March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

[St Paul Storm]

Thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow, followed by a winter storm. Gotta love March in the Midwest

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM nuclear run. MPX wisely said in their afternoon disco that they’re tossing that garbage. Will be interesting to see how this turns out.

[gosaints]

Nam drunk.. 3km not nearly as drunk

[Madtown]

What's the latest for this area...mkx seems to think it will snow but not accumulate too much

[St Paul Storm]

0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.

[Stormgeek]

0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.

Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rolls

[gosaints]

Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rolls

You seem to be in a great spot...

[Hawkeye]

00z 3k nam has 0.30-0.50" precip in the form of snow here.  I'm going to take the under on that.

[St Paul Storm]

GEM going ham too. This is entertaining.

[Money]

0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.

10:1 ratios are way too high in this

[St Paul Storm]

10:1 ratios are way too high in this

Yup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point.

[St Paul Storm]

Pivotal finally updated. Here’s the Kuchera guess.

[Money]

Yup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point.

Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc

 

Temps look to be around freezing for this

[Stormgeek]

One thing is a given in this. Whatever falls is going to be absolute concrete. Moving it is going to be a pain.

[snowstorm83]

Good luck to Minnesotans with this thing. Maybe we get a few flakes over her in CornLand. 

[Minny_Weather]

For stats sake, I'd love to get a tenth of an inch from this so at least we're guaranteed to have a last snowfall in March at the earliest.

[Hawkeye]

[Tom]

The 1st Blizzard of March is official!  Parts of SD and into extreme N NE are under Blizzard Warnings this morning.  SD is going to get walloped...wind gusts up to 60mph and up to 18" of snow is a winner in my book...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meantime, the north side of MSP is locked for another beauty...

 

[gosaints]

Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc

 

Temps look to be around freezing for this

LA crosse going 6-8 where the best band sets up.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower.

[Madtown]

4in here according to nws

[Tom]

MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower.

How much snow do you have OTG?

[St Paul Storm]

How much snow do you have OTG?

We made it up to the mid 40s yesterday and that did some damage. I have 4-5” OTG. The official depth at the airport is 5”.

 

MPX also talking gusts to 40mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are power outages with the heavy concrete snow. This should be pretty wild, regardless of how much snow actually accumulates.

[Minny_Weather]

Yesterday's SPC outlook for today.

 

 

Today's SPC outlook for today.

 

[bud2380]

The 3k NAM seems to have a better handle on this than the regular NAM. In Iowa rain looks to change over to snow between 12-3pm tomorrow. That’s bad news for accumulation as this time of year especially you want that changeover happening at night. I think timing alone will limit accums in Iowa. If it were 3 hours slower then the Mississippi River corridor from DBQ on north would be in a better spot.

[gosaints]

Rgem blasts the metro...

[St Paul Storm]

Heavy pinger storm at the moment. Accumulating on the driveway. No mention of frozen precip today so there’s that.

[Money]

Rgem with 15-16 for msp

 

Gfs with 6-8

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030412&fh=54&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[gosaints]

Rgem with 15-16 for msp

 

Gfs with 6-8

 

I

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030412&fh=54&r=us_mw&dpdt=

I would ride somewhere in between there.

[WBadgersW]

Its looking like a 3-6" event here. Lehs will be a wild card, although it doesn't look very impressive.

[St Paul Storm]

I would ride somewhere in between there.

Yeah those big totals rarely verify. I’d say somewhere between the two but we’re definitely in short term model timeframe. Those are gonna pick up on the convection elements better than the globals, and those are generally spitting out higher totals.

[Money]

Yeah those big totals rarely verify. I’d say somewhere between the two but we’re definitely in short term model timeframe. Those are gonna pick up on the convection elements better than the globals, and those are generally spitting out higher totals.

Go small

 

4-7 is a good call for your area

[gosaints]

Go small

 

4-7 is a good call for your area

Do u ever go big?

[hlcater]

I’m also going smallish. 5-8 is my call. For MSP

[gosaints]

Stormgeek gonna go double digits

[St Paul Storm]

Good calls. Start small and if we get more it’s just bonus money. 4-8” would cause enough problems.

[Money]

Do u ever go big?

If this was dec or Jan it would be 10+

 

A lot going against big amounts

 

1. Marginal temps

2. Most of the snow looks to fall during the day which is never good for this time of the year.

3. Some of the snow on the ground will probably be melting with more daylight/marginal temps etc

[Money]

Here’s the heaviest rates

 

.5-6 qpf for msp

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_003h&rh=2018030412&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

This is during the 18z-21z timeframe so in the middle of the aft

 

Here are the temps at 21z

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2018030412&fh=33&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

31-33 range. Obv the heaviest rates might help it accumulate some but you’re gonna lose some of that QPF to warmer ground temps etc

 

Now it looks like temps cool some more as the night goes on

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2018030412&fh=39&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

29-30 range but most of the heavier precip already moved east

 

So my call:

 

3-4 during the afternoon

2-3 for the rest of the storm

 

Total: 5-7

[Money]

I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so far

[gosaints]

I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so far

Ya I am banking on the gfs being slightly Warm up there which is a known bias. But could easily go either way