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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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http://i68.tinypic.com/a874h.jpg

 

:lol: SEMI gets nailed again?!

 

EC is in trouble again. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's just so easy for all the ingredients to come together to produce a big nor'easter.  They just had a huge one, they'll be getting another one in a few days, and then probably another one next weekend.  Meanwhile, we go years without a single major system.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking for more signs of Spring???  Well, this weekend we "Spring Forward" Sat night and loose 1 hour of sleep....later sun rise, later sunset...

 

 

Meantime, not this weekend but the following weekend, just before the Spring Solstice (which I'm eye balling a Spring Solstice Storm) there will likely be a brief intrusion (2-3 days) of warmth.  I'm expecting a hard-cutter through the Dakotas into the Upper MW region which should tug up some real nice warm weather out ahead of this system before it cools back down.  What happens after the following weekend leading up towards the Spring Solstice could set the stage for another wild looking storm.

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This post may be more focused for the central Plains posters who are looking for better chances of tracking a beneficial storm to hit their area.  The one (and I do mean 1 storm), as sad as it sounds, that I anticipate to bowl across the southern Plains is the system that back on Halloween ejected out of the 4 corners region.  However, this part of the pattern isn't expected to arrive until just beyond the 2 week period.  

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This post may be more focused for the central Plains posters who are looking for better chances of tracking a beneficial storm to hit their area.  The one (and I do mean 1 storm), as sad as it sounds, that I anticipate to bowl across the southern Plains is the system that back on Halloween ejected out of the 4 corners region.  However, this part of the pattern isn't expected to arrive until just beyond the 2 week period.  

Euro weeklies are showing something. Looks like our one and only shot at a soaker till at least mid-April.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Euro weeklies are showing something. Looks like our one and only shot at a soaker till at least mid-April.

Interesting, I haven’t seen the Euro weeklies since last Monday. Curious how today’s weeklies turn out. Cold finish to this month and cold start to April is in the cards and may set up a nice battle ground across your area which is something to look for down the road.

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Sunny and brisk w temps in the 30s. Some snow later tomorrow into Weds w minor accumulations. Some could be more substantial.

 

Big snowstorm for the EC. Winterstorm Watches posted for the NYC area northward for 6-12inches. Cant wait to see their snowfall Winter total. They are doing good so far w above normal snowfall. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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namconus_asnow_neus_26.png

 

Apparently, this model likes my area for heavy snowfall. :huh:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Can we not?

Sure..you can have it. :lol: ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today's 12z GEFS basically are listening to my thoughts for the longer range, warm period prior to the 20th, then the cold comes back after a Spring Solstice Storm....and I think the cooler weather will stick around for a little while.  Southern plains warm up bigly.

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I guess I forget that other areas of the country still have winter going on right now. Lol. Congrats on a great snow season buddy.

Thanks man...wish I can mail you some snow. Believe me, I want no more of it. Had too many snowstorms already. Looking forward to Spring and severe weather alerts. Spring mode has kicked in. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah I just hope things turn around for us out here. It's pretty dry. It feels a lot like Spring 2012 which was a nightmare of a year. If we miss out on severe weather season then I'll be even more upset. A hot and dry summer here would be the death of us.

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Yeah I just hope things turn around for us out here. It's pretty dry. It feels a lot like Spring 2012 which was a nightmare of a year. If we miss out on severe weather season then I'll be even more upset. A hot and dry summer here would be the death of us.

Your always welcomed out here my man!  Boat parties at the Play Pen bud....Oak St beach, summer festivities....fun times!

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While we see the big storms to the west and east of us in the central Great Lakes my advice (it may or may not happen) is “Beware of the Ides of March” or look for a active storm period from March 15th to the 22nd note this is just an old saying in my neck of the woods.

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Thanks man...wish I can mail you some snow. Believe me, I want no more of it. Had too many snowstorms already. Looking forward to Spring and severe weather alerts. Spring mode has kicked in. :D

I'd take about 20 dump trucks full if you could send it. :lol: Someone else can have the severe weather. I live in an area that favors night tornadoes so not as much a fan as I used to be.

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I'd take about 20 dump trucks full if you could send it. :lol: Someone else can have the severe weather. I live in an area that favors night tornadoes so not as much a fan as I used to be.

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

Attention for Tuesday night turns to the potential for a band of
accumulating snow, the location of which remains uncertain at this
time. NAM12 progs indicate a modest LLJ surge at 850mb that will
augment a 925-850mb fgen response over southeast portions of the
CWA.
Planview 850-500mb dtheta/dp indicates a very weakly stable to
weakly convectively unstable surging into the area in the wake of
the dry slot after 00z and immediately in advance of the incoming
400mb PV anomaly. Cross-sections indicate a stout fgen response
within this environment that seems certain to take on a convective
character during Tuesday night. Best approach attm seems to be to
raise pops given high confidence in the general forcing scenario but
to leave the inherited grids as is given uncertainty in location and
potential snow amounts, suffice it to say a narrow band of heavy
snow producing minor to moderate accums in a short time period is in
play during the overnight period.
Continued temps in the 30s for
Wednesday with closed low parked overhead. Chc pops for snow showers
through this time as mid-level impulses rotate through the area.

 

Here we go again. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z NAM crushes SEMI. Dang! :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I hate to move on from this last event so quickly, but GFS is trying to put together something around the 17th. GFS looks like it does not want to give into spring, at all, at least for those of us above the wisconsin/illinois and michigan/indian state lines. Something to watch as we get a little closer.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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March is a violent month. It can be all four seasons. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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RGEM is showing 5.9”/hr snowfall rates and over 2ft of snow of the region. NYC gets buried.

 

Here is 00z NAM

http://i64.tinypic.com/27yxusk.png

 

Near a foot and a half for NYC. Dang! This will be a massive snowstorm, perhaps some places will get a HECS.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm hearing the Euro weeklies have turned colder/stormier across the central CONUS for the 2nd half of March???  Pretty much lines up with the LRC pattern if it is right.  With that being said, looking out much farther into the long range, the big SW ridge should blossom right around  Easter and that is when I'd imagine a torch to set up and push up from the SW.  #SpringDelayed

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NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI425 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018MIZ055-062-063-068>070-075-076-082-083-070930-Sanilac-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-425 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightLight snow this morning tapering off around noon. Snowfallaccumulations less than 1 inch expected across most areas.Snow looks to be redeveloping early this evening and continuethrough the night. The snow looks to be be moderate to briefly heavyat times, with 2 to 5 inches expected. The exception looks to beover Monroe and Wayne counties where amounts will likely be less, asinitial early evening activity may fall as rain or wet non-accumulating snow before changeover to accumulating snow occurs..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through MondayScattered snow showers are expected Wednesday with just minoraccumulation. More significant accumulating snow appears likely onThursday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently light snow and a temp of 28F. Its going to be a snowy week.

 

Detroit currently at 57.7" of snowfall thus far this season and still more is yet to come.

 

NOAA:

 

A period of snowfall
rates of 1 inch/hr likely underneath the heavy band. With the band
expected to be very narrow, and this forecast being highly sensitive
with respect to location, will defer to day shift to issue advisory
if need be, as activity will mainly be after 00z Wednesday. The 00z
Euro is significantly lower with the QPF, but aligned up nicely with
the location offered up by GFS.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The EC will get hammered once again.......

 

 

 

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, except 10 to 15 inches across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and most of interior southern Connecticut. Locally higher amounts are possible. * WHERE...New York City, Northeast New Jersey, The Lower Hudson Valley, Southwestern Connecticut, Middlesex, Nassau and northwestern Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. &&

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6z NAM delivers some very heavy snow tonight for SEMI. Watches and warnings will be posted by noon most likely if this continues.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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#winterniko continues..

 

A 1/2 to 1-1/2" of snow coated SWMI this morning. The same snowfall in late Nov or early Dec gets me pumped for the holidays and more serious snows ahead. But at this point it's warming and melting almost immediately so It's welcome has worn off. Would much rather have sun and blue skies. Doesn't even need to be warm. Last weekend was great. This month is reminding me of what I hated about last winter..namely it wasn't really winter and it wasn't really spring either. Just an extended season of brownness. It doesn't help to see peeps out west and out east again getting nailed. That's at least exciting stuff. And uggh at 3 more weeks of this, lol 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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#winterniko continues..

 

A 1/2 to 1-1/2" of snow coated SWMI this morning. The same snowfall in late Nov or early Dec gets me pumped for the holidays and more serious snows ahead. But at this point it's warming and melting almost immediately so It's welcome has worn off. Would much rather have sun and blue skies. Doesn't even need to be warm. Last weekend was great. This month is reminding me of what I hated about last winter..namely it wasn't really winter and it wasn't really spring either. Just an extended season of brownness. It doesn't help to see peeps out west and out east again getting nailed. That's at least exciting stuff. And uggh at 3 more weeks of this, lol 

:lol: ;) 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm hearing the Euro weeklies have turned colder/stormier across the central CONUS for the 2nd half of March???  Pretty much lines up with the LRC pattern if it is right.  With that being said, looking out much farther into the long range, the big SW ridge should blossom right around  Easter and that is when I'd imagine a torch to set up and push up from the SW.  #SpringDelayed

 

I sure hope so, I'd really like to ride my new snowboard for more than 4 days before next year.

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