the ECMWF seasonal suggesting a big trough across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation for the last month of met summer. Will we rival last year's Aug temp pattern? Something tells me it will end up being cooler, esp closer towards the GL's region.

 

Yeah. I'd say if that verifies, it will be like September rather than August.

[Tom]

My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer.  As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the  farther south you go.  This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling.  IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer. As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the farther south you go. This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling. IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.

Noticed the new drought area popping up there by me. I can say after mowing this morning that I'm in fact back to abnormal dryness. Only takes about 2 weeks in mid-summer to get this bad. Subsurface moisture is still doing incredibly well here and the trees are under the least stress I in which have seen them in a decade at this point in the summer. September is a downhill run from here almost though.

[CentralNebWeather]

My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer. As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the farther south you go. This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling. IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.

Would have to do some research to find out the last time Nebraska was this drought free.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends for August...carve that trough out...sign me up!  Looks good to me and what will likely be a cooler end to summer.  FWIW, I'm hearing the latest Euro weeklies are drastically cooler.

[james1976]

A cooler than normal aug-sept would be nice for a change! I like the way things are looking for late summer. Ive had enough heat already lol.

[OKwx2k4]

Seeing lot of and enough model trends to give around a 70% chance that the hottest part of summer is over for many, if not most of us. Looking like one more brief hot spell possible around mid-August but overall, if you don't like "dog days", I think there's good news here. I think we're about to close them out in July instead of August. If even half or slightly less of the cooldown from the GFS is true, I may even close out with a normal summer after the blazing, humid, opening 45 days.

[Tom]

The JMA monthlies came out today and suggesting yet another month where a major trough is setting up shop across NE Canada where it has been rock steady since May.  It is also agreeing that the entire North American 500mb amplifies which creates a seasonal look across the eastern CONUS.  Fits the pattern and idea of a cooler finish to Summer.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201807.D1000_gl2.png

 

 

Precip chances look better than the CFSv2 but I'm going with drier the farther north in the sub forum you live at the moment...wetter west and south...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

[Tom]

All the signs in the modeling is lining up quite well as we move through the 2nd half of summer.  I'm becoming quite convinced that August will end up being a cool month in general as we close out met Summer.  The mid month daily run from the CFSv2 is intriguing in several ways...1) Greenland Block?  2) My thoughts of dryness near the GL's/MW are certainly trending that way  3) Major summer trough across SE Canada/GL's  4) NW NAMER ridge (long standing idea)  5)  SST's in the N PAC and equatorial PAC

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180716.201808.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180716.201808.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180716.201808.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180716.201808.gif

[james1976]

If that trough becomes reality i hope it is far enough west for my region!

[OKwx2k4]

Getting closer....

[Tom]

CPC's outlook for August...IMO, to warm around the GL's/MW region...you think the troughs this month are unusual???  Wait till August my friends!

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The CanSIPS model has come out and suggests a relatively warm/hot "look" to start off summer in June...

 

 

 

As we head into the "heart" of summer, things begin to change and the idea of a cooler mid/late summer is showing some credibility if you are to agree with this model.  All things considered, this fits my idea quite well actually.  I think we are going to see some unusual amplified patterns in July across North America.  This 500mb pattern potentially suggests cut-off systems skirting the GL's region mid summer.  Remember when I mentioned we should see the "cold" part of the LRC cycle through in and around the 4th of July holiday???  Something tells me there will be an interesting scenario playing out near the GL's/MW region.  We'll see.

 

July...

 

 

Aug...

 

 

We definitely are enduring an unusual cut-off trough spinning near the GL's, but we did NOT see the colder side of the LRC in early July.  With that being said, however, I've been waiting for one piece of this year's cyclical pattern to show up in the summer which would solidify a vision I had long ago.  That would be a lobe or piece of the Polar Vortex.  While not that unusual to see it spin down into the lower 48 during the cold season, it is highly unusual in the summer.  We saw it in 2014...it made headlines, will the July '18 version make headlines???

 

https://mashable.com/2014/07/10/polar-vortex-redux-redux-record-cold-july-weather-on-the-way/

 

 

Both the GFS/EURO have a lobe of the Polar Vortex just barely skirting the GL's to close out July.  I saw similarities that this summer had when comparing it to the summer of '14.  We may be seeing a glimpse of it come into fruition late month.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Remember the 2009 version?

 

[Tom]

Remember the 2009 version?

 

reanal_2009072200.gif

I wasn’t paying attn to models back then as much as I do now. Nonetheless, that would be a comparable analog since the following season had a mod Niño.

[OKwx2k4]

I wasn’t paying attn to models back then as much as I do now. Nonetheless, that would be a comparable analog since the following season had a mod Niño.

So is this a new wave in the pattern or old?

[Tom]

So is this a new wave in the pattern or old?

Old wave...IMO, the SST’s in the NE PAC are enhancing the amplification this cycle and prob one more time in Sept. By end of Sept, we already start seeing the new pattern in the far northern latitudes.

[OKwx2k4]

Old wave...IMO, the SST’s in the NE PAC are enhancing the amplification this cycle and prob one more time in Sept. By end of Sept, we already start seeing the new pattern in the far northern latitudes.

In hindsight, I see a lot of connections to the old pattern. You're right.

[OKwx2k4]

Summer cancel? If not cancelled, it's sure taking a shot to the face pretty early this year. Next 10 days per EPS and GFS is absolutely awesome for this heat hater.

[Tom]

Summer cancel? If not cancelled, it's sure taking a shot to the face pretty early this year. Next 10 days per EPS and GFS is absolutely awesome for this heat hater.

In your area, at least for a bit, enjoy the reprieve from the heat amigo.  I think your still going to see some heat before met Autumn.  That ridge down south has been pretty feisty this year.  It's going to take a lot for it to really beat down...it will eventually.

[OKwx2k4]

In your area, at least for a bit, enjoy the reprieve from the heat amigo. I think your still going to see some heat before met Autumn. That ridge down south has been pretty feisty this year. It's going to take a lot for it to really beat down...it will eventually.

Yeah. I can hope, but I think you're right. May see it rear it's ugly head the last week to 10 days of August before it gets obliterated for good or stands upright over the west coast.

[Niko]

So far, its been a dry, hot summa! We can use some H2O.

[Stacsh]

August might end up more above normal than July forecast fail

[OKwx2k4]

August might end up more above normal than July forecast fail

Up north, yes. Down here I'm likely going to be below average when all is said and done, or at least I think.

[Niko]

This is actually turning out to be a fairly nice Summer. Although, I wouldn't mind a few severe storms from time to time.

[jaster220]

This is actually turning out to be a fairly nice Summer. Although, I wouldn't mind a few severe storms from time to time.

 

There was some severe SE of Jackson just this past Friday. That should cover it for the summer around here, LOL

[Niko]

There was some severe SE of Jackson just this past Friday. That should cover it for the summer around here, LOL

 

Where are the good ol days where we would get a dark sky outta nowhere and all hell would break loose from loud thunder, vivid lightning, torrential downpours, trees down from damaging winds, flooding all ova the place, and need I go on, you get the picture. Afterwards, the sun would come out and call it a day.

[Tom]

That's a wrap.  Chicago ended up close to 3F above normal temp wise.

 

 

[Niko]

This Summer was actually a very decent one. Great looking sunny days w warm to hot days. No gloomy days at all. Just wish we had more t'stm activity from time to time.