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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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North Texas will see a 50% chance of rain Monday. Tuesday brings 100% chance of rain.  
Most welcomed. It’s been very dry.  
Rain Monday. High 58. Low 39
Rain/Snow Tuesday. High 44 Low 34

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. 

Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Is this from better sampling or is this the NAM doing NAM things?

Probably the latter lol. But that said, it drops 6-8" (likely 3-6" adjusting for it being 33-34F) in my area so I'd take it. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it?

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14 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it?

It is NOT common, that's why it's so interesting. Too bad we have such lame back-drop temps this winter. Could've been a monster. 1002 mb SLP is laughable. Just yesterday? we were seeing multiple models flashing as low as 983 mb in NOH. Models are, shall we say, just a bit drunk in the d5+ range

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well the 0z NAM and GFS are looking better. Let's bring it north some more.

GFS stronger now - sub 1000 and maintains deeping into Erie before x-fer. Steps back in a very positive direction. I will sleep well

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAM's going to go big I think once in range. Even tonight's GFS dumps bigly on NWAR

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

More like an expanded snow shield.  There are a few members that hit central MO well but Oklahoma and SE MO still remain the target area on most ensembles.

1674734400-6tAqI1BIgOc.png

Hmm. Hopefully we get a nice jump NW tomorrow. Maybe start of a trend? Need a nice jump northwest tomorrow or Monday for our back yard. 

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5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. 

Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". 

Pretty wild spread. I was reading the disco earlier. I understand going with the lower amount based on that and possible melting in spite of a time when its really going to puke great snow here by all modeled outcomes. Fun couple of days coming up. 

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While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts.  0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots.  I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows.

0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI...

image.gif

 

0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way...

image.png

 

 

0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems...

1.png

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@Tom I like what I see there. There's huge agreement amongst most members of my area getting 6-10 inches at the moment. 

@jaster220, I think you're getting cut off this one but looks like the arctic express after may drop off some snow up there after. 

It looks like a repeat blitz to start February, but we gotta see how this shakes out first.

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts.  0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots.  I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows.

0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI...

image.gif

 

0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way...

image.png

 

 

0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems...

1.png

6z GFS showing that interaction with the northern wave and keeps snow falling in the KC area long enough to lay down 2-4 inches.  @jaster220 @Niko along with the Okies 🙂 will like the look of this mornings runs.

1674745200-UhIzKH01IRY.png

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06z GEFS...

image.png

 

Some pretty decent hits for a lot of us who have been missed... 

image.png

 

0z EPS...the theme here is pretty clear that we have ourselves the 1st significant snowfall of the season that'll lay down a fairly wide swath of snow as @jaster220commented on the other day.  We haven't yet seen a southern streamer to deliver the goods this winter season, so lets see how this one pan outs.

image.png5.png

 

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

06z Euro...

2.gif

1.gif

Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. 

Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. 

Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with.

Unless this pulls NW.  you should score decent for this storm.  I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area.  

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Just now, Stacsh said:

Unless this pulls NW.  you should score decent for this storm.  I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area.  

Thx. Yeah the NW track is a double-edged sword here. More dynamic system over all and I end up with either a dry-slotting or some flip to a mixy mess. This one being more pedestrian is sadly, just what this place needs.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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