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Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System


Tom

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NAM with an amped solution which is different than 12z/18z runs

 

990 NW of STL at 84

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018022600&fh=84

Hard to believe it when its:

 

A) The 84hr NAM

B ) It was showing barely an open wave the last run.

 

Lots of time left on this one yet.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Ok I get it, i deserve every bit of that has come towards me in this topic. Can we just move on now? 

 

What I don't get is how this is a perfect track for eastern Nebraska yet the main show forms just east. 

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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So, the 00z nam and ICON are more in phase, the GFS a tad less, the GDPS a tad more.  Expect more of this for another day.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This sounds like one of those situations where you won't find out until the night before what it will do. 

 

Well, in the next day or two we should have a better idea of how well the northern and southern waves are aligned.  We just need the northern wave to not speed out ahead.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How does the precip look on Ukie?

 

The 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday UK maps never showed up, and, unfortunately, this evening's 00z maps are not showing, either.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro slows down the northern wave further, storm looks very similar to the 12z.  I'd still love to see the 980 mb low it was showing a couple days ago :)

 

This is going to be a fun system.  First, it wraps up over our forum, then the energy slides east and re-wraps up off southern New England.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_greatlakes_84.png

ecmwf_ptype_slp_greatlakes_90.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_108.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_108.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This could get interesting around here.  Too bad we don't have colder temps around.  Nice write up from LOT:

 

 

 

Taking the latest suite of operational guidance verbatim, looks
like moderate to locally heavy rain will develop Wednesday night
and continue into Thursday. As a deepening surface low tracks from
central IL 12Z Thursday to northern IN by 18Z, very strong N to
NNE winds would develop resulting in strengthening cold air
advection, which in combination with dynamic cooling would result
in rain within a pronounce TROWAL region flipping over to a heavy
wet snow. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF would support
sustained winds of 30kt+ with mean mixed layer winds over 40kt,
with even stronger winds along the lake front. The potential for
high end gale/near storm force N to NNE winds would also pose a
substantial lakeshore flood threat. Just to make things more
interesting, the ECMWF and GFS both advect very steep mid level
lapse rates northeast into the mid level dry intrusion, which
could result in sufficient instability for isolated thunderstorms
within the TROWAL and a threat for thundersnow.
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Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts.

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00z EPS removed the snow out of N IL and focusing it more into WI/SE MN into MI...its obvious the EPS is having trouble trying to figure this one out with run to run inconsistencies.  Expect the same today into tomorrow...either way, this is still looking like a heavy precip producer adding to the already wet conditions we have been having of late.

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