Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 So the trend is not just nw, but also a stronger initial low in the plains, which then transfers energy to a developing low east of Iowa, so there is a break in between. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 hours ago, Bryan1117 said: My friend - I think that Eastern Nebraska and our local exceptional drought conditions are a bit more due for a decent event than IA/ Chicago… LOL! No doubt about that. I think a lot of Nebraska is looking good with this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Pretty gross to see the models crap the bed and weaken as they head east Not holding my breath here… we have seen this situation play out way too many times in the past. If our friends @hawkstwelve and @james1976 somehow end up reeling this one in, I am quitting Winter cold turkey haha! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 definite north trend on models today and the ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 12z model runs look like Canadian is furthest north, Euro in the middle, GFS farthest south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z nbm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 The EPS mean has jumped at least 200 miles north in the last 24 hours. If it doesn’t reverse course in the next 24 hours then I’ll feel safe in saying this is not our storm in east central Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Feeling solid about a large swath of Nebraska getting 2"+ from this system. Primary concern in my eyes is how much the expected attendant severe weather event in the Deep South will be, as far as its ability to rob moisture from the cold side of the system. Yesterday's 12z Euro seemed to show this (tracked conveniently on WeatherBell via lightning activity maps) but the projected intensity of these storms has backed off since then... whether that directly correlates to the higher snow totals overnight and today, who knows. NWS Hastings has hoisted Winter Storm Watches extending into east-central Nebraska, which I imagine puts some pressure on NWS Omaha to do something too. Given how we aren't dealing with a huge surface high pushing southeast from Canada in the wake of this storm, I don't think the risk is there's a last-minute shift southeast. Instead, with a multi-day trend of guidance gradually de-amplifying the upper-level trough responsible for this storm but maintaining the strength of simultaneous East Coast ridging, I'm more nervous about the storm trekking north like some sporadic guidance has shown recently. Would much rather be in the Tekemah, NE area than Nebraska City, for example, but Omaha looks decent too. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z nam is south but it's 84hr nam so... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Went from a 30-40% chance of 3+ inches and a 0% chance of 6+ inches on the 00z EPS to 60-70% and 40-50% chance respectively on the 12z EPS. Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Well I guess it up to February to pull us out of this deficit. Just curious how under average we are in the Detroit area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z rgem is even farther north than 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Reel it in Sioux Falls and Minneapolis!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 hows this thing looking over this way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z gfs coming in hot for lincoln and nebraska in general 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 18z NAM at 84 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: Next up is a stronger system that is expected to move through the central Plains late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Precip is expected to fall primarily as snow, but some rain and freezing rain is possible on the southeast side of the system. There are still some discrepancies on storm track between the global ensembles. The large majority of members have 6"+ of snow impacting at least parts of the area, but exact location is tougher to pin down. The 12Z CMC and EPS are in pretty good agreement regarding a swath of heavy snow stretching from southwest Nebraska up into northeast Nebraska, but the GEFS is sticking with a more southerly solution. I tend to favor the EPS/CMC solution, so the Winter Storm Watch was stretched all the way up through Valley/Greeley counties. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Our superintendent just texted me to tell me that NWS Hastings is having a webinar tomorrow at 2:30 for school administrators about the storm. I would guess if things stay as they are, many schools and others will be closed Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 Accuweather forecast. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Ferndale_man said: Well I guess it up to February to pull us out of this deficit. Just curious how under average we are in the Detroit area. If you're in Milford, compare what you have vs either Brighton or Pontiac. There's a substantial difference from DET up to yby. I use DTW since I am closer to that major recording site. I am at 62% of avg for Nov and Dec. Can't count Jan yet because (against all odds) it could still rally late. Snow doesn't fall equally dispersed on a daily basis. Having said that I expect my deficits to grow. This will be another 11-12. Tree buds caught my attention today when I was out enjoying a brisk walk in the rare sun. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Northward ho!!!! It’s really comical. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, OmahaSnowFan said: Northward ho!!!! It’s really comical. Even the models don't get the "seasonal trends" of locking-in the FSD->MSP parade route. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 At this rate, I'll end up with some rain and a few wet flakes. Frankly, I'd rather get nothing than an inch of slop. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Northward ho!!!! It’s really comical. I hate to say it but me thinks you are right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 18z EPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Northward ho!!!! It’s really comical. Trends maybe negative for >6", but still looking solid for a couple inches or more. Better than a dry slot, in my view. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 00Z NBM 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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