bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 The color chart just updated. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: The color chart just updated. CMC has been rock steady with this storm. Hope it's on the right path. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Big step in the wrong direction on the GEFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GEFS Not many hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: Not many hits. Lets see if this trends north on the GFS like the other storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Canadian with a nice shift to the NW. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Ukie as well 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Massive improvement for the state of Iowa. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Total for the entire period (which includes the light snow from this weekend). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 CMC nudges NW but has been rock steady with this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Total for the entire period (which includes the light snow from this weekend). Would love for this map to verify. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Sorry to the Lakes area as the CMC has stalled at hr 138 so this doesn't have the whole storm for ya. As Bud mentioned a jump NW for the Canadian. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Doesn't get much better than this for here. Not understanding the differences between this and your other GIF that shows main swath south thru OH?? The gif is the EPS snow mean while the one you posted is the Euro Control... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Oh Canada 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z Euro with a jump NW as there is a stronger HP over Ontario Canada this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 EURO is better but still not enough. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Significant jump NW as Tom mentioned vs. 00z. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Big hit coming for N IN/S MI folks... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z vs. 00z big trend in the right direction for MBY, although still not much showing up, at least it's something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV. Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking... 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 The 12z GFS DUMPS me! 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 ECMWF looks pretty similar to last nights run, but like other models a bit further north. Still looks great for my area and actually smatters at least a little snow over a pretty wide swath. KC people should be happier with that track. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 I have seen this movie before. 5 days out from the big pre-xmas storm. Only to get an inch. Hopefully this doesn't do the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 I'll take ensemble number 28 please. But in all seriousness, big time adjustment on the GEFS. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 13 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: I'm starting to like the trends in models tonight for here in mid Missouri. I don't want to get too excited yet though! No doubt, there will be wibbles and wobbles in the track still. I do like this little blurp from the St. Louis NWS, This one is undoubtedly further south than any of our more recent waves, and with a track near the Gulf of Mexico it will have better access to low level moisture. Model consensus is growing on the track, although significant uncertainty remains. Current consensus favors this trough turning negative tilt with a surface low tracking from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. This would be a favorable track for snow for our region, being on the northwest side of the track with access to both cold air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. I live in Columbia, Mo so there are a few of us nearby. Hopefully we score with this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, winterfreak said: LMAO, I’m done with winter if this storm plays out like this: That would suck. Didn’t this happen last year to KC? We seemed to be in the bullseye in Columbia last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, ATW said: That would suck. Didn’t this happen last year to KC? We seemed to be in the bullseye in Columbia last year. It’s been happening for years. We’ve been missed to the north, south, east, and west. Rough stretch. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterfreak said: It’s been happening for years. We’ve been missed to the north, south, east, and west. Rough stretch. I hope you score with this one. Seems to be creeping NW with every run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals. 6 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, ATW said: I hope you score with this one. Seems to be creeping NW with every run. I hope we all do. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z EPS looking much more organized... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z EPS looking much more organized... You can see that connection to the artic air also. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 51 minutes ago, shakjen said: I have seen this movie before. 5 days out from the big pre-xmas storm. Only to get an inch. Hopefully this doesn't do the same. Accuweather makes me laugh. But hey, at least there is something to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Anyone have the 12z Euro control? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Anyone have the 12z Euro control? I was just coming on here to post this...it stopped loading at HR 120 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 LOL, it just loaded a few more pages...very similar to the Euro Op. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, Tom said: I was just coming on here to post this...it stopped loading at HR 120 I like to see that it's starting to clip Iowa. A nice jog NW for us up here still holding out hope. The Canadian took a huge jump NW and the GFS has been back and forth (typical). The Euro is usually more measured in it's changes, but at 4-5 days out, it gives me hope of shifting even more this way. Hopefully it will be a fun weekend of model watching. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 DVN mentioning a potential phasing and further NW track. A system moving through the Southern Plains is possible Tuesday through Wednesday. The strength and position of that possible low pressure are highly variable in one run the next, and from model to model. For now, we`re advertising moderate chance pops for snow in the Tuesday night to Wednesday morning period. Should that system phase with northern stream energy, currently depicted over Minnesota at that time, we could deal with a more significant system that would be farther northwest. In any case, it`s one to keep an eye on, and will be the focus of our forecast once we get past Saturday night`s snow chance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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