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1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm


Tom

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1 hour ago, The Snowman said:

5" feels like a good starting point for Omaha. Anywhere from 3-12" in play, but NWS Omaha's range of 4-7" makes a lot of sense.

Feeling like this system will drop a bit further south (something has to give) and pop us with 7-9" of snow in Omaha to get us to double digit snowfall for the Winter season. For some reason today I just have a gut feeling that this system has our number (maybe trying to find some optimism for once with the weather haha).  

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I believe this is only the 2nd January tornado ever in Iowa 

37F4EE1C-5957-43F7-9C73-356BDE750A8D.jpeg

From NWS DMX disco ---

The HRRR and RAP solutions regarding instability on Monday have been
all the rage on social media since their domains reached that
period. Both are anomalously high on dew point temperatures with
values in the low to mid 50s into central Iowa and both tend to over
mix the boundary layer during stratus events. Other solutions are
more conservative on both temperatures and dew points and do not
overcome the warm wedge aloft. Sounding wind profiles do have
direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on
surface based instability certainly is questionable. January
tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history,
January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast
portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard
with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong
system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15,
2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below. 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Jan 1967---     takes the cake...for an out break....

 

  Sounding wind profiles do have
direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on
surface based instability certainly is questionable. January
tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history,
January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast
portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard
with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong
system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15,
2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Quick observation now that all the 12z data is in; the northward trend that popped up over the last few days appears to have been the result of two modest but impactful shifts: weaker Canadian HP located just north of the Great Lakes, and stronger upstream ridging across the Southeast, both of which allow the low to 'lift' a little more north.

 

The last couple EPS runs are showing a little backtracking, with that Canadian high being a little stronger and upstream ridging either staying the same run-over-run or even weakening just a hair. Makes me think the pendulum has swung back a bit in terms of risk to the forecast; if these trends continue, wouldn't be a surprise to see totals for southern fringe cities (i.e. Omaha) tick back up.

1242405999_epsslp500mb.gif

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30 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Jan 1967---     takes the cake...for an out break....

 

  Sounding wind profiles do have
direction shear below 900 mb but whether that shear is acting on
surface based instability certainly is questionable. January
tornadoes have occurred on only one day in Iowa recorded history,
January 24, 1967 when 13 tornadoes occurred over the southeast
portion of the state. That event was followed up by a blizzard
with record snow accumulations over the state, thus a very strong
system. It often takes a historical type system such as Dec 15,
2021 when nearly 80 kts of flow was at 850 mb or below.

Yep that’s what I read. Couldn’t remember if it was one tornado or tornadoes had only occurred one other date.

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Bring on the chill and hopefully some moisture!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Ugg never fails, can't ever get a slam dunk for my area. This has the potential to turn into a bust or magical storm. Will see what tonights runs show. Hoping they jump on the GFS board! 

Tab4FileL.png

Yep. NWS Hastings with a very detailed write up of this. Jim Flowers sort of likes the GFS. We’ll see. 

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Heading into the event, model verification stats show the GFS Op lagging all other guidance when viewing North America 500mb fields in the 1-5 day forecast window. ECMWF and its ensembles setting the bar, which personally makes me less optimistic for a southward shift. Crazier things have happened, of course, but going into this event the GFS is on shaky ground.

all-cycles-north-america.png

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5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

nam is not good for omaha and lincoln  

Living from model to model won't do anyone any good for their mental health, especially with the NAM. I should be excited or ecstatic about this run of NAM for Des Moines area, yet, I'll take it with a mountain of salt. Perhaps that salt turns into a mountain of snow, but not banking on it after one good run. Neither should any Omaha people just bc one bad run. Hard to do, I know, but have faith. Let's share the wealth as much as we can with this one!

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