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Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System


Tom

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Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems. lol

Give it a rest. We average over 10” in March. I’d say we’ll get another one, at least. Fortunately for you we won’t get this one. I think that might push you over the edge for some reason.

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Temps are so marginal and with highs near 60F the day before its going to be difficult to accumulate on the streets/sidewalks.  This is the type of low ratio/heart attack snow that gets plastered to everything in site.  Anyhow, the Euro is trending towards what I'd through it would and generating its own cold air.  Just give me another 6" to get to normal snowfall and I'll be content.

 

Take a look at the total precip...pretty insane amount of liquid...again, it's absolutely amazing how close this run is getting towards the track and precip shield in the LRC cycle # 1.  Gotta love nature.

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Nice bullseye by Tom!!

​I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty narrow snow band. Gonna be heavy wet snow for sure.

​Of note: Look at the qpf and snowfall map. That's some low ratio stuff.

That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...

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That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...

 

Doesn't the shift from SW to W mean that it's going to be less rain and more snow? I imagine it's sucking up less warm air from the south this way. I remember this thing coming very strongly from the south. And that map seems to imply it'll be heading west.

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Per Ryan's maps it would suggest insane snowfall rates around here at HR 102...on top of that, it would mainly be a daytime event...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_96.png

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_102.png

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_108.png

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018022512/conus/ecmwf_ptype_conus_114.png

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Lol relying on a storm making its own cold air is never fun. Several ensembles have the snow over eastern ne

Nobody said they are "relying" on anything, just stating a fact that storms this strong do in fact generate their own cold air.  

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EPS trends over the last 3 days clearly showing a stronger and colder 850 trend...

Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lol

The only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much.

 

Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback.

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Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off.

I agree with you and Tom. Late Feb/early March is still ideal time for cold air to get into this system. Most areas may be above freezing this week but it’s not like it’s a torch. I think there will be a few nice snow hits with this for sure. Everyone ESE of here in play.

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The only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much.

 

Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback.

Awaiting Craigs next meltdown...

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