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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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Haha @ Blizzard conditions map. VERY afraid of GFS's north rainer portrayal. Euro sig jump NW is no bueno! Going to be the classic S Stream SLP that brings too much WAA aloft and makes my hot corner of The Mitt just a few deg's too warm. This happens like 9 out of 10 times in this region. Especially with current warm era.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

image.png

image.png

 

 

When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

image.gif

 

So, there's mby's best weenie fantasy map. We all know the direction it goes from here. Not the storm itself. It may continue to ramp and bury MKE. I'm speaking for my locale only.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier

image.png

image.png

 

 

When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV.  Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking...

image.gif

 

This gives me over a foot of snow Luv it! 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

18z GFS not very good here. Congrats St. Louis:

023EE40A-DE4C-42C6-9B85-3361B1B8847E.png

Yesterday the GFS had this storm blasting eastern Iowa.  Now it's blasting STL.  I'd look at it for fun, but not take much away from the GFS until we get closer to the storm personally.  

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The ICON wraps in some warm air and cuts into snow totals.  It has trended further NW and colder.

image.thumb.gif.c06efd96a7699b6d78430f118f4f2be2.gif

image.thumb.gif.290a6a8126d120724c924c3423640a6b.gif

 

1674669600-Cfo6TjUFMmQ.png

 

 

I'm literally at the sharp cutoff zone in Oklahoma. Norman gets a foot, compared to Shawnee and Tecumseh getting 6 inches. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals. 

image.png

1209090310_23-01-2018zGEFSh147SN.thumb.png.48f2a84c6786ba4125c6c87d97180a50.png

Both EPS and GEFS with a really large (wide) snow swath. That's not your run-of-the-mill half a state wide coverage zone. It seems to lend all of us quite a bit of wiggle room and still get a decent snowfall. Liking trends this pm

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting. 

Friend, I hope you score bigly! 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned"  STL->IND->DTW special in the works??

 

23-01-20 CPC Hazards d3-7.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening.  Euro has a case of the wobbles today.

1674756000-0MN7kxhNUOk.png

1674756000-3arUZVOtu98.png

EURO has been south the whole time, but this is a really bad look. Yikes. We’re on the nw fringe on every model.  Just don’t see how this suddenly trends where we need it to at this point. Looks like an OHV storm.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening.  Euro has a case of the wobbles today.

1674756000-0MN7kxhNUOk.png

1674756000-3arUZVOtu98.png

Despite that DVN blurb posted earlier, the ORD Met RC that did this afternoon's afd noted that the S Stream shortwave will be the driver on this one and the phasing alluded to earlier is becoming less likely so the Euro may be adjusting/reflecting that expected outcome. Most likely takes the monster system off the table but helps me sleep a little better at night knowing an over-amped phase is less likely to bring the rains into mby. Still a long ways to go tho, so who knows. Just happy to see a legit shot here. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interesting that the PV bliz was expected to be quite a bit further S even 3 days prior (vs 5 days on map above):

886397056_20140102pmCPCHazards.thumb.jpg.4f1e893a7b48f1e96ead3f571eedc86e.jpg

This map was very close to what actually happened:

1652594069_2014010412zNAMSnfall-2.jpg.f7bfd0f84580ce3886c4010387fc8cb2.jpg

 

Attm, track looking more like this:

1038534385_20140103INTVmap.jpg.b638d65a1890863691b8bdba32160b81.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned"  STL->IND->DTW special in the works??

 

23-01-20 CPC Hazards d3-7.png

Fun times ahead amigo.  My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GRR pm 

-- Bigger threat for accumulating snow mid next week --

The most impactful system in the 7 day forecast is clearly the
system for mid next week. A Southern Plains low is forecast to
move northeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and move through
the area on Wednesday. In the operational models, the ECMWF, GFS
and Canadian there is spread in where the low is located Wednesday
evening. Essentially anywhere in the Southern Great Lakes region
is fair game at this point. The ECMWF ensemble mean low position
is near Lake Erie Wednesday evening with many of the individual
members over Lake Erie or the state of Ohio. This is a favorable
position for our southern CWA (I-96 corridor to the south) to see
accumulating snow. It does appear at this time to be cold enough
in the ECWMF and GFS for snow looking at both surface temperatures
and 850mb temperatures. So, we will be watching this time frame
closely to monitor trends in the models on location of the swath
of heavier snow. At this time the swath of snow could be on the
order of 6+ inches given a moisture tap of gulf origins. That
said, gulf moisture does not completely surge into the state
  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Fun times ahead amigo.  My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned.

You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century)

  • lol 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century)

😬  Tbh, I usually like watching the news (mostly recorded, so I don't have to deal w/ commercials), so, then I figure I see what they have to say for our weather. My favorite Meteorologist is Paul Gross.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, ATW said:

Starting to look like I’m a little too far north in Columbia. You’re marginally better. Probably an I-44 storm. 

Don't give up hope yet. We still have 3-4 days before this storm is here. Alot of wibble wobble to come still I believe. Boy I would love GFS ensemble p08 or p19 to verfiy! 

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Counting on good phasing to pull it significantly more nw is not a great spot to be in.  It's likely to slide southeast of my area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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