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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
346 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-191015-
/O.CON.KOAX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-
Boone-Madison-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-
Butler-Saunders-
Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,
Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Creighton, Bloomfield, Crofton,
Wausa, Verdigre, Niobrara, Hartington, Laurel, Randolph,
Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago, Neligh, Elgin,
Pierce, Plainview, Osmond, Wayne, Albion, St. Edward, Norfolk,
Stanton, West Point, Wisner, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur,
Columbus, Schuyler, Fremont, Blair, David City, Wahoo, Ashland,
and Yutan
346 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, with some sleet and freezing rain in east
  central Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 5 inches along Interstate 80 and 6 to 12 inches north of a
  line from about David City to Fremont and Harlan Iowa. Snowfall
  rates greater than 1 inch per hour still possible this evening
  in parts of northeast Nebraska. Light ice accumulations. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...All of northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Thursday. The heaviest snow will fall
  between 4 PM and Midnight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening and morning
  commutes.

I dont see that verifying here in fremont

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Been on here for 5 years but never comment however I enjoy all of your posts on weather. Living in Omaha as a weather enthusiast could be the most depressing thing ever. Today was a complete bust! It looked very promising for an hour or so this morning but flipped quick and dry air killed everything. 

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8 minutes ago, BDT said:

Been on here for 5 years but never comment however I enjoy all of your posts on weather. Living in Omaha as a weather enthusiast could be the most depressing thing ever. Today was a complete bust! It looked very promising for an hour or so this morning but flipped quick and dry air killed everything. 

Yep. Looked good when we started all snow and thought the slop would stay just south of here like the models showed. Got a quick 1-1.5” and now nothing.

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same deal here just W of DSM-- cold rain. Wasting away the potential snow. At least here we were not in warning for 6" or so--- but sucks all the way around.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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17 minutes ago, BDT said:

Been on here for 5 years but never comment however I enjoy all of your posts on weather. Living in Omaha as a weather enthusiast could be the most depressing thing ever. Today was a complete bust! It looked very promising for an hour or so this morning but flipped quick and dry air killed everything. 

After today I think I am completely checked out on Winter weather, two lousy Winters in a row has killed any optimism that things will turn around... Bring on Spring (minus the fires and dust storms)! 

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I have to admit my failure in cutting down DMX forecast from this morning. MARTIN (the forecaster) was DEAD on. I was wrong in calling him out. IN fact- totals will likely be less than forecasted and I called them out for being too low.

Kudos to the pros. They work for NWS for a reason-- and not me (thank goodness)

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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No school again tomorrow for us. Just cleared the driveway. Most snow I can remember clearing since the Feb. 1st Blizzard of 2016. Law enforcement reports of 12” or more. That seems right to me, but the wind is also causing some blowing and drifting. Might get to 14”. Accuweather predicted this amount first several days ago with 10-15”. 

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5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Still a cold rain here. BUST is about happening here in less something changes real quick.

 

Freezing level is dropping on DMX. The afternoon runs had kept Des Moines as rain through 00z and CR as rain until 01-02z. You probably wont see 6", but 3-4" is very possible for you I think. Still think 2-3" is reasonable here.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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13 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No school again tomorrow for us. Just cleared the driveway. Most snow I can remember clearing since the Feb. 1st Blizzard of 2016. Law enforcement reports of 12” or more. That seems right to me, but the wind is also causing some blowing and drifting. Might get to 14”. Accuweather predicted this amount first several days ago with 10-15”. 

Glad this system treated you well, this will go a long way to helping with river levels and soil moisture in the parts of Nebraska that needed it the most. Just crazy how things went so far south just east of you... 

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Rain/snow mix down by my house. Radar is so impressive too. If only it were a degree or two colder. 

Bright banding due to the melting layer. If it were colder the returns would be much more typical.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Just now, Bryan1117 said:

Glad this system treated you well, this will go a long way to helping with river levels and soil moisture in the parts of Nebraska that needed it the most. Just crazy how things went so far south just east of you... 

I’m happy with my amount. Some places that got the band this afternoon had nothing through lunchtime, just sleet like Hastings and Grand Island. I heard Kearney was over 10” or more. 

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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’m happy with my amount. Some places that got the band this afternoon had nothing through lunchtime, just sleet like Hastings and Grand Island. I heard Kearney was over 10” or more. 

It’s been a crazy day here. I seen snowfall rates of one to 2 inches an hour for a solid four hours. Just when I thought the dry air would win out, we now have switched back over to heavy snow. roughly eye balling 5” here and hoping to continue to add to the amount. Hastings seem to think so. They had a great disco today. Glad you did well! 
 

Elsewhere, likely looking at another 1-3hr of hvy snow for most
areas between Hwy 6 and Hwy 92. By 6-7PM, the best snw accums will
have shifted to areas along and N of Hwy 92 where another 3-4"
will be possible. Areas along I-80 can expect about another 1-2".
When all is said and done, based on current reports and ideas
outlined above...think a significant portion of the CWA along and
north of a line from HDE to GRI to OLU will have 12-18" of snow,
perhaps higher in the ODX area. Even Hastings, which was
essentially snow free thru noon, may wind up with 10-12", which
would be very impressive. No other way to put it besides saying
this is one of the most intense bursts of snow this forecaster has
experienced in this area - particularly in terms of snow rates AND
duration of high snow rates.

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19 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

It’s been a crazy day here. I seen snowfall rates of one to 2 inches an hour for a solid four hours. Just when I thought the dry air would win out, we now have switched back over to heavy snow. roughly eye balling 5” here and hoping to continue to add to the amount. Hastings seem to think so. They had a great disco today. Glad you did well! 
 

Elsewhere, likely looking at another 1-3hr of hvy snow for most
areas between Hwy 6 and Hwy 92. By 6-7PM, the best snw accums will
have shifted to areas along and N of Hwy 92 where another 3-4"
will be possible. Areas along I-80 can expect about another 1-2".
When all is said and done, based on current reports and ideas
outlined above...think a significant portion of the CWA along and
north of a line from HDE to GRI to OLU will have 12-18" of snow,
perhaps higher in the ODX area. Even Hastings, which was
essentially snow free thru noon, may wind up with 10-12", which
would be very impressive. No other way to put it besides saying
this is one of the most intense bursts of snow this forecaster has
experienced in this area - particularly in terms of snow rates AND
duration of high snow rates.

 

Great. That was a fun disco to read. Our law enforcement estimate of 12” plus is pretty spot on. 

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

I have to admit my failure in cutting down DMX forecast from this morning. MARTIN (the forecaster) was DEAD on. I was wrong in calling him out. IN fact- totals will likely be less than forecasted and I called them out for being too low.

Kudos to the pros. They work for NWS for a reason-- and not me (thank goodness)

 

I've been sitting at 34 to 34.5 here in Des Moines all day with a mix that ends up to wet everything.   With the last 15 minutes we have drop to 32.2 with a slight wind change out of the north so should be snowing anytime.   

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32 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

What’s that band doing over you now and how’s the wind?? Snow has stopped here and wondering what that band will bring!

It is really coming down, with strong north winds. It is a much drier snow. All of my work clearing the driveway and sidewalks is now being covered back up. Forecast went from virtually nothing to now possibly up to 3”. If that occurs, we probably get over 15” or a little more. This is a storm we’ll remember for a long time. 

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20 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

This storm even broke Jim Flowers. Now saying he's taking down the facebook page after the bust 🤦‍♂️

What?  I just watched the video. I can’t believe anyone would blame him for a missed forecast. We all make mistakes. He is such a genuine guy, I felt so sorry for him as I watched him choke back tears. I will miss his humor and teachings about weather. I’m just really bummed out about this. 

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@Tom seeing flakes tomorrow evening??

namconus_ref_frzn_us_30.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What?  I just watched the video. I can’t believe anyone would blame him for a missed forecast. We all make mistakes. He is such a genuine guy, I felt so sorry for him as I watched him choke back tears. I will miss his humor and teachings about weather. I’m just really bummed out about this. 

Go to any social media site and watch the meteorologists get ripped apart anytime they’re wrong. It’s pretty disgusting.

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NEMI nice rippage event in the making. Classic NMI

image.png.212b2267f41bd9897aa0c1ca0ff07f2d.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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