Tom Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 I feel pretty confident that a formidable storm is going to develop mid next week as it also fits the pattern we've been discussing for some time now. Every single global model is now showing it and it appears almost likely that many of us on here around the I-80 corridor on south with see a pretty decent winter storm. Let's discuss... 0z GEFS... 0z EPS... 0z GEPS...the farthest south among the models... I know who's rooting for the good Ol' Canadian! Oh Canada... @Clinton @sumweatherdude KC peeps and I would say the Chicago area is riding the fine line with this one. I'm not all in on this just yet for MBY...needless to say, this should be a fun storm to track. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 My weather app has 1” Tuesday night. 3-5” Wednesday, and 1-3” Wednesday night. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Strength and position of the high pressure north of the lakes will be key. CMC has a slightly stronger HP and thus a better push of cold air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 6z Euro Control came in weaker, faster, and further south. Good hit for mby, will be interesting to see if the 12z follows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 NWS Hastings morning disco: Tuesday night - Wednesday night (Accumulating Snow Possible)... This remains the most interesting period to watch for a potentially more impactful storm system with the 00Z GFS, GEM, and ECMWF all trending northward with the next upper low increasing our chances for a more widespread accumulating snowfall event. All three of these deterministic model runs would result in an accumulating snowfall event for much of our forecast area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z NWS Blend through Thursday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Hello from Cozumel, Mexico - the wife and I are returning back to Omaha today and I was hoping to be able to ease back with some decent, not frigid weather which looks to be the case… Excited that we might get some actual snowfall (2+ inches) this upcoming week - unless our KC peeps somehow manage to reel this one in. We got hit with a textbook “Norte” (cold front in Mexico) here yesterday with strong north winds that dropped the temps into the upper 60’s (gusting to 45-50 mph at times), heavy surf, and some light rain… otherwise it has been 82-85 and sunny all week long - Isla Cozumel is amazing! Fingers crossed however my optimism remains low (can we turn things around with 2+ months to go?). 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Hello from Cozumel, Mexico - the wife and I are returning back to Omaha today and I was hoping to be able to ease back with some decent, not frigid weather which looks to be the case… Excited that we might get some actual snowfall this upcoming week - unless our KC peeps real this one in. We got hit with a textbook “Norte” (cold front in Mexico) here yesterday with strong north winds that dropped the temps into the upper 60’s (gusting to 45-50 mph at times), heavy surf, and some light rain… otherwise it has been 82-85 and sunny all week long - Isla Cozumel is amazing! Fingers crossed however my optimism remains low (can we turn things around with 2+ months to go?). Awesome. We are taking a cruise out of Galveston in May, right after school is out. Stops at Mahogany Bay Honduras, Belize, and Cozumel. Been to Cozumel once before and loved it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z ICON is very similar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 This run of the GFS is suspect because it suddenly added an upper low over the arrowhead of Minnesota, which may be suppressing the storm farther south. This upper low was not there on previous runs and it's not there on other models. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 UK is north 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Been a pathetic year in snow removal business, 2 straight years. Maybe it will turn around? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z GGEM...about as close as you can get to an I-80 special... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 The 12z Euro is real weak because the upper energy is all strung out... very different from the well-consolidated energy on previous runs. It eventually consolidates and closes off, but the delay leads to much lighter snow totals from Iowa southwestward. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 59 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GGEM...about as close as you can get to an I-80 special... Nowhere close to I80 here. You should be less generalized. Sure is anice sunny day here. This looks to screw mby like every storm, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Been a pathetic year in snow removal business, 2 straight years. Maybe it will turn around? No turnaround here, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 18z NBM 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z EPS...colder and a touch south around the Lower Lakes.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z GGEM.. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 OK, still a long ways to go, but I would love to see the models keep coming in stronger. Seems like for the past couple years as we get closer and closer to the event the models go the other way. Here’s to hoping we see a more widespread weather system for all! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Too early to be confident in details, but definitely have some concerns about precip type issues around here. There is more antecedent cold air for this compared to the storm that just passed (which is not saying much), so should at least be able to maintain a snow band all the way across the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: Mid-week (Wednesday) storm system has the early potential to produce accumulating snowfall across most of the forecast area and possibly impact travel and local events. Late Tuesday night, Wednesday and early Thursday timeframe for the possibility of a fairly significant winter storm across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The current area of most concern is roughly the between I-80 and I-70. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 18z gfs 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Shaping up to be a huge missed opportunity around here. Figures. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 18z icon fwiw 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z Euro Control and Mean looks good for Nebraska and Iowa members. @OttumwaSnomow @bud2380 @Hawkeye going over the 6in Mean 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Crikey! 60-70’s generally for next week. Wednesday will bring a 40% chance of rain. Winter?! Where art Thou? 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Too early to be confident in details, but definitely have some concerns about precip type issues around here. There is more antecedent cold air for this compared to the storm that just passed (which is not saying much), so should at least be able to maintain a snow band all the way across the region. Congrats Chicago and west. By the time it gets cold enough to target this place, winter will be DOA Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 00z NBM 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Oy. The 0z GFS suddenly doesn't dig the upper trough much, instead shoots the energy east. The result is a faster, weaker system. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 00z gfs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 00z icon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 00z ggem 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 the following sunday and monday is a crush job for those who miss out on this one on the ggem 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 0z GEFS with a jump south tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 39 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS with a jump south tonight. Come south about another 85 miles 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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