Tom Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 After today's runs, it appears all the models are on board for a potential significant winter storm taking the southern stream storm track from the TX PanHandle up somewhere between the S MW and OHV. Could this become a Big Dog?? Plenty of days to iron out the details. Let's discuss... 12z EPS...it continues to paint a good signal for a widespread snowstorm from the Plains to the Lower Lakes/OHV region... 12z Euro OP... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 What concerns me is that hopefully a coastal low does not steal the energy from us. We've seen that happen before. Thoughts on this one?? 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 Going to depend on when/where the phase occurs...and if at all. My early guess is this will slide south of the lakes leaving us with scraps. Hoping I am wrong but that's how this winter has rolled so far. Michigan and Indiana seem to be in the better position for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 Timing will be everything with this one. How strong with the HP be to the east? How fast does that northern stream move? The Euro nudged a bit north from previous runs. I. But a long way to go with this one. One thing is certain, there will be most likely a significant storm for those that have been left out this winter. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Niko said: What concerns me is that hopefully a coastal low does not steal the energy from us. We've seen that happen before. Thoughts on this one?? What's exciting about this one is the low is lifting up from south Texas near the gulf and may lift NNE bringing a ton of gulf moisture with it. There really is no low moving along the gulf to push the better moisture east. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 Yeah, idk: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 You know, I've always thought the GFS was the best model... 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 Lot of warm air being drawn up a long ways north with this one to start with. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 19, 2023 Report Share Posted January 19, 2023 Gfs best and most trustworthy medium range model. Lock it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Euro S of me, GFS N. I'd immediately punt this if it were the other way around at this range. Thermals are a challenge in this heat-sink of a January. Between UHI and just a historically crappy location, I come to bat with two strikes against me already. I can't abide marginal temps at onset. Warmth surging N too strongly is the other thing I have to sweat. And it is not handled by the models (see Omaha just yesterday). Models did/will show consistent nice hits of snow in these marginal situations, just to end up folding their collective hands at go time. I will continue to engage for fun, but tbh my expectations aren't where they should be based on track & strength at this juncture. This is like a shoulder season set-up, even tho it's the heart of winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z Euro Control keeps creeping further north. Oklahoma folks are going to like this also. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control keeps creeping further north. Oklahoma folks are going to like this also. Keep moving north please and thank you! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said: Keep moving north please and thank you! That's far enough! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z GFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z GFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 No complaints from me this evening. 18z EPS looked solid, 00z CMC/GFS both looking good as well. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 CMC and GFS are similar tonight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC and GFS are similar tonight. Steps in the right direction for kc 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Steps in the right direction for kc No doubt good trends tonight lets keep it going! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC and GFS are similar tonight. I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still. I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS, This one is undoubtedly further south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture. Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region, being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said: I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still. I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS, This one is undoubtedly further south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture. Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region, being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. Hey welcome! It's great to have a mid Missouri guy on here. I like the trends also and I think we have a good chance to see a significant snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 I'm not optimistic about my area getting much, if anything, from this. At best, we will probably only get brushed by the nw edge. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still. I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS, This one is undoubtedly further south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture. Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region, being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. The real + sign I see in the modeling at this distance is the strength of the ULL as it digs deep into the heart of TX/OK and then takes its journey on a great path for our region. It has been rare this season tracking one of these powerful troughs from the S Plains up into the S MW/OHV this winter, but I got a good feeling about this one smashing the southern/eastern SUB. Hope we all can share the wealth somehow! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z Euro Control...how long has it been since we've seen a real TX Panhandle Cutter that dropped a huge swath of Snow from TX up into the Lower Lakes? I like our chances @jaster220 @Clinton @Black Hole @Hoosier @Niko....This storm has a real potential to impact quiet a number of our members for the south to the east. Hopefully it becomes a Beast! 06z GEFS... Some real big hits showing up... 0z EPS... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 0z EPS...the theme here is for a phasing storm and a healthy looking one to say the least at this range... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 32 minutes ago, Tom said: 0z Euro Control...how long has it been since we've seen a real TX Panhandle Cutter that dropped a huge swath of Snow from TX up into the Lower Lakes? I like our chances @jaster220 @Clinton @Black Hole @Hoosier @Niko....This storm has a real potential to impact quiet a number of our members for the south to the east. Hopefully it becomes a Beast! 06z GEFS... Some real big hits showing up... 0z EPS... This mornings GFS has the ULL in a perfect spot in Northern Arkansas to deliver KC and myself a major storm. Will we see it bomb out over the Lakes or the upper Midwest? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 6z GFS 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 6z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean with another nudge NW. Big totals in Oklahoma. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Not liking the discrepancies in the models right now. Especially when the GFS favorites my location. This is a check back sunday and see if it's still there kind of storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 It looks like Tuesday will be my day for rain. 70% chance. Temps 49-32. Looks good and very welcomed. Slight chance Monday, 30%, but we won’t hold our breath. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Latest EPS continues to nudge totals upwards. Yesterday I commented on the lack of pre storm cold air, which is still true, but the storm appears to be strong enough to overcome that with precip rates. Probably a lot of 32-34 degree snow. That will cut down on totals a bit, but nonetheless the trend is my friend for now. Also worth noting that winds will pick up quite a bit as the low goes by to the southeast with some gusts of 30-40 mph. That first system will probably mostly end up as rain, but a few members showing heavier totals. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Nice to also see the CMC/UKMET/GFS all showing the same general idea now even if there is some placement/intensity uncertainty for the precipitation. That's to be expected at 3-4 days out. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 LMAO, I’m done with winter if this storm plays out like this: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 yuck. But expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, winterfreak said: LMAO, I’m done with winter if this storm plays out like this: Wow great hit for my area!! Still several days to go though, there will be some wibble wobble to come im sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS went all in! 1 2 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 43 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Wow great hit for my area!! Still several days to go though, there will be some wibble wobble to come im sure. North has been the trend with storms this season. I expect this to be the same. I like where we are sitting as of now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Been a long time since I've had to pull the ol' black and white images from the Canadian, but since the mainstream sites aren't updating, here is the CMC for Wed AM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Been a long time since I've had to pull the ol' black and white images from the Canadian, but since the mainstream sites aren't updating, here is the CMC for Wed AM Where do you even find these? Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, Black Hole said: Where do you even find these? https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Then scroll down to this area. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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