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Plains/MW/GL Weekend Light Snow Event 1/21-1/22


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12 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Radar looking nice (for this event at least) just NW of KDSM in mby. All ready a quick inch- should get between 2-3 with a going forecast of less than 1/2" "possible" -- have been in advisories for less....

image.thumb.png.9d0c462c5fc2cb788f867f0aa11e4885.png

Yeah, seems to be a more northward extension of decent precip sheild than was portrayed. Snow will always find it's way to the cold. I think the same will play out with the bigger system next week. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Been snowing steadily since the chiefs game wrapped up. Have a light coating on the grounds since the temps are still running at 33. If it were 3-4 degrees colder than we would be looking at a couple inches of snow easy today 

A storm like this should have produced 5 or 6 inches of snow this time of year.  Very frustrating!

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Updated and upgraded!

image.png.c88aac44f12342265a6892563dc784f3.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Every event is different I get it. But Global models won this event by a landslide over the NAM suite and HRRR / RAP (among others) here in C.IA. Gonna end up with around 2". NAM suite and CAM's had TR to less than .5" just 24-30 hours ago..

Sometimes it's easier to figure out which guidance does best in the lesser events, because it shows more-- but then again- each event is different.

But for the next event here in C.IA-- I will write off NAM suite and CAM's in favor of globals until it's obvious.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This is awesome, new bands of snow continue to redevelop as it continues to snow out my window.  It's so nice to see a daytime snowfall.  Everything is coated in a layer of white gold!  I'd say we are sitting a little over 1"...I'll got out and measure soon.

 

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is awesome, new bands of snow continue to redevelop as it continues to snow out my window.  It's so nice to see a daytime snowfall.  Everything is coated in a layer of white gold!  I'd say we are sitting a little over 1"...I'll got out and measure soon.

 

Same here Tom, great scenery this morning

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8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Every event is different I get it. But Global models won this event by a landslide over the NAM suite and HRRR / RAP (among others) here in C.IA. Gonna end up with around 2". NAM suite and CAM's had TR to less than .5" just 24-30 hours ago..

Sometimes it's easier to figure out which guidance does best in the lesser events, because it shows more-- but then again- each event is different.

But for the next event here in C.IA-- I will write off NAM suite and CAM's in favor of globals until it's obvious.

Oddly, it looks like the NAM will score the coup over this way.. 

DTX overnight:

There has been a real trend in suggesting a better snowfall
rate potential in the 13-17Z time window. This really is a cold
sounding, so any heavier rates will favor cooling and preserve
better ice crystal structure down to the surface. Earlier messaging
brought attention to the potential of snowfall rates reaching 0.5"
per hour for a time late this morning across the far southeastern
cwa. This does seem reasonable. Not willing to just buy in with the
higher nam QPF, but 0.15 inch of liquid at approximately 14:1 could
get a few locations over 2 inches today.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oddly, it looks like the NAM will score the coup over this way.. 

DTX overnight:

There has been a real trend in suggesting a better snowfall
rate potential in the 13-17Z time window. This really is a cold
sounding, so any heavier rates will favor cooling and preserve
better ice crystal structure down to the surface. Earlier messaging
brought attention to the potential of snowfall rates reaching 0.5"
per hour for a time late this morning across the far southeastern
cwa. This does seem reasonable. Not willing to just buy in with the
higher nam QPF, but 0.15 inch of liquid at approximately 14:1 could
get a few locations over 2 inches today.

This looks like its going to be an overachiever.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is awesome, new bands of snow continue to redevelop as it continues to snow out my window.  It's so nice to see a daytime snowfall.  Everything is coated in a layer of white gold!  I'd say we are sitting a little over 1"...I'll got out and measure soon.

 

Same here with nice sized fluffly flakes coming down from the N. Glad you were not left out of this. Same will likely be true when bigger dog follows this little dog's path. Enjoy amigo!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Its snowing moderately outside right now w/ temps at 29F. Everything is snow covered and snow is accumulating.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I've always liked getting an appetizer storm, followed by a much bigger storm a few days down the road. Great way to enjoy winter weather. Also, the great thing about this is that cold air remains locked and it just gets even colder down the road w/ potentially even more snowstorms to be coming. Finally, the pattern has changed!!!  The 3 week torture has ended ladies and gentlemen.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Congrats it looks like the NAM got it right for you guys again.  Glad it's white!

Thanks amigo. Hope you score bigly too w/ all storms that we are going to be tracking in the coming days and w/ this one of course.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Same here with nice sized fluffly flakes coming down from the N. Glad you were not left out of this. Same will likely be true when bigger dog follows this little dog's path. Enjoy amigo!

Same to you brotha!  It’s been almost 1 month to the day since it has snowed and accumulated during the day. Cheers to more!

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50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oddly, it looks like the NAM will score the coup over this way.. 

DTX overnight:

There has been a real trend in suggesting a better snowfall
rate potential in the 13-17Z time window. This really is a cold
sounding, so any heavier rates will favor cooling and preserve
better ice crystal structure down to the surface. Earlier messaging
brought attention to the potential of snowfall rates reaching 0.5"
per hour for a time late this morning across the far southeastern
cwa. This does seem reasonable. Not willing to just buy in with the
higher nam QPF, but 0.15 inch of liquid at approximately 14:1 could
get a few locations over 2 inches today.

We have a nice coating here! Light snow here.   Just happy to see snow in January! 

FBC582C7-EA6D-4220-AFA5-04E79E128B31.jpeg

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53 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Nice long duration  light  snow event here of 2.2" total. Snowed 5 pm to 8 am..  oddly for the 3rd time this season  we got a burst of snow in the 5 to 8 am time period. Making  it very difficult  to have properties looking  nice  by 7 to 9 am. Sitting at 11.2" for the season.

20230122_085442.jpg

NOT oddly, that's your LRC working for ya. 

49 minutes ago, Niko said:

I've always liked getting an appetizer storm, followed by a much bigger storm a few days down the road. Great way to enjoy winter weather. Also, the great thing about this is that cold air remains locked and it just gets even colder down the road w/ potentially even more snowstorms to be coming. Finally, the pattern has changed!!!  The 3 week torture has ended ladies and gentlemen.

Like @Tom said, it's been about a month since any real snow has fallen. And we lost that snow 5 days later. It has felt like 3 mos lol since it was white here at Christmas

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice presentation. See ya back here in about 72 hrs?

 

23-01-22 15z Suface Map.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I received 1.1" of snow overnight.  Like some models were suggesting, a bit more fell just north and south.  It's just a weak system, though, so a few tenths are irrelevant.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Congrats.  A polished turd of a winter.  

The saddest part is how much stupid salt the contractors spread around here for the smallest of snows. And today's minor (major this season) event will have tons sitting everywhere when the Wed storm rolls through. WIth so little winter the past 3 seasons, they prolly have an over-stock of salt and seems they can't get rid of it fast enough. In my youth, yes they used salt on the roads a lot, but I don't remember it on every square inch of parking lots, sidewalks, door-steps and such. It's ridiculous after a small event you're walking on salt and white bleh for days. I know we have at least one contractor here in this Sub. They probably pitch the "we'll save you from slip-n-fall lawsuits" to their business cliental. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Had about 1.5” here. I measured 1.3” but I was late getting out to measure so I know there was some compaction by then. Fun snow. It’s just wet enough to make snowballs and a snowman. The kids took the sledding tube down the hill in the backyard. So they had fun. 
 

Picture from last night. Looked like a snow globe. 

481A0E7B-F305-4220-9F4C-6608D15499F1.jpeg

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47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

The saddest part is how much stupid salt the contractors spread around here for the smallest of snows. And today's minor (major this season) event will have tons sitting everywhere when the Wed storm rolls through. WIth so little winter the past 3 seasons, they prolly have an over-stock of salt and seems they can't get rid of it fast enough. In my youth, yes they used salt on the roads a lot, but I don't remember it on every square inch of parking lots, sidewalks, door-steps and such. It's ridiculous after a small event you're walking on salt and white bleh for days. I know we have at least one contractor here in this Sub. They probably pitch the "we'll save you from slip-n-fall lawsuits" to their business cliental. 

No doubt.  The ground is already warm enough right now.  

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Measured 1.5" on the deck and I'm sure some melting and compaction took place.  I think the NAM hit this spot on 12-24 hours to the event.  HRRR was always to far south and never blew up any moisture on the northern side.  Might have to keep that in mind for the next system.

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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

Measured 1.5" on the deck and I'm sure some melting and compaction took place.  I think the NAM hit this spot on 12-24 hours to the event.  HRRR was always to far south and never blew up any moisture on the northern side.  Might have to keep that in mind for the next system.

Looking like a Charlie Brown Christmas over here.  Winds are calm and big flakes falling down.  Trees are coated.  Winter is back! 

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DTW Metro received 3.3" today from this weak system. Not too shabby. Definitely an overachiever.

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / 7 PM / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS White Lake      :   32 /  28  /  29  / 0.07  /  1.3/ 1
ADG  : Adrian Airport      :   33 /  29  /  30  / 0.08
ARB  : Ann Arbor Airport   :   32 /  29  /  31  / 0.11
BAX  :*Bad Axe Airport     :   30 /  25  /  25  /
CFS  :*Caro Airport-Tuscola:   35 /  31  /  31  /
DET  : Detroit City Airport:   35 /  31  /  33  / 0.15
DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:   34 /  29  /  31  / 0.20  /  3.3/ 3
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

DTW Metro received 3.3" today from this weak system. Not too shabby. Definitely an overachiever.

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / 7 PM / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS White Lake      :   32 /  28  /  29  / 0.07  /  1.3/ 1
ADG  : Adrian Airport      :   33 /  29  /  30  / 0.08
ARB  : Ann Arbor Airport   :   32 /  29  /  31  / 0.11
BAX  :*Bad Axe Airport     :   30 /  25  /  25  /
CFS  :*Caro Airport-Tuscola:   35 /  31  /  31  /
DET  : Detroit City Airport:   35 /  31  /  33  / 0.15
DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:   34 /  29  /  31  / 0.20  /  3.3/ 3

Wow! Quite impressive to squeeze that amount of snow with little moisture to work with. ! 

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DTW 

Cold arctic air will infiltrate the region for the end of the week
with the models showing broad polar vorticity reservoir reaching
down into the Gulf of Mexico. Plenty of shortwaves to monitor within
the trough which should keep snow showers/flurries around both
Thursday and Friday. A stronger arctic intrusion will then be
possible for the weekend.

 

Thats a strong polar influence! 

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Kind of ended up with a surprise snow Saturday night....local forecasters gave up on it as we just had some light rain/snow throughout the day, but, the storm held together and produce 6 hours of snow in my part of the city from 9:00pm to 3:00am, laying down a good coating across north KC. I measured 1.6 inches at my house and we had slushy streets in the middle of night. Covered the grass and the trees, it was quite beautiful Sunday morning. 

40 miles to my north near the St. Joe area, reports of 3-5 inches. 

Quite the storm for western KS through north central KS up to Northern MO.

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21 minutes ago, Tom said:

ORD officially tacked on 1.5" of snow yesterday, the largest single day snowfall of the season.  Pretty sad, nothing more than a stat padder and also lift the mood as the snow was flying.  

I feel your pain Tom… just hoping things change next week - the last thing we need here is cold weather with no snow. Two consecutive Winters of this in a row is slowly draining the optimism out of weather watchers/ snow lovers like myself and others from Omaha/ Lincoln on this board.

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3 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Wow! Quite impressive to squeeze that amount of snow with little moisture to work with. ! 

Yep. The NAM nailed it. Its quite a wintry scene over here.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looking at my 2.2" for this weak event. Seems my area continues  to eek by with  low but steady system  providing  frozen precip.  We have plowed or salted 7 systems. The 2 pre xmas ones were long duration during which snow stopped a began again which this  sunday system also did.  Comparing this area with places both east, west and south of me, Im happy  with  amount of activity albeit weak as usual.   Season total of snow and sleet now at 11.2 inches.

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