March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

So far March 2018 mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 32.5° (-1.4°) it has been dry as only 0.51” of rain and melted snow has fallen there has been 4.9” of snow fall this month. While it looks like Grand Rapids will add to the rain fall total it still looks like we will not make 60° or better if that happens it would be only the 20 time in the last 80 years that it did not reach 60 or better in March.

March has been a chilly month, although, dry to say the least. It could have been a lot stormier this time of the year, as both airmasses cold/warm collide, which can create monster storms.

[jaster220]

I took a look at the sun spot cycles dating back to the mid 1950's and compared it to the current declining trend of our current solar minimum and it is showing a strikingly similar pattern matching closely to the mid 1960's and late 1970's.  However, back then, we were enduring higher solar maximum's in those solar cycles compared to where we are now.  Interesting set of circumstances are aligning in the years ahead.

 

http://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png

 

Noted in the SMI forum that while sunspot activity follows a set cycle and is "track able" there are other factors like flares, etc that do effect us at any given time and are pretty much random occurrences. Thus, against the backdrop of low sunspots, you can still get periods that act differently via offsetting mechanisms. Just food for thought. Nice graph and post btw..

[gimmesnow]

My hill is closed, snow going south. Thanks for all the weather discussion, I'll be back next November.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro both show possible snow systems into early April.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, thunderstorms rolling through Central Nebraska. Kind of a surprise. Getting pounded by heavy rain and strong winds.

[CentralNebWeather]

Temp just dropped 18 degrees in the last 15 minutes.

[Niko]

The GFS and Euro both show possible snow systems into early April.

I hope both models change it to "Rain Systems."

[Niko]

Currently clear skies and cold w current temp @ 28F and dropping into the upper teens for overnight lows.

[gabel23]

Wow, thunderstorms rolling through Central Nebraska. Kind of a surprise. Getting pounded by heavy rain and strong winds.

Your getting nice returns on radar! You have a rain gauge out?? I’m hoping to pick up a half inch of rain as I planted radishes and lettuce yesterday!

[CentralNebWeather]

More storms keep building. Another biggy just coming through. This has been a pleasant surprise. Lots of lightning and thunder with heavy rain. No hail yet in my backyard.

[CentralNebWeather]

Your getting nice returns on radar! You have a rain gauge out?? I’m hoping to pick up a half inch of rain as I planted radishes and lettuce yesterday!

Closing in on 1/2 inch. Raining hard at the moment so we should easily surpass .50

[Minny_Weather]

If the 18z GFS were to come true at wet dream range, we'd have 5" of powdery snow in April. lol. I love the GFS at wet dream range.

[Tom]

The nation as a whole, March opened like a Lion and will likely close out the month roaring like a Lion.  It has been a wild month of weather on both coasts this month and I'm glad to see the Cali mountains creep closer to seasonal norms in terms of snowfall picking up FEET of snow over the last couple weeks stacking up in some places 10'+.  Our friend, Mr. Polar Vortex, will greet us and it's remarkable to see how far south it will be this late in the season.

 

[Tom]

I'm becoming more and more convinced that by Easter weekend through the first 10-15 days of April our sub forum is going to have some of the most extreme weather I've seen in all of my years of tracking models for so late in the season.  The historic February wintry stretch of weather we saw across the MW is going to cycle through in about a week.  According to the LRC, this cycling pattern is on tap and all the models are pointing towards it.  Ridging will fight up from the south and major arctic air push in from the north.  Where the battle zone sets up there will be some fascinating wx and likely setting new records.  

 

My original idea was for the heat to build in the plains and push up from the south but that heat is going to be primarily backed up in the SW, although, the Plains do briefly warm considerably on Monday across KS.

 

[Niko]

Beautiful weekend on tap for SEMI. It remains on the chilly side though w temps struggling to reach that 40 degree mark for both days.

 

Btw: there are still a few patches of snow around IMBY if you can believe that.

[hlcater]

After this storm is over, I'll be satisfied with winter. Although it looks like winter is gonna try and hang on until at least the first week of April. I like this storm, but not having a single 60 degree day yet kinda sucks.

[NEJeremy]

All these epic weather patterns and forecasts with model runs not seen in years this winter and yet we’re at 16” of snow here for the year and in fact most of the forum is near normal or fairly close to either side of it for snowfall. If the long range models and forecasts had been correct, than the majority of us would be well above at this point. I’ll believe the models when they actually deliver for once.

[Tabitha]

All these epic weather patterns and forecasts with model runs not seen in years this winter and yet we’re at 16” of snow here for the year and in fact most of the forum is near normal or fairly close to either side of it for snowfall. If the long range models and forecasts had been correct, than the majority of us would be well above at this point. I’ll believe the models when they actually deliver for once.

 

My snowfall chart that I update every few weeks and post here shows that; on the whole; most cities are at normal snowfall on the season or a little below. 

 

All the Wisconsin towns are badly below; as are the Kansas and SE Nebraska towns.  Most of the rest of Nebraska hasn't done badly.

 

Minnesota is not doing too badly; Iowa was a little below average; but that doesn't factor in this current storm.  Chicago was near average; the rest of the state well below.

 

Michigan is below average; except for down around Detroit and some other parts of the LP.

 

North Dakota and South Dakota have worked their way back towards average; though the Black Hills are below average.

[gabel23]

My snowfall chart that I update every few weeks and post here shows that; on the whole; most cities are at normal snowfall on the season or a little below.

 

All the Wisconsin towns are badly below; as are the Kansas and SE Nebraska towns. Most of the rest of Nebraska hasn't done badly.

 

Minnesota is not doing too badly; Iowa was a little below average; but that doesn't factor in this current storm. Chicago was near average; the rest of the state well below.

 

Michigan is below average; except for down around Detroit and some other parts of the LP.

 

North Dakota and South Dakota have worked their way back towards average; though the Black Hills are below average.

I’m a little above average, Crazy to think just east and south of me locations have 16 inches or less.

[NEJeremy]

Another .62” of rain last night. Have had about 2.75” now in the last 7 days with more rain Monday

[Minny_Weather]

Another .62” of rain last night. Have had about 2.75” now in the last 7 days with more rain Monday

If we're not gonna get snow then at least we're getting rain to green things up. Deep freezes also become not possible as it is late March so at least we're getting Spring.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS showing snow over Nebraska Thursday with plenty of chances the week after Easter. GFS ensembles also looking pretty cold and wintry as well with snow potential. The end of the month could be pretty wild.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS showing snow over Nebraska Thursday with plenty of chances the week after Easter. GFS ensembles also looking pretty cold and wintry as well with snow potential. The end of the month could be pretty wild.

I'm not willing to buy anything that GFS is saying right now. If we get April snow I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[OKwx2k4]

Just an incredible illustration of how the LRC is lining up and matching the forecasted 500mb pattern as we close out March and open April. Back in LRC cycle #1 (Nov 1st-14th), LRC cycle # 2 (Dec 20th-Jan 4th), LRC cycle #3 (Feb 2nd-13th) and now we enter the Polar Vortex main event of this year's cycling pattern. My goodness, if this goes to the extreme, we are going to see record cold if there is enough snow on table on Easter or just after for some folks in our sub forum.

 

Just a side note, fast forward into LRC cycle #5 and this pattern lines up to hit during the 4th of July. I'll be the first to say this, but do you guys remember the summer of '14??? I vividly remember the pattern during the end of July for a couple of reasons that year. #1, my sister gave birth to her first child...#2, we had a polar vortex feature spin down into the MW and the media went nuts. What will happen if this feature happens again??? I'm not saying we'll have a PV spinning in our area like it did back then but I find interesting similarities of that season and what may happen this summer.

 

 

https://mashable.com/2014/07/10/polar-vortex-redux-redux-record-cold-july-weather-on-the-way/#nUOFYc9b7qqQ

Last week of July into early August 2009 rings a bell here too. My August Average temperature in '09 for a high was 85 with over 4" of rain. Looking far ahead, this year could have remarkable similarities to that year. That's why I brought up the AO/NAO in a question in the spring/summer thread. If there was a year where they are relevant all year, a low solar/La Nina/transitioning -QBO summer is it.

[Minny_Weather]

00Z GFS is spawning a random snowstorm across Nebraska the week after Easter. It'd be nice if it verified, but seeing as it's GFS 9 days out, I'm pretty sure it's just a wet dream.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Easter special baby!

 

[Money]

Lol if that verifies

[Tom]

For an ensemble run to see high temps AOB 32F on April 3rd/4th for such a large part of our sub forum is rather extreme if you ask me.

 

 

 

Several 00z GEFS members showing the potential wintry set up...it fits the pattern and I believe there will be something on the table...

 

[Tom]

Your getting nice returns on radar! You have a rain gauge out?? I’m hoping to pick up a half inch of rain as I planted radishes and lettuce yesterday!

A little early, don't ya think?  I used to plant seeds in trays around Jan/Feb and by the time May rolled around they were nice and big to transplant outside.  I miss those days as a kid when I was hard core into the whole gardening thing.  Now I just buy them at the store and plant them in my back yard.

[Tom]

I started an April thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1773-april-2018-observations-and-discussion/

[Tom]

Snow pack still holding on strong in the north...while a ribbon of new snow is laid down by our recent strong clipper-like system...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201803/nsm_depth_2018032505_National.jpg

[westMJim]

Yet another clear and cold morning. The low here at my house was a cold 21° and it looks like the low at the airport should come in at 22° Since March 6^th Grand Rapids has only had 2 days with a mean temperature above average. And now stands at -1.7° for the month. And it has been very dry with just a trace of rain or snow in the last 12 days and only 0.51” total for the month so far.

[westMJim]

Yet another clear and cold morning. The low here at my house was a cold 21° and it looks like the low at the airport should come in at 22° Since March 6^th Grand Rapids has only had 2 days with a mean temperature above average. And now stands at -1.7° for the month. And it has been very dry with just a trace of rain or snow in the last 12 days and only 0.51” total for the month so far.

Any time we have any kind of north wind it will be a cold wind. And the snow is deep to the north and north east.

[Tom]

Yet another clear and cold morning. The low here at my house was a cold 21° and it looks like the low at the airport should come in at 22° Since March 6^th Grand Rapids has only had 2 days with a mean temperature above average. And now stands at -1.7° for the month. And it has been very dry with just a trace of rain or snow in the last 12 days and only 0.51” total for the month so far.

Agree!  These cold mornings are getting a bit old and the fact that my furnace is still working as hard as it is in late March tells the story.

 

Central/Southern Plains have been by far the warmest overall in our sub...

 

[St Paul Storm]

A few mild days ahead after tomorrow, but the extended does not look warm at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get one more decent snow up this way. Tomorrow morning looks like a mess with rain, snow, and freezing rain. MPX says an advisory is possible. I love winter and tracking snow storms, but I’m ready for warmer weather.

[Niko]

Sunny and cold currently w temps @ 28F. Brr. Wtf, is it Spring or what?!

[Niko]

Easter special baby!

 

[gabel23]

A little early, don't ya think? I used to plant seeds in trays around Jan/Feb and by the time May rolled around they were nice and big to transplant outside. I miss those days as a kid when I was hard core into the whole gardening thing. Now I just buy them at the store and plant them in my back yard.

In the past my old man would plant radishes and lettuce around this time. We’ve had them come up and it snow on them and they would be fine. I timed it pretty well as an inch of rain fell the other day.....we shall see!

[Tom]

12z GFS flashing an Easter weekend snowstorm for the MW/GL’s on Saturday...

[Money]

12z GFS flashing an Easter weekend snowstorm for the MW/GL’s on Saturday...

GEM nails IL with this system then crushes NE/IA/WI etc a few days later