1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[gosaints]

Fun looking storm out in Nebraska.  

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Mean.  Looking good for Omaha, lord knows you've earned it!

 

[jcwxguy]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Mean.  Looking good for Omaha, lord knows you've earned it!

 

 able to zoom in on any of those?

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

 able to zoom in on any of those?

This is the best I can do for the Control and Mean.

[gosaints]

Nothing like analyzing 48 hour run of the HRRR....

[jcwxguy]

[gabel23]

3 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Well look at that bullseye right over my county!!! I'm excited to see this play out tomorrow. If I get 6+ it will be my biggest storm in over two years. 

[jcwxguy]

00z

 

[gosaints]

The NAM again hits MSP with it's magnet it seems

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Madtown]

Sure looks like the short term models are trending north over this way.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think the entire state is closed tomorrow. The closings website just keep listing more school and business closures. I’ve heard they are going to start closing I80 in a rolling process so people aren’t stranded tomorrow 

[gosaints]

4 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Sure looks like the short term models are trending north over this way.

For sure at least so far.  A more organized storm further north and east it seams at 0z so far

[gosaints]

9 minutes ago, gosaints said:

For sure at least so far.  A more organized storm further north and east it seams at 0z so far

RGEM way different

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the 18z Euro wasn't alone. NAM, WRF models, RGEM 00z runs are all coming in with a jog to the SE, especially beyond NE eastern border. Interesting.

Good find. That is very interesting. 

[james1976]

Happy for the Nebraska peeps in here. They have earned it.

My home in IA is in a Winter Storm Warning. I will be driving down in the morning in time. Calling for 5-9" but I'm thinking it will be on the lower end of that.

I'll be in Chicago Friday and then back in the TC Saturday. 

Good luck everyone!

[jcwxguy]

[Madtown]

Well starting to get sucked in on this one.

[jcwxguy]

[ToastedRavs]

Canadian holding steady for  Nebraska and western half of Iowa folks out to 30 hours.  Seems to be consistent with that SE tweak from the 12z model runs that I believe Hawks was mentioning 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

03z RAP 

[The Snowman]

NWS Omaha increases the WSW snow wording from 3-8" to 4-14" ... do not envy the forecasters in this spot:

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 14 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east
  central, northeast and southeast Nebraska. Ice accumulations
  limited to west central Iowa and east central and southeast
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Ukie 

[Grizzcoat]

SREF continues SE drift--

[Grizzcoat]

Euro-

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues to suggest a few inches could fall in the CR/IC area.  I'll take the under.

[gabel23]

8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro-

This would take insane snowfall rates to come true. Most models are consistent with showing the heavy axis and less dry air/sleet. Gonna be an interesting morning to say the least.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Accu model-- probably more realistic-

[gabel23]

I just had time to read the disco from earlier this afternoon from GID Hastings, not being picky but wow what a paragraph!

 

This event will be a high-end winter system for our forecast
area, and impacts are likely to be felt through at least Thu, and
likely even into Fri for rural areas that receive heavy snow. Our
in-house "Blizzard Severity Index" is a solid 3-3.5 (on scale of
0-5) for areas with heaviest snow. Only missing factors to a more
historic blizzard are 5-10 MPH stronger gusts and colder temps.
More well-known Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is also
impressive, with widespread "Major" impacts from SW to NE Neb.,
and a sizable area of "Moderate" impacts surrounding it.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
307 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-
066-181715-
/O.CON.KOAX.WS.W.0002.230118T1200Z-230119T1200Z/
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-
Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-
Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,
Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Council Bluffs, Creighton,
Bloomfield, Crofton, Wausa, Verdigre, Niobrara, Hartington,
Laurel, Randolph, Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago,
Neligh, Elgin, Pierce, Plainview, Osmond, Wayne, Albion,
St. Edward, Norfolk, Stanton, West Point, Wisner, Tekamah,
Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Columbus, Schuyler, Fremont, Blair,
David City, Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion,
La Vista, Seward, Milford, and Lincoln
307 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 9 inches along I 80 and 8 to 14 inches
  north of the Platte River and ice accumulations of around two
  tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Iowa and east
  central, northeast and southeast Nebraska.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&