East and Gulf Coast Weather 2018

[Andie]

Remarkable early Fall weather all around.

 

Texas is getting plenty of rain. Downpours, flash flooding all around N Tx. Very dark skies. We have a week of this ahead. I’ve already received over 1.50” heavy rain this a.m.

 

Hopefully Tx has dodged the Tropical Storm/ Hurricane season.

[Phil]

First snowfall of the winter @ Snowshoe, WV. Now freezing fog and 40mph winds up there.

 

Second front moved thru here this morning. Cool rain mixed with graupel during the start of the dry air advection. Now partly sunny and breezy as of 11:15AM..54/47, W/NW winds gusting ~ 30mph.

[Andie]

What a switch on national weather this week!

 

Almost 2hrs after my last post we've received another 1 inch of rain.

 

That 2.50" just this morning. Still dark out and raining. Glad I got that yard work done yesterday morning !

[Andie]

The day's totals. Some areas more and stormier

 

Currently 62*

3.50" rain

 

29.94 in

Visibility 9 mi.

Clouds

Overcast 700 ft

Dew Point 58 °F

Humidity 91%

[Andie]

Temps dropped from 80* to a record setting 41*.

 

These are Dectemps for DFW area.

 

1.50” rain since midnight.

[Phil]

Today was cloudy, misty, and mild with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Some squally rains in the AM hours too.

 

Next front is approaching from the west now..looks pretty sharp as of 630pm w/ the pencil-thin convective line along it. Winds to ~50mph are already occurring in the mountains. Could get gusty here after midnight.

 

Tomorrow looks cool, breezy, and sunny. Finally some autumn-like weather!

[Phil]

Gusting in the 30-35mph range behind the front. A rush of cool, dry air was apparent with the first gust..feels great out there.

[Andie]

Rain overnight, still raining through the day.

 

1.50" since midnight my location. Total here the past 3 days 6.50"

[Phil]

Downsloping in a big way right now..highs will probably push 70*F before the dry cold front moves through this afternoon.

 

Right now it’s a 63/37, which is the lowest dewpoint in over half a year..feels almost desert-like. Winds are gusty out of the west at ~ 30mph, should switch to NW this afternoon and increase to ~ 40mph.

[Andie]

Still raining. We have 3/4" so far today. Rain is all the wat back to south central Texas. So, yeah...more ont he way.

 

This looks like it will be a soggy fall and winter.

[Phil]

Wind underperformed today, but the dry air feels great.

 

Could see our first freeze within the next few weeks.

[Phil]

Low of 40.6*F this morning. Heaven on Earth.

 

Less windy today, and not a cloud in the sky.

[Andie]

More rain on the way tomorrow.

 

[Phil]

First frost of the year! Dropped to 35.4*F, coldest temperature since mid-April. A half-year ago.

[Andie]

[Phil]

Looks like they finally fixed/replaced the Dolly Sods mountaintop weather station (after it was taken out by the windstorm on March 2nd).

 

Nice to have another station other than just Snowshoe representing the ridgeline communities.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWVDAVIS33#history

[Phil]

Tonight looks interesting. Vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves through the area during the overnight hours tonight. Decent gradient/CAA with a downslope component in conjunction with enhanced upper level dynamics would seem to favor gusts at/above 45mph after midnight tonight in areas along/west of the Fall Line, but so far LWX has confined the wind advisory to areas along/west of the Blue Ridge, due to reservations about nocturnal mixing.

 

FWIW, I’m pretty bullish on advisory criteria winds reaching the I-95 corridor along/west of the Fall Line (from DCA northward) late tonight/early tomorrow morning, even if the gusts are intermittent. South of DCA probably falls just short except in areas near water/NNW topographical channeling.

 

Having studied these events for awhile now, this one feels like a decent setup for gusts in the climatologically-favored areas, particularly Parrs ridge and the N-VA piedmont areas including Leesburg/Reston. Typically, when CAA is vigorous in conjunction w/ a nearby 500mb vort track, those winds will mix down intermittently, even under nocturnal boundary conditions, so long as the pressure gradient axis at the top of the mixing layer is at least 45 degrees off the axis of the ridgelines. The sustained winds are weaker in the absence of insolation, and often the gusts are less frequent, but they still tend to mix down in an isolated or scattered manner.

[weatherfan2012]

Tonight looks interesting. Vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves through the area during the overnight hours tonight. Decent gradient/CAA with a downslope component in conjunction with enhanced upper level dynamics would seem to favor gusts at/above 45mph after midnight tonight in areas along/west of the Fall Line, but so far LWX has confined the wind advisory to areas along/west of the Blue Ridge, due to reservations about nocturnal mixing.

FWIW, I’m pretty bullish on advisory criteria winds reaching the I-95 corridor along/west of the Fall Line (from DCA northward) late tonight/early tomorrow morning, even if the gusts are intermittent. South of DCA probably falls just short except in areas near water/NNW topographical channeling.

Having studied these events for awhile now, this one feels like a decent setup for gusts in the climatologically-favored areas, particularly Parrs ridge and the N-VA piedmont areas including Leesburg/Reston. Typically, when CAA is vigorous in conjunction w/ a nearby 500mb vort track, those winds will mix down intermittently, even under nocturnal boundary conditions, so long as the pressure gradient axis at the top of the mixing layer is at least 45 degrees off the axis of the ridgelines. The sustained winds are weaker in the absence of insolation, and often the gusts are less frequent, but they still tend to mix down in an isolated or scattered manner.

sounds like those winds are verifying can here it right now with the line of showers going through.

[Phil]

That was a decent frontal passage. Some distant lightning flashes and winds around 40mph here. It might have been stronger though (the trees are deadwooding quite a bit for the first time this fall..the previous fronts did not manage that).

 

Now we await the CAA/pressure surge. Thinking that arrives between 3-4AM here.

[Phil]

Looks like 47mph at Dulles with the squall.

[Phil]

Snowshoe hit 65mph. Heavy snow there now, with episodic blizzard conditions.

[Andie]

I'm amazed at all the wind in your area. Is this typical ?

[Phil]

I'm amazed at all the wind in your area. Is this typical ?

Yes, but not this early. Usually it starts picking up in November and peaks in Feb-Apr.

 

Mountains are to blame.

[Phil]

Looks like 43mph was the peak gust last night here. So right around the threshold of advisory criteria, when accounting for trees obstructing the anemometer.

[Phil]

Wind report. Lots of 45-55mph stuff, with 58mph in Wintergreen. Snowshoe is outside our CWA (so it’s unlisted) but they reached 67mph.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=201810211758

[Andie]

When have a very nice week of high 60's and low 70's. Chance of .50" rain on Wed.

 

We need the break, although it's likely going to be a wet cold winter. Button up!

[Phil]

First freeze for us last night. Dropped to 31.8*F, so it wasn’t a hard freeze, but it was a freeze nonetheless.

 

Also a heavy frost on just about everything, due to the high residual moisture content at this time of year. So it looked wintry for a half-minute,

[Andie]

Hurricane Willa will return our rain to the area.

 

The moisture coming up from Mexico has been considerable this fall.

Phil can you explain this in English ? Seems it is especially vicious this year.

We have like 45" inches of rain so far. 20" over average. Just crazy.

[Phil]

Cool, breezy day with super-bright sunshine and highs in the middle 50s. Epic weather. Haven’t seen a single cloud all day, actually.

 

Our rainy season (and summer) apparently came to an abrupt end with a single cold front 13 days ago. That is a rarity for here..usually it’s a long, slow descent into winter. Not this time!

[Phil]

The harvest moon is gonna be bright as heck tonight. With no clouds anywhere and a very dry atmosphere, it will light up the sky like a streetlight.

 

Such a huge difference from summer, when there is so much humidity that it’s hard to see the stars even on a crystal clear night.

[Phil]

Also seeing signs of fall color, at long last. The vast majority of trees are still green, but the “tint” is changing, and a few isolated trees/limbs have responded quickly and are displaying vibrant colors.

 

Feels like an early/mid November peak this year. That is about 2 weeks behind schedule, but the weather pattern looks decent enough to max out what color potential there is.

[Andie]

We're seeing our color at last. All the rain this year has given us plenty of yellow and orange. Nice for a change after dry summers.

 

Hurricane Willa gave me 2.10" of slow steady rain. We are totally saturated.

Expecting at least 5 or 6 days of sun so that's a nice switch. Temps in the low 80's though.

[Phil]

Another freeze last night, a smidge cooler @ 31.5*F but still not a vegetation killer.

 

Today’s high of 51.8*F was well below normal. Clouds moving in ahead of the nor’easter that will graze the region tomorrow. Looks like a cold rain with breezy onshore winds.

[Andie]

Expecting many Nor'easters this winter?

[Phil]

Snowing up on skyline drive this morning.

 

Preparing for a cold rain down here.

[Andie]

Hopefully you'll get that snow, Phil.

 

We're in a sunny warm pattern right now. Not unusual for Texas this time of year.

[Phil]

Wintergreen gusted to 63mph last night.

 

[Andie]

Well we don’t get the beauty of the Northeast in fall but we managed some nice yellows and oranges on the 7th and8th fairways.

 

82* and sunny with a wonderful breeze. I’ll take it. Humidity’s low and life is good!

 

[Phil]

Wintergreen hit 58mph yesterday evening.

 

Watching for a severe squall line this afternoon with the frontal passage. Looks to be timed well w/ the jetmax and decent upper level support. Could be fun.

[Phil]

71mph gust just east of Westminster!