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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Cedar Rapids also has not hit 60 degrees this month.  I think one of the local mets said something like fifteen of the last sixteen Marches have had at least one 60 degree high.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@ Tom

 

That's neat map(s). I didn't know there was sufficient data (especially on a global scale) so far back in history (approx 340 yrs ago) ?  

But yeah, that's a scary correlation with our current pattern, eh? 

 

Also - congrats on calling the New England snowstorm parade. Pretty sure you were saying that Boston might have another stretch like they experienced in '15

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

That's neat map(s). I didn't know there was sufficient data (especially on a global scale) so far back in history (approx 340 yrs ago) ?

But yeah, that's a scary correlation with our current pattern, eh?

 

Also - congrats on calling the New England snowstorm parade. Pretty sure you were saying that Boston might have another stretch like they experienced in '15

I referenced the Boston ‘15 scenario as an example of a “mini” scaled pattern that I was expecting to happen for the opening of Feb. It did happen to some degree and Chitown was near the epicenter suring that historic stretch.

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@ Jaster, during the Maunder Minimum, warm arctic = cold N.A.....can't wait to see more and more articles blaming global warming for cooling...notice how warm Alaska and south of Greenland were back then...

 

 

 

maunder_minimum_temperature.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wait a sec, I've seen a map like that! Yup, today's 12z GEFS....is this a coincidence??? Drum roll please...nope!

 

 

 

 

I love those climate change people

 

The temperature average has changed .5 degrees in the last 50 years. Clearly the climate of our 4.7 billion year old Earth has changed and life will change dramatically! The climate has always been the same before humans industrialized.

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A gorgeous evening out there. Clear to partly cloudy and temps holding in the low 30s. Falling into the 20s tonight. It remains chilly all week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Record breaking Nor'Easter "Toby" dropped 9" in 2 hours along Long Island in NY (Islip, NY to be exact)...jackpot city was Patchogue, NY with 19". While we see all these impressive late season snow storms targeting the northeast, the MW is going to take part in the action this weekend. Will this be the last??? I think not.

 

Diving into the medium and long range pattern, the next system that will likely produce a severe threat is lining up with the LRC quite well.  In LRC cycle #1, a strong shortwave developed along a boundary draped across the Plains/MW, specifically extending out of SE CO into MO/C IL/C IN.  The 00z GEFS are cleary showing a similar scenario on the table...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_21.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_29.png

 

 

Looking out farther, this storm should begin to tug down cooler weather setting the stage for another storm system around Easter weekend which fits the Nov 8th-10th system that traversed the GL's region and tugged down a major arctic shot of cold air post storm which the longer range models are definitely picking up on.  Some places are going to see several chances of snow during the opening 1-2 weeks of April.  Sadly, those wishing and hoping for Spring wx will likely have to wait.  Head to Cali or the SW or FL to escape the cold.

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N. A. Snow cover extent reaching decadal highs...interestingly, we are right behind March '13 which is a great analog for this season...hint: what were the following 2 winters like for the U.S.???  Nature setting the stage...

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

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00z GEFS Day 10-14 look a lot like the latest run of the CFSv2 April 2m temps...ughhh

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180322.201804.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif

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Friends of mine and family from NYC reported 8.2" in Central Park, NY. Not bad for this time of the year w that killer sun angle. Long Island got crushed! 10-20" amounts.

 

As far as weather in SEMI, looks very nice w sunshine and temps warming next week into the 50s, hopefully. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Rare weather in Cali. Tornadoes have been reported. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The clear cool, dry weather continues I had a low of 21° here at my house the official low at the airport looks to be 24°  This March is still on track to be only the 6th time in the last 30 years and 12th in the last 60 years to not reach 60° or better in March. And looking ahead at this time the warmest in might get all the way to the 7th of April may only be in the mid 50’s (of course we already had 60° days in February) at this time it is sunny and a cold 27° at my house.

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Friends of mine and family from NYC reported 8.2" in Central Park, NY. Not bad for this time of the year w that killer sun angle. Long Island got crushed! 10-20" amounts.

 

As far as weather in SEMI, looks very nice w sunshine and temps warming next week into the 50s, hopefully. :D

If the current forecast is correct this will be only the 6th time in the last 30 years and the 12 time in the last 60 years that Grand Rapids has not reached 60 or better in March. Of course we had 3 60° days in February this year.

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This next storm system will strike some w a Winterstorm. Chicago looks like will be spare. It will pass to the south of them, unless, it changes path. It then races SE where places near the beach on the EC will get snow :lol:. I.E., Virginia Beach. :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If the current forecast is correct this will be only the 6th time in the last 30 years and the 12 time in the last 60 years that Grand Rapids has not reached 60 or better in March. Of course we had 3 60° days in February this year.

That is Ma Nature. My area has been bone dry. Need some needed rains. Nothing looks likely until maybe next week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That is Ma Nature. My area has FINALLY been bone dry. DON'T Need some needed rains. Nothing looks likely until maybe next week.

 

..fixed (for mby)  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..fixed (for mby)  ;)

For your area, not mine. ;) Here it has been rather dry. Need some needed moisture.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Niko, on 22 Mar 2018 - 11:48 AM, said:snapback.png

That is Ma Nature. My area has FINALLY been bone dry. DON'T Need some needed rains. Nothing looks likely until maybe next week.

Fixed it back for ya! ;)

 

Btw: Winterstorm possible for some midwest cities this weekend. Luckily, we are not included. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If the current forecast is correct this will be only the 6th time in the last 30 years and the 12 time in the last 60 years that Grand Rapids has not reached 60 or better in March. Of course we had 3 60° days in February this year.

 Pretty dry here, with full sun could make 60 Monday.  

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These are pics of NJ a friend of mine emailed me.......snowpack is holding on there....with more coming from Tobi.

29432547_10211451526899247_2038216849606

 

That is the obelisk @ High Point / elevation 1803'...highest point in New Jersey at the very top of Sussex County and the state itself.

 

It is in High Point State Park and I have been up there many times.  Beautiful area and probably the coldest and snowiest spot in the entire state.

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Once again, it's in the 60s in sw Iowa and se Nebraska.  I think this is the third time in the last week.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Once again, it's in the 60s in sw Iowa and se Nebraska.  I think this is the third time in the last week.

 

What are those?? (shrugs shoulders and keeps walking)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Though I have measured just 32 inches of snow this winter and the ground has been bare since the beginning of March and there has been no measurable snow here since February 19th...that is about to change in a very big way the next 15 days....and it would not surprise me to see that 32" figure doubled by the end of March.

 

 

That doubling of the money or; more precisely...picking up 32 inches of snow between the time that quoted post was made and the end of March is going to be quite the long shot.

 

So far I've measured 10.1" new snow since the rather ambitious forecast was issued; so there is quite a ways to go.

 

The next chance of significant snow out here should be towards late Sunday night as the modeling looks a bit better each run; though the ECMWF advertises a non event...and being the best mid range model; it is to be given great consideration.

 

Yesterday much of New England thought they would see a big snow; the EC was the only model to keep them mostly dry and it was vindicated.

 

There should be some precip moving through the area this evening; it looks like rain...which would be the first rain here since November...I would ordinarily disregard the models warmth in most circumstances...but this time it has 850's above 0 C...pretty unusual around here...and I am below the 850 mb level...which is about 5000 feet a.s.l.

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Now the 18z American Global model just printed out 2 to 3.5 inches liquid equivalent in my vicinity over the next 16 days; and actually had a blizzard just getting organized at hour 384...the end of the run.

 

I usually give little credence to the GFS; but its not entirely useless; it is able to discern between very wet and very dry patterns; so odds are there should be some moisture moving through the area over the next two weeks.

 

It also has some support from some of the mid range charts.

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Now the 18z American Global model just printed out 2 to 3.5 inches liquid equivalent in my vicinity over the next 16 days; and actually had a blizzard just getting organized at hour 384...the end of the run.

 

I usually give little credence to the GFS; but its not entirely useless; it is able to discern between very wet and very dry patterns; so odds are there should be some moisture moving through the area over the next two weeks.

 

It also has some support from some of the mid range charts.

 

One thing the GFS is useful for is temperature trends; it sometimes overdoes arctic outbreaks; but overall it is fairly good at temperature trends in the mid range.

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Then, how do you explain the previous blizzards??

 

NYC proper definitely got an excellent snowstorm yesterday; around 9 to 11 inches in the city proper.

 

But LI still outdid them (and everyone)...though this was not a case of NYC doing badly; but rather the Island getting under some amazing snow bands (4 to 5 inches per hour).

 

A good arctic anticyclone to the north is always a necessity; as even polar air will not cut it...especially on the first day of spring.

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I took a look at the sun spot cycles dating back to the mid 1950's and compared it to the current declining trend of our current solar minimum and it is showing a strikingly similar pattern matching closely to the mid 1960's and late 1970's.  However, back then, we were enduring higher solar maximum's in those solar cycles compared to where we are now.  Interesting set of circumstances are aligning in the years ahead.

 

http://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png

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Just an incredible illustration of how the LRC is lining up and matching the forecasted 500mb pattern as we close out March and open April.  Back in LRC cycle #1 (Nov 1st-14th), LRC cycle # 2 (Dec 20th-Jan 4th), LRC cycle #3 (Feb 2nd-13th) and now we enter the Polar Vortex main event of this year's cycling pattern.  My goodness, if this goes to the extreme, we are going to see record cold if there is enough snow on table on Easter or just after for some folks in our sub forum.

 

Just a side note, fast forward into LRC cycle #5 and this pattern lines up to hit during the 4th of July.  I'll be the first to say this, but do you guys remember the summer of '14???  I vividly remember the pattern during the end of July for a couple of reasons that year.  #1, my sister gave birth to her first child...#2, we had a polar vortex feature spin down into the MW and the media went nuts.  What will happen if this feature happens again???  I'm not saying we'll have a PV spinning in our area like it did back then but I find interesting similarities of that season and what may happen this summer.

 

 

https://mashable.com/2014/07/10/polar-vortex-redux-redux-record-cold-july-weather-on-the-way/#nUOFYc9b7qqQ

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So far March 2018 mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 32.5° (-1.4°) it has been dry as only 0.51” of rain and melted snow has fallen there has been 4.9” of snow fall this month. While it looks like Grand Rapids will add to the rain fall total it still looks like we will not make 60° or better if that happens it would be only the 20 time in the last 80 years that it did not reach 60 or better in March.

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I took a look at the sun spot cycles dating back to the mid 1950's and compared it to the current declining trend of our current solar minimum and it is showing a strikingly similar pattern matching closely to the mid 1960's and late 1970's.  However, back then, we were enduring higher solar maximum's in those solar cycles compared to where we are now.  Interesting set of circumstances are aligning in the years ahead.

 

http://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png

 

 

As a general rule; there is an 11 (eleven) year lag between demonstrable sunspot activity (be it active or diminished) and any actual thermodynamic impact here on the surface of the earth.

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A 1400 mile or so strip of heavy snow by Winterstorm Uma better stay to my south. Need no snow here. Its Spring. Speaking of Spring, it is still chilly here. Highs not getting outta the 30s and lows near 20 tanite. Brrrr.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NYC proper definitely got an excellent snowstorm yesterday; around 9 to 11 inches in the city proper.

 

But LI still outdid them (and everyone)...though this was not a case of NYC doing badly; but rather the Island getting under some amazing snow bands (4 to 5 inches per hour).

 

A good arctic anticyclone to the north is always a necessity; as even polar air will not cut it...especially on the first day of spring.

Yes, it was a decent snowevent and for this time of the year w a killer sun angle, i'd say, it was an impressive snowstorm for the NYC Metro area. Central Park was a Winter Wonderland. Hopefully, when I go there in a couple of days for Easter, all of the snow will be gone.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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