March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Cue Dewey Jesus joke.

He died.

 

Not funny.

[GHweatherChris]

We are on a road trip for spring break, drove to The Oregon Vortex today, gorgeous weather, mid 70s and sunny. Temp peaked at 77 in the truck before climbing the hills on the Redwood Highway to Crescent City after, will be here through tomorrow and then take 4 days to drive up the coast towards home.

[Deweydog]

We are on a road trip for spring break, drove to The Oregon Vortex today, gorgeous weather, mid 70s and sunny. Temp peaked at 77 in the truck before climbing the hills on the Redwood Highway to Crescent City after, will be here through tomorrow and then take 4 days to drive up the coast towards home.

Watch out for those roadside overlooks...

[Phil]

The SSW/-NAM helped cool the Arctic after the second week of February (shut off warm advection).

 

The result has been a thickening of the icepack. Nice jump in overall volume over the last month.

 

 

[Phil]

Of course, the summer weather pattern matters. The month of August in particular has featured exceptionally hostile circulatory conditions for the last few decades, with no exceptions since 1996.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Watch out for those roadside overlooks...

Most fascinating news story in the pnw since Christian Longo.

[MossMan]

[Phil]

I still like a transition out of this pattern during the second half of April.

 

Tropical forcing flips from very niño-esque (now) back to more niña-esque (after April 10th).

 

 

[Jesse]

Pleasant end to March. 63/41 here. PDX hit 64.

 

Hard to believe PDX's record MIN/MAX of 49 might be in play tomorrow. Going to be quite the crash.

[Phil]

This early April period should have been a ridgefest. The Aleutian low/Pacific jet is a powerhouse.

 

However, the downstream western ridge response is being thwarted by the -NAM/-NAO (high latitude blocking feature). I didn’t expect it to resurface this late into the game.

 

Residual SSW effects on the AAM budget ftw. Equatorward wavetrain press.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mowed today, probably didn’t even need to yet, but it was a nice day.

 

Down to 38 already under clear skies.

[GHweatherChris]

Watch out for those roadside overlooks...

?

[MossMan]

?

http://komonews.com/news/local/search-continues-for-three-missing-hart-children-after-deadly-california-crash-03-31-2018

[Phil]

This early April period should have been a ridgefest. The Aleutian low/Pacific jet is a powerhouse.

 

However, the downstream western ridge response is being thwarted by the -NAM/-NAO (high latitude blocking feature). I didn’t expect it to resurface this late into the game.

 

Residual SSW effects on the AAM budget ftw. Equatorward wavetrain press.

 

So, if this tropical forcing can’t pop a western ridge, then the flip to Aleutian ridge/-PNA during the second half of April will probably make it even harder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

?

Murder suicide

 

Well...Let's just say the circumstances are very suspicious. 

[GHweatherChris]

Murder suicide

 

Well...Let's just say the circumstances are very suspicious.

Oh D**n

[SilverFallsAndrew]

522 thickness line makes it to PDX Monday morning. 

[Jesse]

Most fascinating news story in the pnw since Christian Longo.

 

Tragic might be a better word.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh d**n

 

This report just came out...WOW.

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/03/hart_family_deadly_crash_speed.html#incart_big-photo

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tragic might be a better word.

 

Well of course it is tragic, but it is also fascinating. 

[MossMan]

This report just came out...WOW.

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2018/03/hart_family_deadly_crash_speed.html#incart_big-photo

Wow is right.

[Jesse]

Bright moon out there. Down to 50.

[GHweatherChris]

Tragic might be a better word.

Just a straight sad and dissappointing situation, those kids didn't deserve this, no kids do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 36, much cooler evening than I was expecting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to end March with only one low above 36.

[MossMan]

Going to end March with only one low above 36.

That’s impressive!

[Phil]

Pressure washer. And -NAO.

 

[WeatherArchive]

Usually -NAO on the east coast is either warm and dry or warm n wet for the PNW. (depending on other factors).  Not this kind of cool wave.

[WeatherArchive]

Going to end March with only one low above 36.

? Only one? I am sure you had more then that?  The night before last was pretty warm around midnight.  Actually the last two nights was 33F.  One of the nights recently though it was pretty mild and cloudy most of it.

[WeatherArchive]

This report just came out...WOW.

 

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northAwest-news/index.ssf/2018/03/hart_family_deadly_crash_speed.html#incart_big-photo

Always beware of Deadman's Curve. Don't mess around. 

[Jesse]

? Only one? I am sure you had more then that? The night before last was pretty warm around midnight. Actually the last two nights was 33F. One of the nights recently though it was pretty mild and cloudy most of it.

He lives at 1,600’.

[WeatherArchive]

He lives at 1,600’.

Near the pull off viewpoint or more back in?

[Phil]

Usually -NAO on the east coast is either warm and dry or warm n wet for the PNW. (depending on other factors). Not this kind of cool wave.

Not to be rude, but that’s largely a myth. It really depends on the season, and type of block. A west based NAO (of either sign) exerts much greater influence on the PNW/BC than an east based one. Then there’s the question of seasonality and other peripheral forcings.

 

For instance, in JFM, a -NAO tends to correlate with cooler and drier weather across BC/PNW overall, while a +NAO tends to correlate with warmer/wetter conditions during that timeframe.

 

However, in OND, there is no long term correlation between the NAO and PNW/BC temperatures or precipitation. At least nothing consistent. However, in more recent decades, the +NAO favors wetter conditions, while the -NAO favors drier conditions. Still no temperature correlation that I can find.

 

In JAS, the precipitation tendencies reverse, w/ a -NAO correlating to cooler/wetter conditions across BC/PNW, while a +NAO usually features warm/dry conditions. In recent decades, west-based summer -NAO blocks have almost always corresponded to PNW/BC troughing.

 

During AMJ, there is no long term correlation between BC/PNW precipitation and the NAO, however a -NAO during this timeframe usually features cooler temperatures regionally, while a +NAO usually features warmer temperatures.

[Jesse]

Near the pull off viewpoint or more back in?

In the cavern under North Falls.

[WeatherArchive]

In the cavern under North Falls.

There is actually a bad road that goes to Shelburg Falls open only in summer for obvious reasons so I wonder if he goes back there or lives back there and has a permit/pass,

 

Sorry for bumping this but I was serious in my reply.   I was wondering if he lived on that. We actually went on it once to the backside of the falls and it was hell but worth the scenery..  It was back in the 09 thru 11 trend whichever was the wettest  Spring that had unusual low snow.  

[WeatherArchive]

Not to be rude, but that’s largely a myth. It really depends on the season, and type of block. A west based NAO (of either sign) exerts much greater influence on the PNW/BC than an east based one. Then there’s the question of seasonality and other peripheral forcings.

 

For instance, in JFM, a -NAO tends to correlate with cooler and drier weather across BC/PNW overall, while a +NAO tends to correlate with warmer/wetter conditions during that timeframe.

 

However, in OND, there is no long term correlation between the NAO and PNW/BC temperatures or precipitation. At least nothing consistent. However, in more recent decades, the +NAO favors wetter conditions, while the -NAO favors drier conditions. Still no temperature correlation that I can find.

 

In JAS, the precipitation tendencies reverse, w/ a -NAO correlating to cooler/wetter conditions across BC/PNW, while a +NAO usually features warm/dry conditions. In recent decades, west-based summer -NAO blocks have almost always corresponded to PNW/BC troughing.

 

During AMJ, there is no long term correlation between BC/PNW precipitation and the NAO, however a -NAO during this timeframe usually features cooler temperatures regionally, while a +NAO usually features warmer temperatures.

So usually we have more westerly flow during summers under west based -NAO's then +?  Is the summers during the 2008-12 periods a west based -NAO dominance for the majority?  It makes sense that west based ones would do it as it's closer to the USA jet stream patterns to influence where east based ones I think would effect the UK/Europe weather patterns more.

[Phil]

So usually we have more westerly flow during summers under west based -NAO's then +? Is the summers during the 2008-12 periods a west based -NAO dominance for the majority? It makes sense that west based ones would do it as it's closer to the USA jet stream patterns to influence where east based ones I think would effect the UK/Europe weather patterns more.

Yeah, the summers of 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016 were largely -NAO. Though August 2012 flipped around a bit.

 

The summers of 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017 were largely +NAO, though it depends which index you use since 500mb can make for deceptive representation of wavenumbers in August and September. Especially for niño years like 2015.

[ShawniganLake]

March ended up -0.9F on the mean. Precip was 40% of normal here.