1/17 - 1/19 CO Low Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

HREF showing 1-2" hr rates in the "means" 00Z19th-- about as hard as it snows in this part of the World--

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX take three-

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Quote

Wednesday

Snow before 2pm, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 2pm and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. East northeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 22. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

You guys in NE have been waiting a LONG time for a winter storm like this and its coming together for the entire state to literally become the epicenter of heavy precip.  Nice to see the ensembles coming into agreement.  This storm is going to produce a sweet looking comma head/trowal on radar. 

0z EPS...juiced up storm as we head closer to showtime!

 

 

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

We have seen @CentralNebWeatherreel in the magnet before.  Is he going to do it again?  #thundersnow

[Grizzcoat]

accuwx model (fwiw) 12z today-

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

accuwx model (fwiw) 12z today-

Winter Storm Warning.  Accuweather upped me from 6-10" last night to 10-15" today.  Local forecasts say 5-10", but dependent on if sleet mixes in.  If it doesn't, then the higher end is possible.  I would guess that school closings will start being posted late this afternoon or this evening for tomorrow and possibly Thursday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim Flowers video. Good stuff. 
 

https://fb.watch/i6n3QhiUvY/?mibextid=v7YzmG

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z HRRR coming in hot for Central Nebraska through 35 hours.  Mercy.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z HRRR. 

[Hawkeye]

Now that the HRRR has gone north, that's pretty much it for Cedar Rapids.  We might get an inch.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

Go RAP go! LOL.  This is about as ridiculous as last night's NAM run.

 

[Grizzcoat]

3km NAM--- my bet model for Iowa---

[Grizzcoat]

12Z ICON-

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z HRW ARW

[bud2380]

We're back to the north trend again on today's models.  Yesterday's southerly shifts appear to be wrong.  GFS is the furthest north it has been.  

[Grizzcoat]

12z GFS-

[Bellona]

I dont think i can afford any more north shifts or ill be on the edge in W'loo.

[Madtown]

I was just stopping in to say the GFS went way north it seems

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

12z GFS-

Crush job in my area.

[bud2380]

This is truly Nebraska's storm.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

This is truly Nebraska's storm.

 

Great zoomed in map, thanks for posting.  I'm just southwest of Kearney.

[Bellona]

I hope you all in Nebraska get rocked! You need a big score.  I hope I do too, but, I will be happy with 6. 

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Back north the southern edge goes for here. Lucky to hit 4-5” at this point thus why the NWS kept us in a watch. But hey that would still be the biggest snowfall at my place in 2 years.

At least it’s another day closer to spring..

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Most models now look about the same for the area of heaviest snow.  

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

15Z RAP 

[Bryan1117]

30 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Back north the southern edge goes for here. Lucky to hit 4-5” at this point thus why the NWS kept us in a watch. But hey that would still be the biggest snowfall at my place in 2 years.

At least it’s another day closer to spring..

The models seem to be having issues with the ice/ sleet on the southern edge of the band… I am not buying it, have a feeling this will be mostly snow and we will get 6+ (wishful thinking, maybe).

Still 24 hours out and we have seen last minute shifts all Winter so far, we could either get dry slotted, a big snowstorm or a crippling ice storm at this point.

 

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

The models seem to be having issues with the ice/ sleet on the southern edge of the band… I am not buying it, have a feeling this will be mostly snow and we will get 6+ (wishful thinking, maybe).

Still 24 hours out and we have seen last minute shifts all Winter so far, we could either get dry slotted, a big snowstorm or a crippling ice storm at this point.

 

+1--- my thoughts exactly.

[Grizzcoat]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

12z UKMET through Noon Thursday...

2nd best model in the World, not backing down here in C.IA-- very interesting as the UKIE is TIGHT with snow.

[gosaints]

27 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

2nd best model in the World, not backing down here in C.IA-- very interesting as the UKIE is TIGHT with snow.

solid model at the 500 mb level

[gimmesnow]

What's UKIE saying for Thursday in West/Central Wisconsin? Trying to decide if a trip to Portage, WI is worth it or not for snowboarding.

[Grizzcoat]

10 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

What's UKIE saying for Thursday in West/Central Wisconsin? Trying to decide if a trip to Portage, WI is worth it or not for snowboarding.

[Bryan1117]

NWS Omaha really spit balling this one LOL... Nice range there - thinking the mixing issues on the models are causing this pretty wild range of snowfall amounts here locally.