MIKEKC Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 I know it's the ICON....BUT.....it trended NW bigtime on its most recent 18z run!!!! Compare 12z to the current,, big shift. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Always goes northwest, then toward the end it actually drifts south and east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: I know it's the ICON....BUT.....it trended NW bigtime on its most recent 18z run!!!! Compare 12z to the current,, big shift. Can you post it here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Haha @ Blizzard conditions map. VERY afraid of GFS's north rainer portrayal. Euro sig jump NW is no bueno! Going to be the classic S Stream SLP that brings too much WAA aloft and makes my hot corner of The Mitt just a few deg's too warm. This happens like 9 out of 10 times in this region. Especially with current warm era. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Tom said: @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV. Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking... So, there's mby's best weenie fantasy map. We all know the direction it goes from here. Not the storm itself. It may continue to ramp and bury MKE. I'm speaking for my locale only. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z GFS not very good here. Congrats St. Louis: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Tom said: @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier When I originally made my call for a potential Big Dog during this period over a week ago, I had a vision of a powerful trough tracking into the 4 corners and ejecting out into the Deep South, in turn, cutting N/NE up the S MW/OHV. Not gonna sugar coat it, but this 12z Euro is D**n SWEET looking... This gives me over a foot of snow Luv it! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, winterfreak said: 18z GFS not very good here. Congrats St. Louis: Yesterday the GFS had this storm blasting eastern Iowa. Now it's blasting STL. I'd look at it for fun, but not take much away from the GFS until we get closer to the storm personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 45 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Can you post it here? The ICON wraps in some warm air and cuts into snow totals. It has trended further NW and colder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 18z GFS is just insanity. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: The ICON wraps in some warm air and cuts into snow totals. It has trended further NW and colder. I'm literally at the sharp cutoff zone in Oklahoma. Norman gets a foot, compared to Shawnee and Tecumseh getting 6 inches. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Come on 120 mile shift nw lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 While the 18z GFS operational was further east, the GEFS crept further NW vs 12z. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 hours ago, Black Hole said: Here is the 12z EPS for down here, continued uptrend in totals. Both EPS and GEFS with a really large (wide) snow swath. That's not your run-of-the-mill half a state wide coverage zone. It seems to lend all of us quite a bit of wiggle room and still get a decent snowfall. Liking trends this pm 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: This one looks beautiful on the plateau here in the Ozarks. I'm getting my hopes up.. Blizzard conditions is starting to look interesting. Friend, I hope you score bigly! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 @Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned" STL->IND->DTW special in the works?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening. Euro has a case of the wobbles today. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening. Euro has a case of the wobbles today. EURO has been south the whole time, but this is a really bad look. Yikes. We’re on the nw fringe on every model. Just don’t see how this suddenly trends where we need it to at this point. Looks like an OHV storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Control and Ensemble Mean both further south this evening. Euro has a case of the wobbles today. Despite that DVN blurb posted earlier, the ORD Met RC that did this afternoon's afd noted that the S Stream shortwave will be the driver on this one and the phasing alluded to earlier is becoming less likely so the Euro may be adjusting/reflecting that expected outcome. Most likely takes the monster system off the table but helps me sleep a little better at night knowing an over-amped phase is less likely to bring the rains into mby. Still a long ways to go tho, so who knows. Just happy to see a legit shot here. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Interesting that the PV bliz was expected to be quite a bit further S even 3 days prior (vs 5 days on map above): This map was very close to what actually happened: Attm, track looking more like this: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, jaster220 said: @Niko Gettin serious now bud, we've been "coned" STL->IND->DTW special in the works?? Fun times ahead amigo. My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 GRR pm -- Bigger threat for accumulating snow mid next week -- The most impactful system in the 7 day forecast is clearly the system for mid next week. A Southern Plains low is forecast to move northeast towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday and move through the area on Wednesday. In the operational models, the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian there is spread in where the low is located Wednesday evening. Essentially anywhere in the Southern Great Lakes region is fair game at this point. The ECMWF ensemble mean low position is near Lake Erie Wednesday evening with many of the individual members over Lake Erie or the state of Ohio. This is a favorable position for our southern CWA (I-96 corridor to the south) to see accumulating snow. It does appear at this time to be cold enough in the ECWMF and GFS for snow looking at both surface temperatures and 850mb temperatures. So, we will be watching this time frame closely to monitor trends in the models on location of the swath of heavier snow. At this time the swath of snow could be on the order of 6+ inches given a moisture tap of gulf origins. That said, gulf moisture does not completely surge into the state 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Niko said: Fun times ahead amigo. My local forecaster just said that heavy snow is possible and to stay tuned. You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: You watch local forecasters, LOL (TV is so last century) Tbh, I usually like watching the news (mostly recorded, so I don't have to deal w/ commercials), so, then I figure I see what they have to say for our weather. My favorite Meteorologist is Paul Gross. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Paul Gross is great, too bad he is retiring.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Patiently waiting for the 00z GFS run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Awful: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Snowfall: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 How has the accuracy been for the GFS at this range in past storms this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Snowfall: Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko. No bueno for KC and Chicago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko. No bueno for KC and Chicago. Keep going south. Let’s keep this streak of no snow going! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko. No bueno for KC and Chicago. Yessir. Maybe we’ve already seen our last flake this winter? Looks grim. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 55 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Patiently waiting for the 00z GFS run... Starting to look like I’m a little too far north in Columbia. You’re marginally better. Probably an I-44 storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z GEFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, ATW said: Starting to look like I’m a little too far north in Columbia. You’re marginally better. Probably an I-44 storm. Don't give up hope yet. We still have 3-4 days before this storm is here. Alot of wibble wobble to come still I believe. Boy I would love GFS ensemble p08 or p19 to verfiy! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Counting on good phasing to pull it significantly more nw is not a great spot to be in. It's likely to slide southeast of my area. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 That's a nice looking ensemble run there! Wowza. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Credit to @bud2380 for sharing the link earlier 0z CMC: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Credit to @bud2380 for sharing the link earlier 0z CMC: CMC down or something? Do we have a snowfall accumulation map? Looks like low and track is in good position for us here in Missouri. @winterfreak 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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