March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Two days ago the GFS was showing some lowland snow for next Tuesday...

 

 

 

Now it has come around to an ECMWF type solution.    The GFS has been too aggressive beyond day 7 on most runs lately.   It has been changing its tune once it gets within 7 days.

 

[Phil]

The ECMWF has been too bullish with the ULLs.

 

And the GFS has been too bearish with them.

 

In other words, typical model biases in play. Nothing to write home about.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF has been too bullish with the ULLs.

 

And the GFS has been too bearish with them.

 

In other words, typical model biases in play. Nothing to write home about.

 

I was typing up a letter to my mother just now about this... now what am I going to do?   

[Phil]

The next 5 days on the 00z GFS are fairly troughy. The ECMWF did have the ULL too far west/cut off from streamflow vs reality. The GFS was too progressive. So again, typical stuff.

 

[Timmy]

Been on the big island since Saturday and this is the first sunset, and it didn’t disappoint. I think all the bad vibes you guys were sending tim’s way for his trip made it to the wrong Tim...

 

Edit: Not sure why this dumb forum insists on flipping my photos sideways... but I’m on vacation and I don’t care to flip it.

[TT-SEA]

But I do think there will be an organized trough and some colder air around day 8 or 9... even the EPS has been showing this for a several days.   

 

A broken clock is right twice a day.   

[Phil]

Still weird not seeing a giant vortex over Greenland. I’m not adjusted to it yet.

[TT-SEA]

Been on the big island since Saturday and this is the first sunset, and it didn’t disappoint. I think all the bad vibes you guys were sending tim’s way for his trip made it to the wrong Tim...

 

Sunsets are awesome there.   

 

Hope it improves for the rest of your trip.  

[TT-SEA]

The next 5 days on the 00z GFS are fairly troughy. The ECMWF did have the ULL too far west/cut off from streamflow vs reality. The GFS was too progressive. So again, typical stuff.

 

 

 

The blended mean always looks like a deep trough in this type of ULL pattern.

 

The reality in the Seattle area (and most of western WA) is likely going to be 5 days of partly to mostly sunny skies with normal temps and basically dry.  

[TT-SEA]

Been on the big island since Saturday and this is the first sunset, and it didn’t disappoint. I think all the bad vibes you guys were sending tim’s way for his trip made it to the wrong Tim...

 

Edit: Not sure why this dumb forum insists on flipping my photos sideways... but I’m on vacation and I don’t care to flip it.

 

I typed in that street name and did a google street view and without even scrolling it was the exact view in your picture.  

[ShawniganLake]

Nice day today. Breezy sunshine with temps in the low 50s.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 38 this evening.  Hard to believe it was in the 60s at this time two nights ago.

[snow_wizard]

Still weird not seeing a giant vortex over Greenland. I’m not adjusted to it yet.

 

It would appear we have gone through a major reshuffle.  Probably going to see a lot of cold intrusions throughout this big solar minimum.

[Timmy]

I typed in that street name and did a google street view and without even scrolling it was the exact view in your picture.

Haha, nice now you can kill us in our sleep

[TT-SEA]

Haha, nice now you can kill us in our sleep

 

[Timmy]

[Phil]

It would appear we have gone through a major reshuffle. Probably going to see a lot of cold intrusions throughout this big solar minimum.

I’m in agreement there. And these next few years are only an appetizer compared to the bigger Niña winters upcoming during the early 2020s.

[TT-SEA]

I’m in agreement there. And these next few years are only an appetizer compared to the bigger Niña winters upcoming during the early 2020s.

 

This looks similar to solar cycle 14...

 

Solar cycle 14 was the fourteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.^[1][2] The solar cycle lasted 11.5 years, beginning in January 1902 and ending in July 1913. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 107.1, in February 1906 (the lowest since the Dalton Minimum), and the starting minimum was 4.5.^[3] During the minimum transit from solar cycle 14 to 15, there were a total of 1023 days with no sunspots (the second highest recorded of any cycle to date)

 

 

Looks like there was an extended Nina period from 1907 through 1911... but then during the extended minimum period there was mostly ENSO neutral conditions.

 

There were some gorgeous summers in this area during the deep minimum.

 

Here is a sample from the summer of 1914... this is about as good as it gets around here.   I have to believe that the deep minimum and 1,023 days with no sunspots resulted in lots of blocking patterns around the globe.   Assuming that a deep minimum automatically means cold and wet summers around here is probably a mistake.  

 

[Jesse]

00z sure went gross for early next week. It’s way warmer than even the Euro now. Hopefully an outlier. Let us not forget that it was showing mid-60s for Portland tomorrow and Friday just a handful of days ago.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=331091

[TT-SEA]

00z sure went gross for early next week. It’s way warmer than even the Euro now. Hopefully an outlier. Let us not forget that it was showing mid-60s for Portland tomorrow and Friday just a handful of days ago.

 

So cool nights and sunny pleasant days is now gross?     

 

Gross is endless warm rain.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This looks similar to solar cycle 14...

 

Solar cycle 14 was the fourteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.^[1][2] The solar cycle lasted 11.5 years, beginning in January 1902 and ending in July 1913. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 107.1, in February 1906 (the lowest since the Dalton Minimum), and the starting minimum was 4.5.^[3] During the minimum transit from solar cycle 14 to 15, there were a total of 1023 days with no sunspots (the second highest recorded of any cycle to date)

 

 

Looks like there was an extended Nina period from 1907 through 1911... but then during the extended minimum period there was mostly ENSO neutral conditions.

 

There were some gorgeous summers in this area during the deep minimum.

 

Here is a sample from the summer of 1914... this is about as good as it gets around here. I have to believe that the deep minimum and 1,023 days with no sunspots resulted in lots of blocking patterns around the globe. Assuming that a deep minimum automatically means cold and wet summers around here is probably a mistake.

 

Is that for SEA? I wonder what it looked like for PDX.

[Jesse]

Is that for SEA? I wonder what it looked like for PDX.

108 every day. Awesome summer!

[TT-SEA]

Is that for SEA? I wonder what it looked like for PDX.

No... its from my area east of Seattle.

[Jesse]

Thankfully it appears the 00z was a warm outlier for early next week.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is cutting off the low way to the west next week. Probably going to be a cold run for late next week... but can you trust the ECMWF when it cuts off a low so far to the west?

[Phil]

This looks similar to solar cycle 14...

 

Solar cycle 14 was the fourteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began.^[1][2] The solar cycle lasted 11.5 years, beginning in January 1902 and ending in July 1913. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 107.1, in February 1906 (the lowest since the Dalton Minimum), and the starting minimum was 4.5.^[3] During the minimum transit from solar cycle 14 to 15, there were a total of 1023 days with no sunspots (the second highest recorded of any cycle to date)

 

 

Looks like there was an extended Nina period from 1907 through 1911... but then during the extended minimum period there was mostly ENSO neutral conditions.

 

There were some gorgeous summers in this area during the deep minimum.

 

Here is a sample from the summer of 1914... this is about as good as it gets around here. I have to believe that the deep minimum and 1,023 days with no sunspots resulted in lots of blocking patterns around the globe. Assuming that a deep minimum automatically means cold and wet summers around here is probably a mistake.

 

The solar cycles are indeed similar, but the climate system’s state of operation was vastly different back then compared to now. The internal resonance matters just as much as the external forcing.

[TT-SEA]

The solar cycles are indeed similar, but the climate system’s state of operation was vastly different back then compared to now. The internal resonance matters just as much as the external forcing.

So its warmer now?

 

You keep saying we are going back to a pre-1950 climate state.

[Phil]

So its warmer now?

That’s one of the many differences. Listing them all would take me hours.

 

You keep saying we are going back to a pre-1950 climate state.

We’re already heading that way. Theoretically, and assuming our paleoclimate assumptions are correct, we’re probably closer to an early/mid 1500s regime (with some MWP sprinkled in) than we are an early 1900s regime. At least as of now.

[TT-SEA]

Seeing signs of our late month warm spell at the end of the ECMWF run.

 

I think that might be related to larger scale forcing and not related to how it resolves next week.

[TT-SEA]

That’s one of the many differences. Listing them all would take me hours.

 

 

We’re already heading that way. Theoretically, and assuming our paleoclimate assumptions are correct, we’re probably closer to an early/mid 1500s regime (with some MWP sprinkled in) than we are an early 1900s regime. At least as of now.

I don't have daily records from the early 1500s!

 

I assume you will tell me that tree records indicate it was in the 40s and raining all summer... every summer.

[Phil]

I don't have daily records from the early 1500s!

 

I assume you will tell me that tree records indicate it was in the 40s and raining all summer... every summer.

There was actually a transient but sharp global warming period during the 1500s. Of course it terminated into the next phase of the LIA in a metaphorical heartbeat during the 1570s/1580s.

[TT-SEA]

There was actually a transient but sharp global warming period during the 1500s. Of course it terminated into the next phase of the LIA in a metaphorical heartbeat during the 1570s/1580s.

Interesting.

[Phil]

FWIW, 2001 is still the most frequently-referenced CPC analog this year. Shows up again @ 00z.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

It's 32 degrees colder here than it was two mornings ago with a temp of 30.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 this morning

[Jesse]

32 here with frost and another nice sunrise.

[Front Ranger]

Low of 26 at OLM. Haven't calculated their average low for the past 30 days, but I'm sure it's quite impressive.

[TT-SEA]

32 here with frost on the roof and my son's car.

[MossMan]

30 frosty degrees this morning.