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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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So the trend is not just nw, but also a stronger initial low in the plains, which then transfers energy to a developing low east of Iowa, so there is a break in between.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east

Not holding my breath here… we have seen this situation play out way too many times in the past. If our friends @hawkstwelve and @james1976 somehow end up reeling this one in, I am quitting Winter cold turkey haha! 
 

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Feeling solid about a large swath of Nebraska getting 2"+ from this system. Primary concern in my eyes is how much the expected attendant severe weather event in the Deep South will be, as far as its ability to rob moisture from the cold side of the system. Yesterday's 12z Euro seemed to show this (tracked conveniently on WeatherBell via lightning activity maps) but the projected intensity of these storms has backed off since then... whether that directly correlates to the higher snow totals overnight and today, who knows.

 

NWS Hastings has hoisted Winter Storm Watches extending into east-central Nebraska, which I imagine puts some pressure on NWS Omaha to do something too.

 

Given how we aren't dealing with a huge surface high pushing southeast from Canada in the wake of this storm, I don't think the risk is there's a last-minute shift southeast. Instead, with a multi-day trend of guidance gradually de-amplifying the upper-level trough responsible for this storm but maintaining the strength of simultaneous East Coast ridging, I'm more nervous about the storm trekking north like some sporadic guidance has shown recently. Would much rather be in the Tekemah, NE area than Nebraska City, for example, but Omaha looks decent too.

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:  

Next up is a stronger system that is expected to move through the central Plains late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Precip is expected to fall primarily as snow, but some rain and freezing rain is possible on the southeast side of the system. There are still some discrepancies on storm track between the global ensembles. The large majority of members have 6"+ of snow impacting at least parts of the area, but exact location is tougher to pin down. The 12Z CMC and EPS are in pretty good agreement regarding a swath of heavy snow stretching from southwest Nebraska up into northeast Nebraska, but the GEFS is sticking with a more southerly solution. I tend to favor the EPS/CMC solution, so the Winter Storm Watch was stretched all the way up through Valley/Greeley counties.

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3 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Well I guess it up to February to pull us out of this deficit.  Just curious how under average we are in the Detroit area. 

If you're in Milford, compare what you have vs either Brighton or Pontiac. There's a substantial difference from DET up to yby. I use DTW since I am closer to that major recording site. I am at 62% of avg for Nov and Dec. Can't count Jan yet because (against all odds) it could still rally late. Snow doesn't fall equally dispersed on a daily basis. Having said that I expect my deficits to grow. This will be another 11-12. Tree buds caught my attention today when I was out enjoying a brisk walk in the rare sun. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, OmahaSnowFan said:

Northward ho!!!!

It’s really comical.

Even the models don't get the "seasonal trends" of locking-in the FSD->MSP parade route.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At this rate, I'll end up with some rain and a few wet flakes.  Frankly, I'd rather get nothing than an inch of slop.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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