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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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3 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Congrats to Holdrege..not a flake here in Aurora, NE so far. I know that's about to change but lord, it's laughable how the the precip refuses to fill in outside of that one band. It's either slower than modeled or we're busting on amounts. I pray it's the former 

We are getting pounded right now. Gracious. 

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4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Not liking the way radar and short range models look for my area. I’m getting pellets and Graupel at the moment. Look at this radar, dry hole plugging away…..hope it fills in fast. 

0CA24BD2-3F46-42E9-AB19-CBD8C3F7A63F.jpeg

We had that several hours ago along with snow. When it switched over, it started piling up fast. 

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Been looking at metars over NE and KS in the heavy snow over last several hours-- surprised no automation ALDARS (lightning detection without a human) are picking up any LTG. Usually it's overdone as many strikes reported by ALDARS are false-- but none in this event is odd.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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HRRR

Showing that front end thump band producing at least some snow in Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  Again rates will have to be substantial to overcome the warm surface temps.  My feeling is that even if we get some moderate snow it will have a hard time accumulating over an inch.  

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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Looks like a potential bust in the Lincoln area in particular.  The dry slot is about to move through and from the sounds of it they haven't received any snow yet.  Models also do not show the good wrap around bands that hit further west in the state.  Still time for things to change, but just looking at the radar and model trends, it doesn't look very promising.  The 18z HRRR shows about 3" for Lincoln and the forecast from the NWS was 5-10".  

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18Z 3KM NAM -- has OMA getting dry slotted. Don't know how much is all ready fallen - but this is depressing for OMA if comes to fruition -

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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If the OMA/LNK area dry slot happens-- would be one of the biggest busts I've seen in several year. Tis' the weather-- don't care how good your computer models are- mother nature will do what it does-- little win-- most get burned. Congrats to those seeing good snows!! It's tough -- enjoy it!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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We have went from snow/ sleet, to all snow, to all sleet, back to heavy snow, and now we are seeing moderate freezing rain mixed with sleet... and now here comes the FREAKING dry slot.

This storm system is turning out to be yet another in a long line of massive Winter system duds for us in Omaha and Lincoln - the joke looks like it was on us! 

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Warm air advection certainly the case here just W of DSM. Temp up to 34F. Echoes show snow-- but wlll see for sure in about 30 mins. Don't have my hopes up - other than a white ground when I leave for work tonight.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

 

Warm air advection certainly the case here just W of DSM. Temp up to 34F. Echoes show snow-- but wlll see for sure in about 30 mins. Don't have my hopes up - other than a white ground when I leave for work tonight.

I'm hoping for a few inches up here in Waterloo.  It's 35 atm. 

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It looks like the highest totals in south-central Nebraska may end up east of Holdrege where the heavy band has stalled for several hours.  Holdrege kinda got stuck west in a drier pocket after this morning's heavy burst.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It looks like the highest totals in south-central Nebraska may end up east of Holdrege where the heavy band has stalled for several hours.  Holdrege kinda got stuck west in a drier pocket after this morning's heavy burst.

Agree- Hastings is getting creamed with a P group of P0021 last hour. That's impressive for a snow event as the heated tipping bucket is usually at least 10-20% lower that a manual 8". image.thumb.png.c3dd2362affb3d78143a6c0ed658c438.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Latest RAP has DSM potentially scoring a coup d'etat-- if this happens- I will be shocked, but it's in the cards and not so far away RAP wise--  (not including wrap around)

 

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nice band of snow showing on HRRR in mby---  not supposed to be there per -NWS-- we will see, but radar trends are looking good.  Take 5" all day every day.. snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Losing a lot of QPF right now to plain old rain-- temp 32F-- but nothing freezing yet likely due to antecedent warmth and latent heat.  ---

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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