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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

My thoughts exactly. People that are not weather savvy and ***** and complain about a missed forecast- or especially those that say "they can't even get it right tomorrow" just show there weather igno

Bryan1117
Bryan1117

Hello from Cozumel, Mexico - the wife and I are returning back to Omaha today and I was hoping to be able to ease back with some decent, not frigid weather which looks to be the case… Excited that we

james1976
james1976

Happy for the Nebraska peeps in here. They have earned it. My home in IA is in a Winter Storm Warning. I will be driving down in the morning in time😎. Calling for 5-9" but I'm thinking it will be

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

Living from model to model won't do anyone any good for their mental health, especially with the NAM. I should be excited or ecstatic about this run of NAM for Des Moines area, yet, I'll take it with a mountain of salt. Perhaps that salt turns into a mountain of snow, but not banking on it after one good run. Neither should any Omaha people just bc one bad run. Hard to do, I know, but have faith. Let's share the wealth as much as we can with this one!

This is a good point; one could take the 00z NAM and push back with the 00z HRRR (attached thru Hour 48)... in the end they're both limited compared to the computing power of global models. Continued northern shifts in this cycle from the Canadian, ICON, GFS, Euro (especially the last two, of course) would be worth more than hi-res stuff, in my opinion.

hrrr-central-total_snow_kuchera-4086400.png

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

Posted
Posted

As others have stated above, actually kind of impressed with how model guidance is coming in. Feels like a while since we've had a < 48hrs-from-event 00z cycle (or 12z, for that matter... really any cycle) not continuing to slash totals / pull the rug out, etc. Kind of a sad way that this is a "win" for this winter (barring a last-second collapse), but at least it's something.

 

Going to say 5" of snow and a thick glaze of ice to make everything shiny here in Omaha. Though risks to the forecast do seem a little more skewed to the upside for snow with the 00z data in so far.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

DMX AFD- talks possible CI release- (thundersnow) 

Vigorous upper low ejects out of the central Rockies early
Wednesday. Moisture is quickly pulled off the Gulf and streams
northward within a belt of strong theta-e advection. Expecting a
broad swath of precip to push into the state by Wednesday
afternoon and evening as deep, phased kinematic and thermodynamic
forcing crosses the region. Models have come into reasonably
better agreement on track and precip amounts over the last 12
hours and have slowed on the northerly trend, however timing
differences still remain. In addition, pinpointing the rain/snow
transition Wed afternoon and evening is a challenge as temps from
southwest into central Iowa will be hover near to just above
freezing. Isentropic lift during this period particularly robust
especially along the 290-295k surfaces which will be pumping 3-4
g/kg spec humidity to near the DGZ. Furthermore, cross-sections
show some folded saturated theta-e surfaces and the potential for
CI release. 00z HREF has latched on to this and advertises
elevated probabilities for 1-2"/hr snow rates into west central
Iowa by 21z and translating east. Current thinking is dynamic
cooling + ene wind will be enough to offset low level warm air
advection and set up the rain/snow line to near or south of the
DSM metro for the evening commute. This will need to be closely
monitored since a temp swing of just 1 or 2 degrees in either
direction will have a significant impact on the southerly extent
of wintry travel impacts around that time period. Higher
confidence in deteriorating travel conditions closer to Hwy 30
and points north.

Upper low matures into Wed night as a dry slot swings around the
southern side. This dries out the DGZ over central into southern
Iowa and will limit accumulating snowfall potential and may even
lead to periods of light freezing drizzle. Snowfall continues in
earnest over northern Iowa as a ribbon of moisture is advected
back into a well defined TROWAL region. Snow winds down Thursday
morning as the upper low kicks northeast. Expecting the swath of
4-9" of snowfall within the issued Winter Storm Watch, and the
axis of highest amounts north of an Atlantic-Ames-Waterloo line.
Some blowing snow is possible, however winds will not be overly
gusty with this system due to limited cold air advection and weak
surface pressure tendencies.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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