gabel23 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 35 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: 00Z NBM Give me a tug South about 20 miles and I’m sitting in the 8+ band. Don’t get north of that river and everyone along I-80 is in good shape. Just stay the course tonight models.. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Northward ho!!!! It’s really comical. I am also thinking that we are in trouble with the recent ridiculous pattern… honestly let’s just cancel Winter here and accept our exceptional drought here locally, if we end up missing this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 GFS and Canadian trying to give me false hope. I’m not falling for it. Lol. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: GEFS well north of the operational model in eastern Iowa. Not a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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WinterSquall23 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: If you're in Milford, compare what you have vs either Brighton or Pontiac. There's a substantial difference from DET up to yby. I use DTW since I am closer to that major recording site. I am at 62% of avg for Nov and Dec. Can't count Jan yet because (against all odds) it could still rally late. Snow doesn't fall equally dispersed on a daily basis. Having said that I expect my deficits to grow. This will be another 11-12. Tree buds caught my attention today when I was out enjoying a brisk walk in the rare sun. Good to know! Thanks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 0Z Euro with another step north. Minneapolis and Sioux Falls now with more snow forecast than Omaha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Minneapolis getting another 6+? LOL They are just reeling in everything this winter. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 06 GFS goes S for most of IA,, though i don't trust it, it will keep me sucked in for a few more model runs- sadly. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 OAX with a good AFD this AM (wish DMX could par up)-- Wednesday - Thursday Morning: Our attention turns next to the storm mid-week this week. Models are finally coming into fairly good agreement on a general track of the low through central or northwest Missouri. This, though, continues a trend to shift the heavy snow axis slightly more north each run. Feeling more confident enough, though, as the ensemble members are becoming more clustered with the track, which "should" keep significant shifts from occurring. We`re still trying to nail down the location of the heaviest snow band, but we can more confidently say there will be a wide swath of greater than 4 inches of snow, including much the area along and just north of I-80. One caveat: we`ll need to watch the warm-air advection closely as it may lead to a changeover to freezing rain or sleet along the freezing line, and all rain across SE Nebraska. This could significantly cut into snow totals, leading to a steep gradient in amounts and the potential for icy conditions for some. Our National Blend of Models puts that just south of Omaha and Lincoln, but if this shifts any farther north this could lead to a drop in forecast amounts for these locations. Another concern I have is the potential for a band of freezing rain right along or just north of the freezing line Wednesday afternoon, which could lead to icy conditions. Models suggest this could occur, but lack in confidence in its location or duration at this time led me to keeping it out of the forecast for now. Temperatures will start to fall across SE Nebraska Wednesday evening leading to an eventual changeover to snow. Snowfall amounts will directly correlate to how early or late these areas changeover to snow. Precipitation will start exiting SE Nebraska after midnight, and should be out of the area by 6 AM Thursday morning. This of course leans heavily on the current ensemble and model solutions, which suggest this timing. These systems do have a tendency to slow down as they approach, which could lead to a later start and end time. This could lead to a slight increase in snowfall amounts with the current track due to more time with precipitation after sunset. In general, I still don`t want to discuss in too much confidence snowfall amounts due to the potential for additional adjustments in the track and a fairly wide range in totals by different model solutions. What I will say is that the National Blend of Models shows a wide swath of greater than 60 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow, some areas greater than 70 percent chance. We`ll hopefully get a better handle on exact amounts by tomorrow. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Not bad from DMX-- (Donovan is the best forecaster they got)- The other forecast challenge arrives Wednesday through Thursday morning as a closed upper low moves from southeast Colorado and into southeast Iowa. The overall evolution of this system remains on track with the initial low pressure moving into eastern Kansas with another low developing to the east. The past few nights was concerned that the eastern low development and associated convection over the southeast CONUS would disrupt the moisture advection into Iowa. The warm conveyor transport of moisture from the strong low and mid-level northward moisture advection does appear strong enough to arch the moisture transport back northwest and should have a TROWAL feature develop as this occurs. The forcing with this system does look stronger than what is associated with today`s system and it actually looks more impressive as the event nears. Ample moisture supply, a period of good dendritic growth with sufficient forcing for a 12-18 hr period will likely lead to a swath of 4+ inches of snow, especially along and north of the TROWAL axis which is roughly north of Interstate 80. Southeast Iowa will have rain at times which will limit amounts. There may be a period of aggregate crystal growth as deep layer saturation in the -1C to -3C range occurs before cold advection drops the temperatures outside this range. That could lead to a period of higher snow rates and even a sticky snow. Some blowing snow could occur with wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range as dendrites become more fluffy with the cooling. No significant weather is expected Friday and into the weekend with mostly dry conditions and highs in the 20s and 30s expected. DISCUSSION...Donavon 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 watches out for lincoln/omaha and northwest 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 GFS ensembles seems to be getting locked in ( whatever that means) --- 00z and 06Z -- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 DMX first take - 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 yikes on the nam 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Congrats to the NE members on reeling in a solid winter storm. @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 @Bryan1117 0z EPS...locked in....Northwoods trails should be doing alright after this one...I personally think the GEFS will trend towards the EPS. My gut was telling me not to get sucked into this one and that it had eyes north of the "Cheddar Curtain". As much as I would love to see a solid snowstorm, I'm happy for you guys out west that are snow starved just like a lot of us south of I-80. Speaking of I-80 and the corridor, I happened to read WGN's Blog this morning and the season's snowfall to date just shows how bad its been THUS far... Nevertheless, this storm appears to dump some impressive snowfall totals... @james1976both your places are gonna cash in! @hawkstwelvereels in another one! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Please push more north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 It’s white flag time for those of us along I80 in eastern Iowa. When you’re only hope is the GFS, you have no hope. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z nbm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Tom said: Congrats to the NE members on reeling in a solid winter storm. @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 @Bryan1117 0z EPS...locked in....Northwoods trails should be doing alright after this one...I personally think the GEFS will trend towards the EPS. My gut was telling me not to get sucked into this one and that it had eyes north of the "Cheddar Curtain". As much as I would love to see a solid snowstorm, I'm happy for you guys out west that are snow starved just like a lot of us south of I-80. Speaking of I-80 and the corridor, I happened to read WGN's Blog this morning and the season's snowfall to date just shows how bad its been THUS far... Nevertheless, this storm appears to dump some impressive snowfall totals... @james1976both your places are gonna cash in! @hawkstwelvereels in another one! 68" inches of snow (I've had 61") and we've probably had 10 days with snow otg this whole winter Two events. Weird winter. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 A simple look at why the snow band has shifted so far north and eastern Iowa went from the cross hairs to rain/mix. You can see the 850mb map here from Friday's 12z Euro, the lowest heights were centered around central MO. Compared to last night's 00z run which is centered on the Iowa/Missouri border. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 NAM continues the inch north. Some areas under a watch would get little to no snow on this run. But it's the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 NWS Hastings says to watch the ensembles. Doesn't think the track will move much more, might even come back south some. We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 NAM showing some ice as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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