Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 NAM and RDPS actually doing better in West C.IA compared to previous runs. It can't hurt. This will likely be classic riding the rain/ snow line and 20 miles NW gets pounded-- albeit not as much as further NW where the trowal will be more certain. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 GFS holding it's own but this time spreads heavier totals into E.IA--- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 I don't believe you GFS.Ā Ā 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 GFS has virtually all the snow falling in Iowa City and Cedar Rapids in a 6 hour window. It's either gonna be one of the highest snow rates I've ever witnessed or dead wrong... Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 The GDPS dropped the heavy burst over CR/IC, so the GFS is pretty much on its own. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Whoa, that is a great hit for Nebraska.Ā Come on GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Not super confident on this one here right now. Think a rain/snow mix results in 1-2" of slush, if that. Need the system as a whole to track further SE for us. Especially with such a marginal airmass. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Ā (1/1: 6.4") Ā Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 12Z GEFS looks like it has come in slightly south, or maybe it is the just the amounts seem to have gone up this run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Canadian really turns north with the rain/snow line in Eastern Iowa.Ā Much further north than the GFS.Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 12Z GEFS.Ā Pretty impressive. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 GEFS hotter for C.IA---Ā liking the trends thus far this AM (only to be shot down in 90 mins by the King) - Ā 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Grizzcoat said: GEFS hotter for C.IA---Ā liking the trends thus far this AM (only to be shot down in 90 mins by the King) - Ā I like it too.Ā Of course it has me in the bullseye in Central Nebraska, so that adds to my liking.Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 34 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: FWIW-- ICON was one - if not the first- to show the N trend about 36-42 hours ago. Seeing it come S now is a good sign imo. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: I like it too.Ā Of course it has me in the bullseye in Central Nebraska, so that adds to my liking.Ā When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 UK stays further north Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 WPC weather map for Wednesday.Ā Whoa.Ā Ā 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, bud2380 said: A simple look at why the snow band has shifted so far north and eastern Iowa went from the cross hairs to rain/mix. You can see the 850mb map here from Friday's 12z Euro, the lowest heights were centered around central MO. Ā Ā Compared to last night's 00z run which is centered on the Iowa/Missouri border.Ā Ā Ā Those lows near Iowa/Mo border usuallyĀ bring me littleĀ in the way of precip. I call them "drizzle storms". Its shockingĀ that a low pressureĀ can pass so close to my locationĀ and basicallyĀ get no precip. Todays low for exampleĀ just .07 has fallen.Ā A joke and hype, remove the LLJ overnites in summer months andĀ the very occasionalĀ stalling front along the Iowa/Mo border area and I really believe we wouldĀ get less than 15 inches of precip a year here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z GEFS.Ā Pretty impressive. Lock this one in PLEASE... starting to feel a little bit more confident that we might get closer to double digit seasonal snowfall after this system. Fingers crossed guys and gals!Ā 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 59 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: When your in the bullseye with an ensemble at this range- you can brag all you want. Not saying it will happen, but good for you peeps out there. We are so overdue here in Nebraska for this one... just hope we don't get the rug pulled from out under us again - it's happened a few times too many for our liking the last 2 years.Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 I do hope the Nebraska people get a good hit, it has been awhile.Ā I just wish this would track more West-East.Ā That just doesn't happen very often though.Ā Euro is about to start and will laugh in the face of the further south GFS. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Here's the airmass this storm is running in to.Ā Even with a slightly further north track, if there was more cold air to work with, there would be more snow all around.Ā Just not in the cards though with this one. Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 You can already tell at hour 45 that the Euro will be well north of the GFS.Ā The SLP forms further north in CO and the precip shield extends well further north into the Black Hills of SD, where the GFS doesn't get that far north at any point. Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Wagons north! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 As the crow flies, GFS is about 150 miles further south/south west of the Euro at noon Wednesday. Ā Ā Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Euro is a little deeper with the cold air further south this run, especially in Eastern Iowa, but the main band of precip moves through pretty fast and then we get dry slotted.Ā Shows a couple inches of snow here along with what I assume is sleet/freezing rain.Ā Looks like your standard winter slop fest.Ā I forsee a Winter Weather Advisory in my future for 1-2" of snow and a glaze of ice.Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Euro and GFS are not terribly different in many aspects of the storm.Ā The main difference (and it's a big one) is simply SLP placement.Ā The GFS is way further south, so the entire snow/precip shield is also further south.Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 Sref is trending north 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Sref is trending north I would say the amounts are higher this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 12Z CMCE.Ā Looks good.Ā More than the previous run, maybe a tick southeast. Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 5" feels like a good starting point for Omaha. Anywhere from 3-12" in play, but NWS Omaha's range of 4-7" makes a lot of sense. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 40 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Sref is trending north Has a northward bias at longer ranges. Not very useful. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Ā (1/1: 6.4") Ā Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 12Z EPSĀ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2023 Report Share Posted January 16, 2023 18z NWS Blend 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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