winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 41 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: CMC down or something? Do we have a snowfall accumulation map? Looks like low and track is in good position for us here in Missouri. @winterfreak I think it’s down. No snowfall map right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z EURO is flatter with the system. Lame for most. Map: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 hours ago, Clinton said: 0z GEFS This has Okie Land written all over it and then up thru MO into IN/S MI....it's questionable up this way as to how far north the moisture can wrap up into the defo zone. I'm interested to see how the models begin to digest the northern piece in the coming days as that could possibly lengthen the duration of snow falling. The 0z CMC is my best friend ATM and has been eerily consistent while the EURO & GFS have been going back n forth. To my eyes, it looks like the 0z CMC holds the neg tilt formation a bitt longer than the other models as the storm tracks thru the S MW/OHV. By Noon CST, the energy is forecast to hit the PAC NW and enter upper air network so I would expect to see some better data. Actually, once this digs into the 4 corners, we could still see some adjustments bc the models typically have a hard time handling these type of set ups. I'm leaning towards better phasing in the coming days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 0z EPS...it's been many many years since we can say that a true winter storm laid down snow from the Ozarks of OK/AR up thru the S MW/OHV.... 0z Euro Control... 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 51 minutes ago, Tom said: This has Okie Land written all over it and then up thru MO into IN/S MI....it's questionable up this way as to how far north the moisture can wrap up into the defo zone. I'm interested to see how the models begin to digest the northern piece in the coming days as that could possibly lengthen the duration of snow falling. The 0z CMC is my best friend ATM and has been eerily consistent while the EURO & GFS have been going back n forth. To my eyes, it looks like the 0z CMC holds the neg tilt formation a bitt longer than the other models as the storm tracks thru the S MW/OHV. By Noon CST, the energy is forecast to hit the PAC NW and enter upper air network so I would expect to see some better data. Actually, once this digs into the 4 corners, we could still see some adjustments bc the models typically have a hard time handling these type of set ups. I'm leaning towards better phasing in the coming days. Seems odd to have such a suppressed storm track without artic air suppressing the pattern. Theses areas in SE MO do get big snows but typically when they do it's because the pattern is suppressed. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 6z Euro Control 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 6z EPS is unchanged GEFS took another step south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 hours ago, Clinton said: Good hit for Oklahoma folks, Jaster and Niko. No bueno for KC and Chicago. Models seem to be in a phase (pun intended) where they are de-amplifying the wave. Prolly some data ingest that "lost" the phasing with the northern piece of energy. I agree with Tom's comment. That inter-action will likely come back into play and again pull this NW about 1/2 a state (imho) from what we're seeing attm. The overnight runs no doubt have OH Peeps geeking-out, but I'd not want to be riding the southern edge of the +SN swath. And as you've mentioned, without any arctic air pressing S, these trends make little sense. If anything, the WAA should be over-performing as this turns the corner and heads NNE. I'd expect a lot of places that think they're getting only snow to end up with a messy mix and perhaps even switching to plain rain. Days and days to go, but I like it S of here at this range. @Stacsh is the LES guy, so his comments on this synoptic system are not to be taken seriously, lol. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z EPS is unchanged GEFS took another step south. Perfect. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Yes pls 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 DTX overnight much more "into it" The quiet weather comes to an end Wednesday as the next winter storm targets the region. Unlike many of the recent systems that have curled north over the Midwest keeping us on the warm side of the storm, models have held firm with a more southern track with the surface and mid level lows tracking from Texas (Wed 00Z) up to Ohio (Thurs 00Z) with southern MI solidly on the northwestern flank of the system. Many ingredients are becoming favorable for an accumulating snowfall over the area. The surface low will be maturing near the area, favorable mid level deformation noses into the southern Great Lakes, entrance region dynamics from an exiting jet and exit region dynamics from rapidly approaching jet, deformation region passing over the area, and a wealth of moisture to name a few. Just how much snow will fall remains in question as we are still 5 days out and a shift south would keep us more in a light snow scenario, and north could push heaviest snow to the north. For now we`ll highlight the potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday morning through the overnight. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Can we just stop here, lol and do the 0z GEM?? 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Seems odd to have such a suppressed storm track without artic air suppressing the pattern. Theses areas in SE MO do get big snows but typically when they do it's because the pattern is suppressed. The lack of a deep trough behind the closed low seems to allow it to eject more east instead of being pulled a bit NW seems to be the problem. There is some energy back there though, so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Black Hole said: The lack of a deep trough behind the closed low seems to allow it to eject more east instead of being pulled a bit NW seems to be the problem. There is some energy back there though, so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. Good news for you is that both scenarios treat Oklahoma well. Hope you guys get crushed down there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Yesterdays 18z and 00z runs went more south, but seeing the GFS trend a bit north again. As others noted, I would rather be on the northern edge than the southern. I expect some of the heavier stuff shown to the south to trend a bit north in the home stretch. The other issue, that I am not sure how it will play out, will be precipitation rates. This storm could still track in the right spot and be a cold rain if precip isn't heavy enough. I'd like to see the intensity trend back up, similar to yesterdays 12z runs on the EPS, etc. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z CMC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z CMC GEM for President! Still like the large area of coverage, track, etc. Just hold that and amp the qpf a bit at game-time as @Black Hole was saying. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z CMC Canadian and Euro show such a bigger overall swath of snow than what than what GFS is painting right now. I think someone else mentioned this as well, but the 12z GFS run did stop the movement south. The 3-4 previous runs from the GFS had a huge move south on every one of them. Curious if that is a sign of a movement back north from here? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: GEM for President! Still like the large area of coverage, track, etc. Just hold that and amp the qpf a bit at game-time as @Black Hole was saying. I will never complain about 3 to 4 inches of snow and the GEFS took a baby step back to the north. Like you said lets amp it up a little and maybe expand the coverage. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Canadian and Euro show such a bigger overall swath of snow than what than what GFS is painting right now. I think someone else mentioned this as well, but the 12z GFS run did stop the movement south. The 3-4 previous runs from the GFS had a huge move south on every one of them. Curious if that is a sign of a movement back north from here? The south bleed has stopped on the GEFS and it took a baby step back north. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z UKIE looked weak at 500mb and really opens up the wave but still manages to lay down some decent snow that'll cover up the ground... Both systems combined... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Snow has trended WAY down for Oklahoma in the latest runs. It seems to be related to a trailing shortwave trough. Read more about it on my twitter if you want, just don't want to type it all again lol 4 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Looking at the 12z run of the NAM, this model shows the best outcome for a better phase of this system compared to most of the other models. Better interaction of both waves is what will be needed to throw moisture/snow farther NW of the system. GFS seems to be the only stingy model in this regard but at the end, it may be correct. All the other models say different outcome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Full sampling for Monday 0z Suite?? I think that's the rumor anyways 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Another look at the 23/12z GEM and how it "pulls" the cold into the storm. DTX mentions how an arctic CF will come into place early week and provide a fresh supply of the chill. Verbatim for this region it's hard to get much better track with the MSLP ending up right in the center of Lk Erie 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z Euro with a little phasing bringing the snow further west. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Is there a real chance this thing comes back NW like it was showing yesterday? I really need it to in my backyard, I'm so close to the good stuff. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Another look at the 23/12z GEM and how it "pulls" the cold into the storm. DTX mentions how an arctic CF will come into place early week and provide a fresh supply of the chill. Verbatim for this region it's hard to get much better track with the MSLP ending up right in the center of Lk Erie The track cannot get any better for us. Plain perfection! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 Track needs to pull west for it to be a stronger storm. Otherwise it won’t be much of a snowstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 36 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Track needs to pull west for it to be a stronger storm. Otherwise it won’t be much of a snowstorm. We just need SNOW period, lol This was never a GHD-1 level event Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: Is there a real chance this thing comes back NW like it was showing yesterday? I really need it to in my backyard, I'm so close to the good stuff. lol Looking worse for us. Temps even look marginal for many. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 IWX .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Eyeballs here will generally be interested in one thing only: A possible winter storm. I continue to approach this system with a great degree of caution. But, I do concede that model agreement is pretty good at this time. Turning first to 00z 500-mb EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions), there is only a hit of disagreement among the ensemble members with respect to the trough`s intensity over the Southern Plains (ending 00z Thursday, as evidenced by a monopole over west TX). Toggling through the past couple GFS Ensemble and ECMWF Ensemble runs show that the GEFS has gradually shifted the surface low to the southeast while aloft, there has been very little deviation in its 500mb pattern. There is variability noted in the ECMWF Ens. with respect to the depth of the trough (consistent with the EOF plot) while there was little to no change in the location of the surface low. The last four runs of the in- house National Blend of Models has gradually moved the snow axis southeast away from the Lake. To make sense of the above: a winter storm likely moves through the OH River Valley region. I cannot reliably say who is going to see snow and how much. A shift in the upper-air pattern and low below will certainly impact snow totals. A shift southeast could result in little to no snow for half of the forecast area, while a shift northwest could bring an area of heavy snow to much of the forecast area. Just because the model agreement/consistency has been favorable now donesn`t mean that will continue between now and Wednesday afternoon (96 hours from now). With a subtle shift to the southeast noted today in some guidance, this trend will need to be monitored. The upper-level wave responsible for this storm will arrive onshore in the Pacific Northwest within the next 12 hours. Midweek system aside, temperatures will still be a touch mild for late-January at the start of the week. It may be briefly colder behind the midweek system with another shot of snow possible late in the week. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 hours ago, Tom said: 0z EPS...it's been many many years since we can say that a true winter storm laid down snow from the Ozarks of OK/AR up thru the S MW/OHV.... 0z Euro Control... This has been long overdue, should it all verify. A right and true "classic" in our era. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 DTX The next storm system that is expected to impact the region is just now coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig sharply SSE into the southwestern CONUS and/or far northern Mexico and cutoff briefly before additional northern stream jet energy drops through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/Great Plains and forces this system to eject east/northeastward and then eject northeastward into the southern plains early next week. This system will then pull northeast into the general vicinity by midweek as additional shortwave energy digging into the northwest quadrant of the CONUS leads to a general amplification of the western/central CONUS upper trough. Given the fact that this system cuts off and then is re-integrated back into the main upper level flow, the overall confidence in the precise positioning by next Wednesday (when it is currently expected to be nearest the region) is relatively low. During this sequence, a number of northern stream shortwaves, both leading and trailing this southern system, traverse the northern tier of the country. The lack of confidence in the eventual timing/strength of these features leads to additional uncertainty as the evolution of the northern stream will play a large role in the steering of this storm system. This should be a rather impactful system overall as its southern trajectory will allow for strong moisture transport back north into the eastern CONUS from the Gulf region with widespread rainfall and a band of decent snowfall along the north/northwest edge of its track. Perusing the model data today, the main question for the southern Great Lakes looks to be just how far north this area of snowfall works into the area. The main camp seems to suggest the most likely scenario will be for a "glancing" blow as this system remains progressive and does not allow for extensive moisture to lift/wrap north and northwest into the area. This would more or less support moderate snow amounts (say 2-5 inches) of at least parts of the area. Personally, it appears to me too early to make any clear calls given the myriad of concerns present that would impact the steering/evolution of this main system as it progresses into the general vicinity. With better sampling of the shortwave itself, and to a lesser degree northern stream shortwaves that will impact the steering currents, perhaps a slightly better feel for the system will develop by tomorrow. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2023 Report Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: This has been long overdue, should it all verify. A right and true "classic" in our era. Can say that again! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z Euro Looks a tad north. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 EAX AFD: With the midweek system, the trend has been to take the system further south. Models are now taking the low from the Red River Valley Tuesday night northeastward along the I-44 corridor into Illinois by Wednesday evening. This will put the local area on the north side of the precipitation shield as the system slides south of the area. Temperatures at this time look cold enough to support snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning however, precipitation should be fairly light. As such, it does look like light snow accumulation will be possible generally south of Highway 36 with heaviest amounts across central Missouri. That being said this system is just coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest and will be sampled better in the next day giving us a better idea of track this system will take. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not weather related, but…GOOO CHIEFS! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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