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Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System


Tom

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Once AGAIN, SEMI makes off with the best goods..tho that 12z NAM is more generous for SWMI back my way. Looking good to hit 60" for mby

 

attachicon.gif20180228 7pm ICast map for Thu the 1st.gif

You are sitting pretty and I can easily see amounts nearing 8-12"+ towards your area and 6-12" for my vicinity. Models are still not in complete agreement, but they are starting to see this unfolding into a major snowstorm. Friday mornings commute will be a nightmare.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Once AGAIN, SEMI makes off with the best goods..tho that 12z NAM is more generous for SWMI back my way. Looking good to hit 60" for mby

 

attachicon.gif20180228 7pm ICast map for Thu the 1st.gif

W no doubt. Probably surpass it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You are sitting pretty and I can easily see amounts nearing 8-12"+ towards your area and 6-12" for my vicinity. Models are still not in complete agreement, but they are starting to see this unfolding into a major snowstorm. Friday mornings commute will be a nightmare.

Riding the NAM plus some or what??

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Lol now we get to hear jester and niko brag for the hundredth time this year

 

hahaha-cute

 

Like they say, if ya got 'em smoke 'em

 

I'm not really bragging about a 1-3 "storm" for mby. As for anything that begins with an "N" going overboard I can't control that.. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM 3km loop at least "looks" like a snowstorm over my way. That's a ton of back-building..not sure I can buy that tbh

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh30-41.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking at the EURO thermals looks like the highest amount on the EURO are probably around 4 inches in Detroit.

 

of 'crete no doubt

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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SRangers are amped and saying "stay tuned SMI" 

 

Yep, I'd be raving not ranting if this verified:

 

20180228 12z WRF-ARW2 snow map.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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He will always be Jasper to Me...

 

For all the times peeps took it to be that, I almost wish it was so.. :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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He will always be Jasper to Me...

 

Since you seem to have "world history in a bottle", is there any truth to the rumor that the Earth has been and is now passing thru the "galactic ring" (of dust/particles/debri idk??) and that's the actual cause of all this "warm earth" period. Thus, it's a natural cycle tho I'm clueless on the frequency of such a thing tbh. Kinda like planetary precession, you'd have to be around quite a few life-times to witness just (1) cycle, lol, so just how did the ancients take it into account??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Since you seem to have "world history in a bottle", is there any truth to the rumor that the Earth has been and is now passing thru the "galactic ring" (of dust/particles/debri idk??) and that's the actual cause of all this "warm earth" period. Thus, it's a natural cycle tho I'm clueless on the frequency of such a thing tbh. Kinda like planetary precession, you'd have to be around quite a few life-times to witness just (1) cycle, lol, so just how did the ancients take it into account??

 

Most debris from space burns up in the atmosphere; and even if does work its way down to the surface; chances of it landing on someone's head are rather slim.

 

As far as it influencing terrestrial thermodynamics; that would seem to be a rather long leap.

 

The earth has been moving through space for an extended spell; but the essential external determinant for temperature and weather in general has and always will be the sun.

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That Low is bouncing around like a "super ball" not knowing where its going to end up. Model mayhem continues.

 

Regardless, un-phased weak sauce trends continue to plague this winter. When we had cold, it was too over-whelming, then it's flipped to these torchy stretches... moving along then  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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^ That was one of the better runs that we have seen around this area in a long time. I knew looking at this yesterday that this was just a tease but to go from that run to nothing is pretty incredible.

 

It is, and her comment post was correct about those who developed this/these models. Almost as bad as the Euro trolling SWMI and mby with 24-30" several runs in a row, to then become nada (tho Meso's brought back the 4-6" storm that did verify so not a complete whiffster)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Does not reflect too terribly well upon those who designed that model..

 

What she said

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR goes bold..

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
255 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074-010400-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0013.180301T1400Z-180302T0300Z/
Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-
Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids,
Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing,
South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson
255 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow. Snow will become heavy at times.
Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions from late
morning through the afternoon and evening, including during the
evening commute on Thursday. Be prepared for significantly reduced
visibilities at times.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Most debris from space burns up in the atmosphere; and even if does work its way down to the surface; chances of it landing on someone's head are rather slim.

 

As far as it influencing terrestrial thermodynamics; that would seem to be a rather long leap.

 

The earth has been moving through space for an extended spell; but the essential external determinant for temperature and weather in general has and always will be the sun.

 

Now recall how I wrote that the weather models are lacking for two reasons:

 

1/ They cannot account for all the factors that influence weather

 

2/ Those who design the models are not cognizant of all the factors that materially influence weather.

 

The second point is particularly noteworthy relative to the topic you raised. 

 

There is a mounting body of evidence to support the thus hitherto unexplored realm of other bodies in the solar system materially influencing earth's sensible weather...this would include our Moon...as well as the nearby planets...Mercury, Venus, Mars, & Jupiter.

 

Though it would seem, at first glance, an absurdity to draw a nexus between the motions of the other planets and the machinations of the earth's atmosphere...many other scientific Truths were likewise deemed practical absurdities...before the Light of Truth was permitted to shine in the eyes of the beholders.

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GRR goes bold..

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

255 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

 

MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074-010400-

/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0013.180301T1400Z-180302T0300Z/

Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-

Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-

Including the cities of Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids,

Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing,

South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson

255 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST

THURSDAY...

 

* WHAT...Rain changing to snow. Snow will become heavy at times.

Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Michigan.

 

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions from late

morning through the afternoon and evening, including during the

evening commute on Thursday. Be prepared for significantly reduced

visibilities at times.

With each model run snow even in Michigan is shrinking. they will probably end up pulling it early.

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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With each model run snow even in Michigan is shrinking. they will probably end up pulling it early.

Prolly regretted it just 5 mins after they pulled the trigger

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM 3km loop at least "looks" like a snowstorm over my way. That's a ton of back-building..not sure I can buy that tbh

 

attachicon.gifnam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh30-41.gif

It looks like a raging snowstorm. Looks like my area starts as snow and ends as snow. :huh:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Riding the NAM plus some or what??

Its a very dynamic system and it has the possibility to really give someone some substantial accumulations.

 

NOAA:

High resolution models from the 12Z run

such as the 3 km NAM, WRF-NMM, and WRF-ARW all depict a strong

response for a few hours during the evening in a very dynamic and

low stability environment. The low pressure system then rapidly

deepens while exiting to our east which quickly exhausts remaining

forcing over SE Michigan. Snow is then finished off in a general 3-5

inch accumulation that is still subject to future adjustments that

could be substantial in both amount and location.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Its a very dynamic system and it has the possibility to really give someone some substantial accumulations.

 

NOAA:

High resolution models from the 12Z run

such as the 3 km NAM, WRF-NMM, and WRF-ARW all depict a strong

response for a few hours during the evening in a very dynamic and

low stability environment. The low pressure system then rapidly

deepens while exiting to our east which quickly exhausts remaining

forcing over SE Michigan. Snow is then finished off in a general 3-5

inch accumulation that is still subject to future adjustments that

could be substantial in both amount and location.

You mentioned 6-12+. I have my doubts.

 

It is a very dynamic system that lacks cold air...

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You mentioned 6-12+. I have my doubts.

 

It is a very dynamic system that lacks cold air...

Actually, I think I have a shot at those accumulations. My lows drop tonight to near freezing. Tbh, I would not be surprised if precipitation starts off as snow and ends as snow IMBY. Once this system starts moving east, it will quickly intensify. I am expecting watches to be posted in the am hour (4am discussion). It will be a fun storm to watch, no matter what the outcome will be. Lots of changes can still occur and I end up with nothing. IMHO, this is looking like a raging snowstorm for some. The question is, who gets in on the fun. The more east you are, the better you stand.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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