1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

For those that have been around the block a few times- here's Instant Wx Maps snowfall (I like to compare it to Pivotal for old times sake for Instant WX maps used to be the gold standard and want to compare and contrast)  Impressive in C.NE!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Probably an oddity I'am about to show- but something really doesn't make sense. First is official snow forecast recently updated for KDSM airport. 3.8"

Then is the 10% chance of happening for max snowfall for KDSM. 4". So KDSM only needs .2 of an inch more to make a 10% probability? If Vegas gave me 9:1 odds on this-- I'd bet $500 and possibily walk away with 4500 extra bucks-----    odd and a little biased from the forecaster (martin) but hey, he gets a pension and I don't :O)

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Great morning disco from NWS Hastings. This is the first part. 

Snowfall amounts continue to go up and this storm appears as though it could be historic and one to remember especially around and just northwest of the Tri-Cities * The wind is also increasing a bit more than in our previous forecast with pretty solid gusts of 30-35 mph. The strongest winds will be tonight and then tail off on Thursday * Thunder is certainly possible with both the freezing rain and snow today, which is very rare, but conditions are there for possible thunder snow today.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings disco continued:  

Heaviest Precipitation... The 1/18 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS continue to impress with increases in overall QPF for the Tri-Cities now 1.30-1.75 inches. Most models are consistently indicating over 1 inch of liquid equivalent precipitation in this same areas as we can see through ensemble means. Where precipitation type is all snow this will translate into over 1 foot of snow and possibly higher amounts. The localized high end amounts around or just northwest of Grand Island and Kearney could be pushing 15 inches, which would be pretty historic. Forecast models may now be indicating that our noted via a review of the isentropic heaviest snowfall area may need to be extended a bit further snow into Kearney and Grand Island. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Local ABC Meteorologist 

 

[Tom]

@CentralNebWeather, your snow magnet has come out to play and that goes for the rest of the entire state of Nebraska!  What a perfect daytime snow storm your going to enjoy all day today.  I can't say it enough how much I'm thrilled for you guys to cash in on a major winter storm just about when the pattern is going to get cold for a while so you can enjoy a thick blanket of white gold. 

@gabel23is your area is pretty darn close to where the epicenter may end up?

 

 

This system has certainly gotten its act together...let the trowal and comma head begin to deliver the goods!  

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=50&interval=5&year=2023&month=1&day=18&hour=5&minute=35

 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, your snow magnet has come out to play and that goes for the rest of the entire state of Nebraska!  What a perfect daytime snow storm your going to enjoy all day today.  I can't say it enough how much I'm thrilled for you guys to cash in on a major winter storm just about when the pattern is going to get cold for a while so you can enjoy a thick blanket of white gold. 

@gabel23is your area is pretty darn close to where the epicenter may end up?

 

 

This system has certainly gotten its act together...let the trowal and comma head begin to deliver the goods!  

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=50&interval=5&year=2023&month=1&day=18&hour=5&minute=35

 

Thanks @Tom  Got a solid 4” on the ground so far and radar continues to light up. Will be hoping for some Thunder snow. 

[Tom]

Let's not forget the 4 corners region as this area has been blessed with abundant moisture and significant mountain snows.  Since 1/14, Snowbowl up in Flagstaff has received 49" and counting!   I think Flagstaff might set a JAN record for snowfall but I gotta double check on this stat.  Oh, and how about So Cal??  Ya, they did well also...up to 28"...

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Thanks @Tom  Got a solid 4” on the ground so far and radar continues to light up. Will be hoping for some Thunder snow. 

Good luck and I'm sure as daylight emerges you'll be out there!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Thanks @Tom  Got a solid 4” on the ground so far and radar continues to light up. Will be hoping for some Thunder snow. 

Usually the amounts being put out are at at 300 hours in fantasy land. This is almost unprecedented to see totals for such a large area as the storm keep going up as it is here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

We live on an emergency snow route and I keep hearing snowplows come by. I’m guessing they are trying to stay ahead before the very heavy bands develop later this morning   

[CentralNebWeather]

This will cause delays across the nation as I80 is a major east west interstate. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Let's not forget the 4 corners region as this area has been blessed with abundant moisture and significant mountain snows.  Since 1/14, Snowbowl up in Flagstaff has received 49" and counting!   I think Flagstaff might set a JAN record for snowfall but I gotta double check on this stat.  Oh, and how about So Cal??  Ya, they did well also...up to 28"...

Tom- Flagstaff's all time record for JAN is an impressive 104.8" in 1949!!

[Madtown]

Anyone have the 6z Euro over this way?

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Anyone have the 6z Euro over this way?

[Bryan1117]

On 1/16/2023 at 6:34 AM, GDR said:

Please push more north

Hoping the temps can stay put today and keep mixing out of the equation… as long as we don’t get too much sleet/ freezing rain I think we might end up close to 8-10” from this system today. I can’t remember the last time we scored a big snow like this during the daytime hours!

Let’s freaking GO!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just had a very heavy cell come through with snow and sleet combined. The instability is wild out there.

[CentralNebWeather]

One of the major east west highways across Nebraska is also closing. We are basically going to be shutdown for a couple of days it appears. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRRR. Keeps up the insane totals. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RAP. 

[Tom]

39 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Tom- Flagstaff's all time record for JAN is an impressive 104.8" in 1949!!

Holy smokes!  Ya, that's prob not going to happen but maybe a #2 spot is in the cards.  Thanks for pulling up the stat brotha!

[MIKEKC]

Good luck to all the snow lovers in the path of today's storm. We'll enjoy our rain here in KC. Better than nothing!!! Moisture is always a good thing....

[CentralNebWeather]

Radar lighting up like summer thunderstorms. We will get some insane rates later this morning. This is developing in Kansas and moving north into my area  

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

21 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Radar lighting up like summer thunderstorms. We will get some insane rates later this morning. This is developing in Kansas and moving north into my area  

Heavy daytime snow! Can't beat it

[CentralNebWeather]

Roads and streets are horrendous from what I’m reading. It is only going to get worse. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRW NSSL 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, your snow magnet has come out to play and that goes for the rest of the entire state of Nebraska!  What a perfect daytime snow storm your going to enjoy all day today.  I can't say it enough how much I'm thrilled for you guys to cash in on a major winter storm just about when the pattern is going to get cold for a while so you can enjoy a thick blanket of white gold. 

@gabel23is your area is pretty darn close to where the epicenter may end up?

 

 

This system has certainly gotten its act together...let the trowal and comma head begin to deliver the goods!  

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=50&interval=5&year=2023&month=1&day=18&hour=5&minute=35

 

Yeah Tom, I’m on the eastern end of the heaviest snow line. The euro would give me between 13-17”. I’m hoping for 10+ and I will be completely happy! Looks like this thing might be historic, it’s just crazy that we’re going to see this amount of snow in a short period of time!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRW ARW. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Local law enforcement saying over 5” so far as the snow continues to develop and get heavier. As of 8 am. 

[bud2380]

7" reported in North Platte already.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RGEM 

[Madtown]

Sure seems all the short term hi res models show a good storm up this way, wonder if the NWS sees something else or just waiting it out. All models paint 6-11 and down for 3 right now in all forecasts

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Sure seems all the short term hi res models show a good storm up this way, wonder if the NWS sees something else or just waiting it out. All models paint 6-11 and down for 3 right now in all forecasts

Fronto bands suck to predict

[gosaints]

My thoughts are high end advisories totals around here to MSP.  

[Troop]

Off topic, but have been a member of this forum since 2014 and rarely miss a post but also rarely offer up a comment.  Just wondering if it isn't time to consider splitting this west or east "of the rockies" group into a Great Plains and Great Lakes group, for those east of the Rockies.  So often, the Cornhuskers take over a post in which a storm is hitting them, but not impacting east of the Mississippi.  Conversely, storms that track through WI/IL/MI/IN don't always have impact in the Plains states and those living within 10 hours of Chicago take over a post.  It's a BIG area that the jet stream impacts very differently - I always enjoy the information and discussion that Tom provides here on the forum, but would like to see it split back up again into separate boards for the Great Plains and Great Lakes.  Just my two cents.  For this current storm that is blowing hard through NB and working across IA and into WI, its a solid one - enjoy it, but go ez on your backs when digging out.

[CentralNebWeather]

14z RAP. 

[Hawkeye]

There's a clockwise-rotating meso-low on radar between Holdrege and Lincoln, not something we see every day.

Holdrege appears to be in a prime spot over the next few hours as a plume of intense precip is aimed at them.