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Plains/MW/GL Weekend Light Snow Event 1/21-1/22


bud2380

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The GFS was the first to show this system and the Euro and Canadian have come into line the past couple of days.  All are showing relative consistency in bringing a weak wave of snow from eastern CO into parts of KS, NE, IA, MO, IL, WI and MI.  A general 1-4" appears to be in line for most areas, but maybe it will trend a bit stronger as we get closer (fingers crossed).  Either way for many snow starved areas, at least it brings a chance to see some flakes fly.  

 

image.png.f10c4b7d78c67eeb7f1bc5648ee40f98.png

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Winter Storm Watch issued by the Dodge City, KS weather office.  Warnings in SE Colorado.  

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
403 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084-200115-
/O.NEW.KDDC.WS.A.0001.230121T0300Z-230122T0000Z/
Scott-Lane-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-
Morton-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake, Dighton,
Syracuse, Lakin, Deerfield, Garden City, Johnson City, Ulysses,
Sublette, Satanta, Cimarron, Montezuma, and Elkhart
403 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 /303 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2023/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations commonly of
  2 to 4 inches with locally 5 inches or more.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Kansas.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and widespread
  visibility reduction to a half mile.
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EAX discussion

The next storm system, which will affect the area from Saturday
afternoon through the overnight hours, is moving southeastward
across Nevada this afternoon. This wave will move into the Four
Corners area tonight, across Arizona and New Mexico Friday, and then
into the high plains by Saturday morning. As this wave tracks
eastward through the day Saturday, it will merge with another wave
moving southeastward out of Canada. As this area of combined
vorticity moves over the region, remaining positively tilted and
progressive as it does, widespread light precipitation will develop.
Models show some low-level warm advection ahead of the wave but
there is no warm layer aloft to melt any potential ice crystals. So
we`ll see rain for areas where the temperatures are warmer
initially, then transition to snow as temperatures cool later in
the event. This initial melting due to warmer boundary layer
temperatures will cut into accumulations along and south of the
Missouri River. But north of the river, where temperatures will be
closer to freezing and below for the duration of the precipitation,
several inches of snow looks possible. The current forecast shows a
swath of 1-2 inches of snow across the northern half of the forecast
area, north of the Missouri River. Along and south of the river,
where the changeover to snow is later, amounts of less than an inch
are expected at this time. The period of heaviest precipitation
looks to be in the 6 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday time frame.
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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Euro takes it right up to your door step.  Not a lot of snow with this one for KC but this would have flakes flying during the Chiefs game Saturday.

Always cool to see snowflakes at football games. NWS Hastings really has no idea if this comes up towards I80 or stays south of Kansas border. Unfortunately, it looks like it   weakens by the time it hits your area. NWS KC says 1-2” north of Missouri River. That wouldn’t give you much. 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Always cool to see snowflakes at football games. NWS Hastings really has no idea if this comes up towards I80 or stays south of Kansas border. Unfortunately, it looks like it   weakens by the time it hits your area. NWS KC says 1-2” north of Missouri River. That wouldn’t give you much. 

Not expecting much of anything for mby but I'll be at the game Saturday and would love to have some flake flying during the game.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Not expecting much of anything for mby but I'll be at the game Saturday and would love to have some flake flying during the game.

That should be fun. I’ve sent my brother in Shawnee the pictures of the snow we had that I’ve posted on here. He is in awe. I think he said at his location they have only had a little over 1” of snow for the season. Need a share the wealth system further south. 

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Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

That should be fun. I’ve sent my brother in Shawnee the pictures of the snow we had that I’ve posted on here. He is in awe. I think he said at his location they have only had a little over 1” of snow for the season. Need a share the wealth system further south. 

I'm very jealous and congrats on landing the big dog!  3rd year in a row where my area will enter the last week of January with very little snow and like the previous 2 winters it looks like a stormy finish.

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Looking at the NAM further east. Brings SEMI about 6 hrs of snow falling. Idc about amounts, just nice to see non-mixed mess look from this range. 

 

23-01-20 0z NAM Surf h66-72.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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EAX take this morning.

The Weekend:

After our brief quiet weather break, attention will turn to a
pinched low across the southwest. As we head into Saturday, this low
will shift northwest, eventually merging with the main trough across
the central US. This system will move into our area by mid Saturday
bringing the return of precip chances through the day. Precip type
looks a bit tricky with this system, with northern parts of the area
seeing mainly snow, while areas south of I-70 look to remain
primarily rain or mixed. Soundings show much of the area with
profiles aloft just below the freezing mark with surface
temperatures near to slightly above freezing. With the warm ground
(especially south of I-70) it may take quite a while to see any
snowfall stick to the ground. As cold air eventually moves in, the
southern half of the area will transition to snow or a rain snow
mix before the event comes to an end. Accumulations for the KC
Metro and I-70 and south will be primarily less than an inch, and
mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. For northwest MO however,
where cold air is more present, accumulations of 1-2" will be
possible. Precipitation will move out quickly Saturday night. Quiet
weather returns for Sunday. Clouds will linger through the day
and highs will top our in the mid to upper 30s across the area.

Tab2FileL.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro with a small bump in totals.

1674518400-MDDeLsBDsYA.png

6z GFS

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Looks like south of I80 in Nebraska.  This would put me in line for possibly a couple of inches as I'm about 15 miles south of I80.  Not many places to put any more snow.  Our school lots this morning look like the Rockies.  Massive piles everywhere.

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29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Looks like south of I80 in Nebraska.  This would put me in line for possibly a couple of inches as I'm about 15 miles south of I80.  Not many places to put any more snow.  Our school lots this morning look like the Rockies.  Massive piles everywhere.

Running out of room to put snow now that's a good problem to have.  Let's hope this moisture translates into spring rains.

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5 hours ago, westMJim said:

At the current time the weekend (Sunday) system does not look too much of a snow event here in Michigan. 

Speak for yourself. Ofc, it's a nothing-burger compared to scoring 2-3 feet of LES like you've done twice this season already. Sadly, very sadly, I have to be excited for the "chance" at a couple inches 🙄

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z CMC

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

I know this is the GEM. Too bad the RGEM wasn't more accurate (see earlier post)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

WWA issued for Topeka, Kan and NW Missouri.

Map of Forecast Area

I wonder if KC will eventually be put under one tomorrow at some point. New runs of NAM 3KM and Nam show some kind of meso banding. It actually holds the storm together quite well. Looking at the satellite today, the storm has a beautiful circulation to it over the 4 corners.....Data up to this point blows it up to our west and then weakens quite a bit heading east. What if it were to stay stronger longer?? We'll see if the Oz data shows that tonight. It would be a no brainer if temps where in the 20's...BUT

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