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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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NAM and RDPS actually doing better in West C.IA compared to previous runs. It can't hurt. This will likely be classic riding the rain/ snow line and 20 miles NW gets pounded-- albeit not as much as further NW where the trowal will be more certain.snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The GDPS dropped the heavy burst over CR/IC, so the GFS is pretty much on its own.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  '21-22: 27.1"Ā  Ā  Ā  '20-21: 52.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  '19-20: 36.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā  Ā  Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not super confident on this one here right now. Think a rain/snow mix results in 1-2" of slush, if that. Need the system as a whole to track further SE for us. Especially with such a marginal airmass.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Ā 

(1/1: 6.4")

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34 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

icon_asnow_ncus_33.png

FWIW-- ICON was one - if not the first- to show the N trend about 36-42 hours ago. Seeing it come S now is a good sign imo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I like it too.Ā  Of course it has me in the bullseye in Central Nebraska, so that adds to my liking.Ā 

When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

A simple look at why the snow band has shifted so far north and eastern Iowa went from the cross hairs to rain/mix.

You can see the 850mb map here from Friday's 12z Euro, the lowest heights were centered around central MO.

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850wh.conus.png

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Compared to last night's 00z run which is centered on the Iowa/Missouri border.Ā Ā 

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850wh.conus.png

Those lows near Iowa/Mo border usuallyĀ  bring me littleĀ  in the way of precip. I call them "drizzle storms". Its shockingĀ  that a low pressureĀ  can pass so close to my locationĀ  and basicallyĀ  get no precip. Todays low for exampleĀ  just .07 has fallen.Ā  A joke and hype, remove the LLJ overnites in summer months andĀ  the very occasionalĀ  stalling front along the Iowa/Mo border area and I really believe we wouldĀ  get less than 15 inches of precip a year here!

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59 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there.

We are so overdue here in Nebraska for this one... just hope we don't get the rug pulled from out under us again - it's happened a few times too many for our liking the last 2 years.Ā 

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The Euro is a little deeper with the cold air further south this run, especially in Eastern Iowa, but the main band of precip moves through pretty fast and then we get dry slotted.Ā  Shows a couple inches of snow here along with what I assume is sleet/freezing rain.Ā  Looks like your standard winter slop fest.Ā  I forsee a Winter Weather Advisory in my future for 1-2" of snow and a glaze of ice.Ā Ā 

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